1,3-Isobenzofurandione, polymer with 2,2'-oxybis(ethanol)

Polyester Polyol: Recent Commodity Market Intelligence Analysis

I. Market Price Dynamics
- Latest Quotations: As of June 18, 2026, polyester polyol prices in Shandong, North China, South China, and East China markets show negotiated prices as follows: AA/BG at RMB 12,500–13,000/ton; AA/EG at RMB 11,500–12,000/ton; and AA/BG/EG at RMB 12,000–12,800/ton. Overall market quotations remain stable.
- Price Trend: The product’s average price in 2025 was RMB 71,500/ton (tax-inclusive), representing a 3.2% decline year-on-year from 2024; the 2026 forecasted average price is expected to slightly decrease to RMB 70,800/ton—a reduced decline of 1.0%—indicating a mature cost-pass-through mechanism and entry into a stabilized profitability phase.

II. Supply-Demand Analysis
- Supply Situation:
- New Capacity Additions: From Q4 2025 to Q3 2026, companies including Xuchuan Chemical and Wanhua Chemical added approximately 65,000 tons of effective capacity, corresponding to an estimated incremental output value of ~RMB 590 million.
- Capacity Distribution: The East China region remains the core industrial agglomeration zone, accounting for 63.7% of total national capacity and sales volume in 2025; Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces alone contributed 41.2% of national shipment volume. Meanwhile, the South China region has rapidly emerged, driven by its robust new-energy vehicle (NEV) industry chain—Guangdong Province’s procurement volume surged 52.9% year-on-year in 2025, making it the second-largest demand hub after East China.
- Demand Situation:
- Downstream Penetration Rate: The adoption rate of renewable polyester polyol in NEV interior components rose from 8.3% in 2024 to 15.6% in 2025, and is projected to exceed 22% in 2026. In wind power applications, the substitution rate of renewable materials for blade core materials is expected to increase from 11% in 2025 to 18% in 2026.
- Application Areas: Key end-use segments include rigid foam panels and sandwich boards; composite formulations for refrigerator/freezer insulation; composite formulations for water heater insulation; spray-applied rigid foams; wood-imitation materials; one-component rigid foams; ultra-low-density packaging foams; and rigid microcellular shoe sole materials.

III. Market Characteristics & Competitive Landscape
- Technical Routes: Glycolysis–re-polymerization of waste PET bottles remains the dominant commercial process, accounting for 78.4% of actually commissioned capacity in 2025; plant-oil-based routes (e.g., castor oil, soybean oil) represent 14.6%, primarily applied in high-end medical-grade elastomers; emerging pathways such as microalgae fermentation remain at pilot-scale testing stages with no commercial shipments yet.
- Competitive Landscape: Global polyester polyol producers include Huafeng Group, Stepan, COIM, Xuchuan Chemical, BASF, and Huntsman. In 2025, the top ten global manufacturers collectively held approximately 41.0% of global market share. Within China, Huafeng Group, Wanhua Chemical, and Xuchuan Chemical lead the market, leveraging technological advantages and large-scale production capabilities.

IV. Market Drivers & Risks
- Drivers:
- Policy Support: Environmental regulations are accelerating the development of renewable polyester polyols—for instance, the ‘14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development’ mandates green building material procurement guidelines.
- Growing Downstream Demand: Rapid expansion of the NEV and wind power sectors is significantly boosting demand for polyester polyols.
- Technological Advancement: Continuous R&D efforts by enterprises have enhanced production efficiency and product quality—for example, Huafeng Group has mastered fatty-acid-directed polymerization catalytic technology, while Xuchuan Chemical has achieved breakthroughs in precise hydroxyl-value control of polyols.
- Risks:
- Raw Material Price Volatility: Fluctuations in prices of key raw materials—such as dicarboxylic acids and diols—impact gross margins and quotation stability.
- Product Homogenization: Commodity-grade products are prone to price wars, whereas high-end customers require long-term qualification, batch consistency, and comprehensive technical support services.
- Stricter Environmental Regulations: Increasing regulatory stringency raises corporate expenditures on compliance, testing, certification, and supply-chain transparency.

V. Future Market Outlook
- Market Size: China’s polyester polyol market size is projected to further rise to RMB 5.47 billion in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 12.5%—slightly higher than the 2025 growth rate—reflecting stronger demand inelasticity driven by improved downstream customer acceptance and enhanced supply-chain stability.
- Price Trend: With scale-driven cost reductions and narrowing price differentials versus petrochemical-pathway feedstocks, product prices are expected to remain stable or undergo marginal downward adjustments.
- Technology Development: Bio-based and biodegradable ‘green’ products will become focal areas for future development; enterprises must intensify R&D investment and strengthen innovation capabilities.
- Competitive Landscape: Intensifying competition is anticipated as new capacities come online and downstream demand expands; firms must adopt differentiated strategies—including product specialization, service integration, and sustainability leadership—to enhance competitiveness.