Polyvinyl chloride

PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) Resin: Recent Market Intelligence Report

I. Market Price Dynamics
- Spot Prices:
- PVC SG-5: Quotations vary by region. For instance, Henan Qianyuexing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. quotes RMB 4,650/ton in Shandong Province, RMB 4,400/ton in Shanxi Province, and RMB 4,350/ton in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Both Henan Kaijie Water Treatment Co., Ltd. and Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical Co., Ltd. quote RMB 5,000/ton for domestic premium-grade PVC SG-5.
- PVC SG-8: Henan Qianyuexing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. (Shihua) quotes RMB 4,600/ton in Shandong Province.
- Ethylene-based PVC: Henan Qianyuexing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. quotes RMB 5,100/ton for Ethylene-based PVC 70, RMB 4,900/ton for Ethylene-based PVC 1000, RMB 4,850/ton for Ethylene-based PVC 700, and RMB 5,000/ton for Ethylene-based PVC 60.

- Futures Prices:
- As of July 7, 2026, the main futures contract for PVC traded within a range of RMB 4,406–4,462/ton, closing at RMB 4,449/ton—a decline of RMB 24/ton (?0.54%) from the previous trading day.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side:
- The domestic PVC industry has entered a capacity-peak phase, with no large-scale new capacity additions expected throughout the year; only minor ethylene-based units are undergoing commissioning trials, resulting in overall stable total capacity.
- The concentrated maintenance period in Q2 has concluded; previously idled facilities resumed operations gradually in early July, lifting the industry’s overall operating rate to 68.67%. Calcium carbide-based plants—facing rising calcium carbide feedstock costs and sustained losses—have proactively reduced operating loads, leading to a modest decline in their operating rate. In contrast, ethylene-based plants have benefited from slight declines in overseas ethylene and vinyl chloride prices, narrowing their losses and allowing for modest load increases; however, their overall operating rate remains below 50%, remaining at a relatively low level.
- Scheduled maintenance volume in July is lower month-on-month, and circulating supply is steadily increasing. This rise in physical market liquidity is directly transmitted to the futures market, persistently capping upside potential for futures prices.

- Demand Side:
- Both domestic and external demand are weakening concurrently. The real estate sector continues to weigh on domestic demand: from January to May, year-on-year growth in newly commenced and completed floor area remained negative, resulting in scarce orders for downstream fabricated product manufacturers. In early July, the comprehensive operating rate of downstream processors fell below the average level for the same period in prior years. Downstream fabricators generally adopt a “just-in-time procurement” strategy without bulk restocking, while traders exhibit weak willingness to accumulate inventory. Spot transactions remain predominantly demand-driven, failing to bolster spot price strength and thereby indirectly dragging down futures performance.
- Export markets shifted from high growth in Q1 to continuous contraction in Q2. In Q1, an export tax rebate policy adjustment triggered a pre-policy window “rush to export,” pushing monthly PVC export volumes to a record high. In April, following implementation of the revised export tax rebate policy, export volumes dropped sharply. Although exports saw modest recovery thereafter, international competitive pressure intensified significantly. India’s import tariff exemption for PVC has been extended only until July 15; upon expiry, the 7.5% tariff will be reinstated, further eroding China’s export price competitiveness. Additionally, the onset of the monsoon season across South Asia is causing temporary cooling in procurement demand. Consequently, external demand is unable to offset the domestic demand shortfall, cementing an overall weak demand outlook for the full year.

III. Inventory Dynamics
- Total industry-wide inventory (including manufacturer and social inventories) remains at historically high levels for this time of year. After a brief drawdown in late June, inventories rebounded slightly in July due to increased supply inflows and seasonal slowdowns in downstream consumption. Both producer and social inventories rose concurrently, indicating significant stockpiling across midstream links of the value chain.

Analysis & Outlook
- Short-Term: Fundamental conditions for PVC show little prospect of meaningful improvement in the near term. Rising supply, sluggish demand, and elevated inventories continue to exert downward pressure on prices. While production costs provide limited downside support, they are insufficient to trigger a sustained upward price trend. Having undergone a prior sharp correction, downside risks have been largely priced in; PVC futures prices are thus expected to stabilize and trade sideways.
- Long-Term: With continued development of the construction and infrastructure sectors, demand for PVC resin is projected to grow further. Increasingly stringent environmental regulations will prompt enterprises to accelerate technological upgrades and product innovation, enhance resource utilization efficiency, and improve environmental performance—thereby driving the industry toward low-carbon, green development.

Projections
- Price Trend: PVC prices are likely to remain range-bound in the short term, constrained by cost support on the downside and inventory overhang on the upside. Over the longer term, gradual demand recovery and optimization of supply structure may foster a steady stabilization and eventual rebound in PVC prices.
- Supply-Demand Evolution: On the supply side, output is expected to increase as maintenance-idled units resume operations and newly commissioned capacities gradually ramp up. On the demand side, gradual recovery in the real estate sector and stabilization of export markets may progressively lift demand.
- Inventory Trend: Inventories are likely to remain elevated in the near term but are expected to gradually decline as demand recovers and supply-side adjustments take effect.