2-БЕНЗОИЛАЦЕТАНИЛИД

# N-Acetyl Aniline Recent Commodity Market Dynamics Intelligence (Mid-October 2026 — November 12)

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## I. Price Intelligence Summary

| Date | Source | Specific Price | Remarks |
|------|----------|----------|------|
| Nov 11 | SunSirs Quote Dynamics | Specific value not disclosed | Only published baseline price model explanation |
| Nov 10 | SunSirs Quote Dynamics | Specific value not disclosed | Only published baseline price model explanation |
| Nov 9 | SunSirs Quote Dynamics | Specific value not disclosed | Only published baseline price model explanation |

**Core Judgment:** Over the past month, no explicit market transaction prices or reference prices have been disclosed for N-acetyl aniline. The SunSirs platform has published only the baseline price calculation methodology (including adjustment coefficient K and premium/discount C) for three consecutive days (Nov 9–11), without providing actual quote figures.

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## II. Upstream Raw Material Aniline Price Correlation Analysis

Although direct quotes for N-acetyl aniline are missing, the price trend of its core upstream raw material, **aniline**, is clearly traceable, constituting a crucial cost-side signal:

| Time Point | Aniline Reference Price (CNY/ton) | Month-over-Month Change |
|-----------|---------------------|----------|
| Oct 1 | 14,900 | — |
| Oct 22 | 16,600 | +11.41% (vs. early Oct) |
| Oct 28 – Nov 4 | 16,600 | Flat |
| Nov 10 | 15,700 | **-5.42%** (vs. early Nov) |

**Key Signal:** Aniline experienced a strong surge in October from 14,900 CNY/ton to 16,600 CNY/ton (an increase of 11.41%), followed by a one-week plateau at high levels in early November, before a sharp drop to 15,700 CNY/ton on Nov 10. This \"surge and retreat\" trend has directly weakened the raw material cost support for N-acetyl aniline.

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## III. Industry Chain and Policy Environment Intelligence

### 3.1 Rigid Rise in Industry Compliance Costs

Based on the evolution of 2026 fine chemical industry policies:
- Units with comprehensive energy consumption exceeding **1.8 tons of standard coal/ton** have been classified as restricted or to be eliminated, with **32% of backward production capacity forcibly shut down** nationwide;
- The threshold for solvent recovery efficiency has been raised to **over 98%**; enterprises involved in high-risk processes such as diazotization must complete continuous flow technology substitution assessments by 2028;
- The proportion of safety production expenses in revenue has risen from 3.2% in 2023 to **5.8%** in the first half of 2026, with compliance retrofit costs for a single production line reaching over 60% of new construction investment.

### 3.2 Structural Differentiation in Downstream Demand

- **Pesticide Sector:** In 2025, demand for o-chloro-N-acetylacetanilide (a similar derivative) was approximately 89,000 tons, up 3.2% year-on-year; the demand share for high-purity products rose to 45.6%;
- **Dye Sector:** Affected by stricter environmental regulations and export friction, demand in 2025 was approximately 41,000 tons, down 1.8% year-on-year;
- **Pharmaceutical Intermediates:** Usage in 2025 was approximately 18,000 tons, up 8.7% year-on-year; suppliers with WHO-PQ or FDA certification can obtain a **40%–60% price premium**.

### 3.3 Accelerating Industry Concentration

- The CR5 concentration of leading enterprises is expected to rise from 48% to higher levels; the average operating rate of small and medium enterprises has plummeted to **31%**, with full-year 2026 exit capacity expected to exceed 20,000 tons;
- Production capacity is accelerating its shift toward compliant parks in central and western regions such as Henan, Sichuan, and Ningxia, with new approved capacity in these three areas accounting for **54%** of the national total.

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## IV. Analytical Judgments

### 4.1 Short Term (Nov–Dec): Weakening Cost Support, Price Under Pressure

As aniline, the most core raw material for N-acetyl aniline, dropped from 16,600 CNY/ton to 15,700 CNY/ton, cost-side support has clearly weakened. Combined with weak downstream dye demand and seasonal slowdown in pesticide demand (though Q4 is peak season, stocking is nearing its end), N-acetyl aniline is highly likely to face **downward price pressure** in the short term.

### 4.2 Medium Term (2027): Compliance Barriers Reshape Profit Landscape

The industry is shifting from \"scale expansion\" to \"technology-driven high-value synthesis services.\" Projects adopting green power direct supply and circular economy models can convert by-products into positive annual revenue of **2,400 CNY/ton**, improving net economic benefits by **4,250 CNY/ton** compared to end-of-pipe treatment models. Leading enterprises with continuous flow processes and digital supply chain capabilities will capture excess profits, while small and medium enterprises lacking compliance capabilities will accelerate their exit.

### 4.3 Long Term (2028–2030): Dual Drivers of High-End and Internationalization

- Industry CR5 concentration will climb to **over 82%**; new entrants face seven barriers including technical know-how, upfront compliance investment, and certification time value;
- Enterprises with a material closed-loop recycling rate of over 75% have 32% lower compliance costs and can access more policy dividends;
- By 2030, the number of international standards led by China is expected to exceed 8, driving a **25%–30%** increase in export premium capabilities.

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## V. Forecasts and Recommendations

| Dimension | Judgment |
|------|------|
| **Price Trend** | Short term, prices will be pressured by the decline in aniline, with N-acetyl aniline quote ranges expected to drop; medium to long term, as the share of high-end products rises, the average price is expected to shift structurally upward |
| **Supply-Demand Structure** | Supply side continues to contract (elimination of backward capacity); demand side shows rigid growth in pharmaceutical intermediates and weakness in dyes; overall presents a \"stable total volume, structural differentiation\" pattern |
| **Investment Logic** | Focus on leading enterprises with continuous flow technology, green power direct supply, and digital traceability systems; avoid high-energy-consuming, low-compliance small and medium capacity |
| **Risk Warning** | A rebound in aniline prices will impact costs in the short term; intensified environmental inspections may cause temporary supply disruptions |

> **Intelligence Gap Note:** Current specific transaction/reference price data for N-acetyl aniline is missing. It is recommended to subscribe to real-time quotes via SunSirs (100ppi.com) or directly contact major producers (such as enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Henan production areas) to obtain first-hand quotes, thereby completing precise judgments on the price dimension.