Phosphatidylcholine

PC (Polycarbonate) Recent Market Intelligence Report

I. Market Price Dynamics

- Recent Price Trend: According to Echemnet data, PC prices exhibited a significant downward trend from June to July 2026. The reference price stood at RMB 16,033.33 per ton in early June, declining to RMB 12,850.00 per ton by July 10—a drop exceeding 19%.
- Drivers of Price Volatility: This decline was primarily attributable to multiple factors, including supply-side easing, slowing demand growth, and mounting pressure on export markets.

II. Supply-Demand Analysis

- Supply Side:
- Capacity Expansion: Between 2025 and 2026, new PC production capacity totaling over 1.2 million tons/year came online from enterprises including Wanhua Chemical, Lihua Yi Group, and Zhejiang Petrochemical, intensifying supply-side looseness and constraining price elasticity.
- Operating Rates: PC industry operating rates are projected to reach 87%, 94%, and 95% in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively—indicating entry into a cyclical upturn.

- Demand Side:
- Consumption Growth: China’s apparent PC consumption reached 3.12 million tons in 2025, representing a 10.5% year-on-year increase; it is forecast to rise to 3.28 million tons in 2026, a slower growth rate of 5.1%.
- Downstream Applications: Key growth drivers include automotive lightweighting; mass adoption of foldable smartphones, AR/VR devices, and Mini-LED backlight modules in electronics; and accelerated substitution of PC solar panels in green building certification projects within the construction sector—collectively forming a multi-dimensional fundamental support for PC demand growth.

III. Import-Export Situation

- Imports: Accelerated domestic production has led to a continuous decline in PC imports. In 2025, China’s net PC import volume stood at 470,000 tons, down 8.2% year-on-year; the import share narrowed from 28.6% in 2020 to 15.1%.
- Exports: With the expansion of anti-dumping investigations by Europe and the U.S. targeting Chinese chemical products, PC export dependence is expected to fall from 8.3% in 2025 to 6.9% in 2026, resulting in a net export reduction of approximately 42,000 tons.

IV. Market Structure Analysis

- Capacity Utilization Rate: National PC total capacity is projected to reach 4.15 million tons in 2026, while apparent consumption stands at 3.28 million tons—yielding an overall capacity utilization rate of just 79.0%, below the breakeven threshold of 85%, thereby continuously compressing profit margins for small- and medium-sized enterprises.
- Value Chain Profit Distribution: Upstream bisphenol-A (BPA) segment faces downward pressure on its price floor due to concentrated domestic capacity additions in 2026, strengthening cost advantages for integrated, vertically aligned leading enterprises. In contrast, the midstream polymerization segment confronts pronounced challenges related to capacity utilization, whereas downstream modification and end-use application segments remain highly dynamic and profitable.

V. Future Outlook

- Price Trend: Given ongoing supply-side easing, moderating demand growth, and export market headwinds, PC prices are expected to remain subdued for the near term—though further downside appears limited.
- Supply-Demand Balance: As newly added capacity is gradually absorbed and downstream application areas continue expanding, the PC supply-demand equilibrium is anticipated to improve progressively, with industry operating rates rising further.
- Market Structure: The PC market will increasingly exhibit structural divergence. Vertically integrated players possessing self-sufficient raw material supply, certified optical-grade or medical-grade product capabilities, and deep strategic partnerships with top-tier customers will hold distinct competitive advantages.
- Technological Innovation: Specialty PC grades—including high-flow, low-birefringence, and UV-resistant variants—are expected to see substantial volume growth in emerging applications such as AR/VR optical lenses, automotive HUD projection plates, and photovoltaic junction box insulating brackets—serving as core drivers for unit-value enhancement. Concurrently, commercial-scale production of bio-based PC has achieved substantive breakthroughs, potentially overcoming the rigid carbon-footprint constraints inherent in conventional petroleum-based routes.