シアン酸ナトリウム

I. Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. Price Trends
- The market price of sodium cyanate has recently shown a slight upward trend. Over the past week, the average market price in major regions rose from [X1] yuan per ton to [X2] yuan per ton, an increase of approximately [X3]%. Prices vary by product specification; industrial-grade sodium cyanate has seen a more pronounced price increase, while food-grade sodium cyanate prices have remained relatively stable.
- By region, the East China region, being the primary consumption and trading hub for sodium cyanate, leads in price increases, rising from [X4] yuan per ton to [X5] yuan per ton. Prices in North China followed suit, increasing from [X6] yuan per ton to [X7] yuan per ton. Price changes in South China were relatively minor, with a slight increase from [X8] yuan per ton to [X9] yuan per ton.
2. Supply Situation
- Regarding production operating rates, some sodium cyanate manufacturers have experienced a decline in operating rates due to equipment maintenance or environmental inspections. Statistics indicate that the current overall industry operating rate is approximately [X10]%, a decrease of [X11] percentage points compared to the same period last month. Large enterprises have maintained relatively stable operating rates at around [X12]%, while small and medium-sized enterprises have been more significantly affected, with operating rates dropping below [X13]%.
- In terms of production volume, due to the decline in operating rates, this week's sodium cyanate production decreased by approximately [X14] tons compared to the previous week. It is expected that production volume will not quickly return to normal levels in the short term.
3. Demand Situation
- Downstream industry demand is showing a divergent trend. In the electroplating industry, with the gradual recovery of the electronic products market, demand for sodium cyanate has increased. Some electroplating companies have increased their procurement of sodium cyanate to ensure production continuity.
- In the pharmaceutical intermediates industry, demand remains steadily growing. Ongoing new drug R&D and production projects continue to increase the need for sodium cyanate as a raw material, driving procurement in this sector.
- However, in the pesticide industry, demand has weakened due to the off-season for production. Some pesticide companies have reduced their procurement plans, leading to a decline in demand in this sector.
4. Import and Export Situation
- Imports: Recent sodium cyanate import volumes have decreased. The main reasons are that domestic market prices are relatively competitive compared to international markets, and some imported products have been affected by trade policy adjustments, leading to longer customs clearance times and reduced procurement enthusiasm among importers. Over the past month, sodium cyanate import volumes decreased by approximately [X15] tons compared to the previous month.
- Exports: Export volumes have remained relatively stable. China's sodium cyanate products are competitive in the international market, with major exports to Southeast Asia and South Asia. Recent export orders have not shown significant fluctuations, but rising international shipping costs have squeezed the profit margins of some export companies to some extent.
5. Inventory Situation
- Producer Inventories: Due to decreased production and increased demand from some downstream sectors, producer inventories have decreased. Currently, the inventory level of major producers is approximately [X16] tons, a decrease of about [X17]% compared to the same period last month.
- Trader Inventories: Traders are adopting a cautious stance towards market trends and are procuring carefully. Overall inventory levels remain stable, maintaining around [X18] tons.

II. Analysis and Judgment
1. Causes of Price Fluctuations
- The decline in operating rates on the supply side, leading to reduced production, is a primary factor driving the recent price increase in sodium cyanate. Equipment maintenance and environmental inspections have limited production, resulting in relatively tight market supply, which has supported price increases.
- Increased demand from some downstream industries on the demand side has also pulled prices up. Growth in demand from the electroplating and pharmaceutical intermediates industries has increased market procurement of sodium cyanate, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
- The reduction in import volumes has also affected domestic market supply to some extent, exerting upward pressure on prices.
2. Degree of Influence of Each Factor
- Supply-side factors have had a direct and significant impact on prices. The decline in operating rates and reduced production have directly led to market supply shortages, serving as the core driver of price increases.
- Among demand-side factors, the growth in demand from the electroplating and pharmaceutical intermediates industries has played an important supporting role, while the weakening demand from the pesticide industry has somewhat restrained price increases. However, overall demand growth still dominates.
- Import and export factors have had a relatively smaller impact on prices. The reduction in import volumes has only exacerbated domestic supply tightness to a certain extent, while the export situation has had little impact on domestic market prices.

III. Forecast
1. Price Trend Forecast
- In the short term, sodium cyanate market prices are expected to continue a slight upward trend. Since production operating rates are unlikely to recover quickly in the short term, the tight market supply situation will persist. Meanwhile, demand from the electroplating and pharmaceutical intermediates industries is expected to continue growing, providing strong support for prices. It is projected that within the next week, the average market price in major regions will rise to approximately [X19] yuan per ton.
- In the medium term, as equipment maintenance concludes and the impact of environmental inspections subsides, operating rates are expected to gradually recover, and production will increase, alleviating the tight supply situation. Additionally, the pesticide industry will gradually enter its peak production season, potentially increasing demand for sodium cyanate, although the overall growth rate may not match that of the electroplating and pharmaceutical intermediates industries. Therefore, the price increase rate for sodium cyanate is expected to narrow in the medium term, with prices likely to fluctuate between [X20] and [X21] yuan per ton.
2. Supply and Demand Forecast
- Supply: Over the next month, production operating rates are expected to gradually recover to around [X22]%, with corresponding increases in production and improved market supply. However, considering that some enterprises may continue to be affected by environmental factors, the pace of production recovery may be relatively slow.
- Demand: Demand in the electroplating industry is expected to continue growing, while demand in the pharmaceutical intermediates industry will also rise steadily. Demand in the pesticide industry is expected to increase with the arrival of the peak production season. Overall, sodium cyanate market demand is expected to continue growing over the next month, though the growth rate may vary across different industries.
3. Risk Warnings
- Policy Risks: Continued tightening of environmental policies may further restrict sodium cyanate production, leading to reduced supply and increased price volatility. Additionally, adjustments to trade policies may affect sodium cyanate imports and exports, impacting domestic market prices.
- Market Risks: Changes in downstream industry demand are uncertain. If demand growth in the electroplating or pharmaceutical intermediates industries falls short of expectations, or if demand in the pesticide industry remains sluggish, it could lead to a supply-demand imbalance and price declines.
- Competitive Risks: As sodium cyanate market prices rise, new enterprises may enter the market, increasing supply and intensifying competition. This could impact the market share and pricing power of existing companies.