염화 칼륨

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i. price trends
>- domestic market: as of march 23, 2026, the national average price of potassium chloride stood at rmb 3,353.64 per ton, down 0.03% week-on-week. according to data dated march 19, the prevailing delivered price for domestic 60% crystalline potassium chloride ranged from rmb 3,250 to 3,300 per ton; port-stored 62% white potassium chloride was priced at rmb 3,530–3,580 per ton (down rmb 20/ton); and border-trade 62% russian white potassium chloride at the china–russia border loading platform was quoted at rmb 3,300–3,330 per ton (also down rmb 20/ton).
>- regional disparities: in northeast china—where spring ploughing demand is highly concentrated—the price of large-granule red potassium chloride has fallen below the government’s guided pricing level; meanwhile, lao potassium chloride, constrained by limited arrivals, saw spot prices rise modestly by rmb 20–30 per ton in certain regions.
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ii. supply-demand dynamics
>- supply side:
> - domestic potassium chloride: plant operating rates fluctuated between 45% and 65% during january–march 2026. smaller qinghai-based producers halted operations due to winter maintenance but gradually resumed production in early march. salt lake group’s 60% powdered crystalline potassium chloride maintained a delivered price range of rmb 3,250–3,300 per ton.
> - imported potassium chloride: cumulative imports reached over 1.3 million tons in january–march 2026, with 1.1883 million tons released between march 2–16 alone. major suppliers included china national chemical corporation (chemchina), china national agricultural production materials group (cnam pg), and salt lake group. port inventory stood at approximately 2.1 million tons as of march 10—15% lower year-on-year.
> - state reserve release: the national commercial fertilizer reserve (potassium chloride component) has already released 1.3 million tons, with mandated distribution by reserve-holding enterprises aligned with regional demand to alleviate localized tightness.
>- demand side:
> - agricultural demand: spring planting fertilizer preparation has entered its peak season; however, high prices are dampening procurement enthusiasm. compound fertilizer manufacturers’ operating rate stood at 38.48% (down 0.71 percentage points year-on-year), and raw material inventory cycles have shortened to 15–20 days.
> - industrial demand: potassium sulfate producers’ operating rate declined to 65%; mannheim-process plants have curtailed output amid cost pressures, purchasing potassium chloride strictly on a just-in-time basis.
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iii. policy environment & market sentiment
>- supply assurance & price stability: the national development and reform commission (ndrc) has directed reserve-holding enterprises to prioritize fertilizer supply for spring farming in northeast china and explicitly prohibited hoarding or speculative trading—prompting some traders to lower prices to expedite sales.
>- export restrictions: potassium chloride exports in january 2026 dropped 17.39% year-on-year, further intensifying domestic supply pressure amid weak global demand.
>- market psychology: traders’ willingness to sell has increased, yet downstream buyers’ “buy-on-rising-prices, not-on-falling-prices” mentality has led to sluggish transaction volumes, resulting in a stalemate and consolidation phase across the market.
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analysis & assessment
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i. downward price drivers
>1. supply abundance: import releases exceeding one million tons, coupled with state reserve disbursements, have increased market liquidity—even though port inventories remain relatively low—thereby easing supply constraints.
>2. weak demand: delayed agricultural procurement due to elevated prices, persistently low compound fertilizer plant utilization, and industrially driven cost-sensitive demand all contribute to subdued consumption.
>3. policy intervention: export restrictions and strategic reserve releases jointly constitute a “dual-pronged” regulatory mechanism that curbs speculative price inflation.
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ii. price support factors
>1. cost floor: the benchmark international potassium chloride contract price stands at usd 348 per ton (cfr china), translating into an estimated landed cost of rmb 2,800–2,900 per ton—providing a fundamental floor for domestic pricing.
>2. regional demand concentration: intense spring-farming demand in northeast china may sustain localized price support amid tight supplies.
>3. trader strategy: large-scale traders are deliberately managing shipment timing and volumes to prevent disorderly price collapse.
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outlook
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i. short term (1–2 months)
>- price trend: prices are expected to trade sideways within a rmb 3,300–3,500 per ton range. a modest rebound may occur in northeast china due to concentrated demand, but overall movement will remain capped by ample supply and active policy oversight.
>- key variables: timing and volume of imported potassium chloride arrivals at ports; intensity and pace of state reserve releases; progress of spring-ploughing procurement.
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ii. medium term (3–6 months)
>- price trend: gradual downward adjustment anticipated, as quarterly import arrivals accelerate (projected average monthly arrivals of 500,000–600,000 tons), pushing port inventories above 2.5 million tons—likely driving prices toward rmb 3,200–3,300 per ton.
>- demand divergence: agricultural base demand will continue anchoring the price floor, whereas industrial demand remains subdued under persistent cost pressure.
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iii. long term (6–12 months)
>- supply-demand rebalancing: should international potassium prices hold steady at usd 340–360 per ton, domestic price downside will be structurally limited. full-year average prices are projected to range between rmb 3,200 and 3,400 per ton.
>- risk factors: geopolitical conflicts disrupting global supply chains; extreme weather events impacting agricultural demand; further tightening of export controls.