2-Methyltetrahydrofuran

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence

1. Price Trends

• Domestic Market: Prices of 2-methyltetrahydrofuran (2-MeTHF) in the domestic market have recently shown a slight upward trend. The mainstream transaction price in the East China region is between 18,000 and 19,000 yuan per ton, an increase of approximately 300 to 500 yuan compared to last week; prices in the South China region are between 18,500 and 19,500 yuan per ton, with an increase of 400 to 600 yuan.
• International Market: Internationally, influenced by rising raw material costs and supply tightness in certain regions, 2-MeTHF prices have also increased. European market prices are between 2,500 and 2,700 USD per ton, an increase of approximately 50 to 100 USD compared to last week; US market prices are between 2,300 and 2,500 USD per ton, with an increase of 40 to 80 USD.

2. Supply Situation

• Domestic production capacity utilization remains relatively stable overall, with some enterprises experiencing slight production declines due to equipment maintenance or raw material supply issues. For example, a certain enterprise in East China has been shut down for a week for equipment repair, reducing market supply in the region by approximately 100 tons.
• Imports: Recent import volumes have decreased. Due to rising international shipping costs and adjustments to export policies in some countries, the quantity of 2-MeTHF imported into China is restricted. It is expected that this month's import volume will decrease by approximately 15% compared to last month.

3. Demand Situation

• Downstream industry demand is performing well. In the pharmaceutical sector, 2-MeTHF, as an important intermediate used in the synthesis of various drugs, sees continued demand growth alongside the steady development of the pharmaceutical industry.
• In the chemical sector, it is used in the production of specialty polymers and coatings. Recently, related enterprises have seen an increase in orders, leading to higher procurement volumes of 2-MeTHF. Some downstream enterprises have intensified procurement efforts to ensure production, building up inventory in advance.

4. Raw Material Costs

• Prices of key raw materials for 2-MeTHF have recently increased. For instance, the price of the primary raw material, tetrahydrofuran, has risen by 500 to 800 yuan per ton, increasing the production cost of 2-MeTHF. To maintain profit margins, production enterprises have generally raised their product prices.

Analysis and Judgment

1. Causes of Price Fluctuations: On the supply side, market supply has decreased due to domestic enterprise maintenance and reduced imports. On the demand side, downstream industry demand is robust with active procurement. This supply-demand imbalance is the primary driver of price increases. Additionally, rising raw material costs have further pushed up 2-MeTHF prices.

2. Market Activity: Market trading activity has recently increased. Traders and downstream enterprises are highly proactive in procurement, with an increase in market inquiries and transaction volumes, reflecting strong short-term demand for 2-MeTHF.

Forecast

1. Price Trends: It is expected that 2-MeTHF prices will continue to rise in the short term. As the supply tightness is unlikely to ease in the near future and downstream demand remains strong, prices are expected to increase further, although the rate of increase may gradually slow down due to market acceptance levels.

2. Supply Situation: After domestic production enterprises complete their maintenance, output will gradually recover. However, the recovery time for import volumes is uncertain due to international factors. Overall supply may remain relatively tight in the short term.

3. Demand Situation: Downstream industry demand is expected to maintain steady growth, particularly in the pharmaceutical and chemical sectors, which will continue to drive market demand for 2-MeTHF. However, as prices continue to rise, some downstream enterprises may become more cautious in their procurement, potentially slowing the rate of demand growth.