Whole Milk Powder (Standardized)

Whole Milk Powder Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Intelligence
1. Price Trends
- Recent Quotations: According to B2B data platform Shengyishe, the benchmark price of whole milk powder on July 16 and July 20, 2026, was not explicitly disclosed. However, based on industry trends and historical data, whole milk powder prices are influenced by multiple factors—including international dairy prices, domestic raw milk costs, supply-demand dynamics, and policy interventions.
- Historical Volatility: In May 2024, the average winning bid price for whole milk powder at the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction rose 2.4% month-on-month—the fourth consecutive increase—indicating a sustained recovery in international market prices. Domestically, raw milk prices declined 3.5% year-on-year in 2025; nevertheless, whole milk powder prices remained relatively stable, supported by import costs, processing expenses, and resilient demand.

2. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side: Major domestic dairy enterprises have enhanced raw milk quality and supply stability through self-owned farms or partnerships with large-scale contracted farms. Improvements in spray-drying technology have increased nutrient retention and solubility. In 2025, China imported 885,000 metric tons of whole milk powder, representing an import dependency ratio of approximately 39.6%, primarily sourced from New Zealand, the European Union, and Australia.
- Demand Side: Applications of whole milk powder have expanded into infant formula, adult nutritional supplements, bakery products, and foodservice sectors. In 2025, sales revenue in county-level markets grew 13.8% year-on-year—significantly outpacing growth in first-tier cities. Online channels contributed ~41.5% of total sales, with social e-commerce platforms such as Douyin (TikTok) and Kuaishou emerging as core hubs for brand awareness-building and conversion.

3. Policies and Regulation
- New Regulatory Frameworks: In early 2026, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation released the “Draft Review Criteria for Dairy Product Production Licenses” and the “Draft Review Criteria for Liquid Infant Formula Production Licenses,” imposing stricter controls over production standards and quality management. Notably, contract manufacturing, repackaging, and reconstitution of milk powder are prohibited—driving industry transformation toward high-quality, precision-oriented development.
- Policy Support: The National Health Commission’s “Adult Nutritional Supplementation Guidelines (2025 Trial Edition)” officially recommends whole milk powder as a high-quality source of protein and naturally occurring calcium for middle-aged and elderly populations. This policy endorsement is expected to stimulate bulk procurement by community health service centers and senior care institutions.

4. Industry Trends
- Premiumization: Functional fortified products—e.g., those enriched with probiotics, lactoferrin, or vitamin K2—experienced rapid growth, achieving RMB 3.86 billion in sales in 2025, up 42.7% year-on-year. In the premium segment (unit price ≥ RMB 120/kg), imported brands hold a 63.4% market share, while leading domestic brands have raised their share to 41.7% through advanced processing technologies.
- Digital Transformation: Enterprises are deploying Customer Data Platforms (CDPs) to build precise user profiles and enhance full-lifecycle operational efficiency via membership loyalty programs, subscription services, and AI-powered customer support. Over 60% of new product launches now occur exclusively online, reflecting increasingly sophisticated digital marketing strategies.

II. Analysis and Judgment
1. Price Support Factors
- Cost Pressures: Per Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs monitoring, raw milk procurement prices fell 3.5% year-on-year in 2025; however, eco-friendly packaging upgrades added RMB 1.2 per ton to packaging costs. Coupled with anticipated upward pressure on raw milk input costs, whole milk powder pricing exhibits structural resilience.
- Demand Drivers: Steady demand for infant formula, coupled with robust growth in adult nutritional supplementation—especially among middle-aged and elderly consumers (sales up 19.6% YoY)—has become a pivotal growth engine. Expanding applications in bakery and foodservice further broaden end-use scenarios.
- Policy Tailwinds: Recommendations in the Adult Nutrition Guidelines and institutional procurement policies for community health centers are expected to drive dual growth across both B2B (institutional procurement) and B2C (household consumption) segments.

2. Risks and Challenges
- Import Dependency: Domestic raw milk output grows at only ~2.5% annually—insufficient to fully meet demand—making imported whole milk powder a critical balancing mechanism. Geopolitical tensions, exchange rate fluctuations, and trade barriers may disrupt import cost stability.
- Intensifying Competition: Market concentration continues to rise, as industry leaders strengthen competitive moats through R&D investment, brand building, and channel integration. Smaller players face mounting cost pressures and compliance challenges, accelerating market consolidation toward top-tier firms.
- Evolving Consumer Preferences: Driven by health-consciousness and clean-label expectations, consumers increasingly prioritize ingredient transparency, functional additives, and sustainable packaging—requiring continuous innovation from manufacturers.

III. Future Outlook
1. Market Size and Growth
- Short-Term Forecast: China’s whole milk powder market is projected to reach RMB 30.85 billion in 2026, representing 8.4% YoY growth—slightly higher than the 2025 growth rate. Online channel sales share is expected to expand further, with functional and premium customized product lines serving as primary growth catalysts.
- Long-Term Projection: Under the base-case scenario for 2026–2031, China’s whole milk powder market will sustain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9%. By 2031, apparent consumption volume is forecast to reach 1.628 million metric tons, with market size exceeding RMB 64.5 billion—fueled jointly by steady expansion in industrial B2B applications and C2C product premiumization.

2. Price Trend Outlook
- Cost Pass-Through: Rising raw milk costs, upgraded packaging requirements, and environmental regulatory pressures may exert mild upward pressure on whole milk powder prices. However, enterprises are offsetting these pressures via product portfolio upgrades (e.g., functional fortification, personalized services), enabling stable-to-improving gross margins across the sector.
- International Linkage: Fluctuations in GDT auction prices, New Zealand’s milk supply reliability, and EU climate-related risk premiums will continue shaping domestic import cost structures and price transmission mechanisms.

3. Industry Trends
- Product Innovation: Functionally tailored and scenario-specific offerings—such as breakfast milk powder, nighttime sleep-support formulas, and post-exercise recovery powders—are gaining traction. Formulation R&D increasingly emphasizes bioavailability, digestive tolerance, and gut health—while clean-label imperatives drive reductions in artificial additives and process optimization.
- Channel Evolution: Online-offline integration is accelerating; content-driven and social e-commerce platforms are growing in influence, while private-domain traffic operations become central to maximizing customer lifetime value. B2B channels deepen collaboration with food manufacturers and foodservice providers through technical support and customized ingredient solutions.
- Sustainable Development: Low-carbon production practices and circular economy models are being widely adopted; eco-friendly packaging adoption rates are rising, and carbon footprint management is becoming a key product differentiator. Enterprises are enhancing end-to-end supply chain efficiency and resilience through smart farms, intelligent factories, and digital supply chain infrastructure.