Potassium chloride

Potassium Chloride: Recent Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Intelligence
(A) Price Trends
1. Domestic Prices: According to B2B data provider Shengyishe, the reference price for imported potassium chloride on July 24 stood at RMB 3,516.67 per metric ton, down 1.86% from RMB 3,583.33 per metric ton on July 1. Overall, prices declined throughout July; between July 13 and 24, prices stabilized within the range of RMB 3,516.67–3,566.67 per metric ton.
2. Enterprise Quotations: Significant price variation exists across enterprises, origins, and delivery locations. For instance, on July 24, Jinan Angxin Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 3,700 per metric ton for Russian potassium chloride (Jinan City, Shandong Province); Jinan Jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 2,600 per metric ton for Russian potassium chloride and RMB 3,100 per metric ton for Canadian potassium chloride (both delivered in Jinan City, Shandong Province); Guangzhou Tianyue Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 2,950 per metric ton for Israeli potassium chloride (Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province).

(B) Inventory Status
1. As of the second week of July 2026, port inventory of potassium chloride totaled approximately 2.999 million metric tons—up by 121,000 metric tons week-on-week and up by 1.133 million metric tons year-on-year compared to the same period last year. Port inventory has nearly reached the domestic market’s safety threshold of 3 million metric tons.
2. Potassium chloride imports weakened significantly in June, with total import volume at 1.3846 million metric tons—down 224,300 metric tons (13.94%) month-on-month from 1.6089 million metric tons in May. Nevertheless, cumulative imports from January to June remained substantially higher year-on-year.

(C) Supply-Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side
- Global potash supply shows signs of contraction. Uralkali has initiated scheduled maintenance of its granulation facilities for Q3, reducing granular potassium chloride output by 30–40%. Belarusian Potash Company (Belaruskali) plans to cut its potassium chloride production by 500,000 metric tons in H2 2026, with the reduction borne primarily by export volumes.
- Russia remains China’s largest potassium fertilizer supplier: 483,200 metric tons arrived in June 2026; Laos ranked second with 408,400 metric tons; Canada third with 201,500 metric tons; and Belarus fourth with 188,400 metric tons.
2. Demand Side
- Domestically, the fertilizer industry is in its traditional off-season. Downstream compound fertilizer and Mannheim-process potassium sulfate producers maintain low operating rates, resulting in insufficient bulk raw-material procurement demand—only small-scale, just-in-time replenishment occurs.
- In Southeast Asia, potassium chloride imports by Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia—the three largest regional consumers—declined YoY by 25%, 28%, and 9%, respectively, during Jan–May 2026, collectively falling by ~570,000 metric tons. This reflects post-super-cycle correction following exceptionally strong purchases in 2025, with sluggish end-user demand and increasingly conservative buyer procurement behavior.

(D) Overseas Developments
1. Globally, the potash market continues its off-season pattern characterized by weak supply and weak demand, exerting downward pressure on prices. In the standard MOP (muriate of potash) market, FOB prices at Vancouver, Northwest Europe, Baltic/Black Sea, Jordan, Israel, and Chile all declined; CFR (cost and freight) prices for Southeast Asia also fell. In the granular MOP market, FOB prices showed mixed movements: NOLA (New Orleans), USA, remained unchanged week-on-week; CFR prices for Brazil held steady; while CFR prices for Thailand and Vietnam rose.
2. Ongoing EU restrictions on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers have compelled both countries to shift export focus from Europe toward Asia. Russia has overtaken Canada to become Indonesia’s top potassium chloride supplier, while Belarusian shipments to Indonesia surged 72% YoY. Canada, meanwhile, has stepped in to fill the European supply gap, driving a global trade rebalancing characterized as “Eastward Shift of Russian-Belarusian Exports and Westward Compensation by Canada.” Southeast Asia has thus become the primary region absorbing this redirected supply capacity—and bearing the greatest pricing pressure.

II. Analysis and Assessment
(A) Reasons for Price Decline
1. Domestic fertilizer demand remains weak amid the traditional off-season, with downstream enterprises operating at low capacity utilization rates and limited procurement demand. With ample market supply and strong trader incentives to clear inventory and secure cash flow, spot prices continue to soften.
2. The global potash market’s dual weakness—on both supply and demand sides—has led to downward price pressure internationally, exerting spillover effects on the domestic market.
3. Although June imports declined MoM, cumulative imports from January to June increased significantly YoY, resulting in overall supply surplus in the domestic market.

(B) Reasons for Inventory Buildup
1. May saw the highest monthly import volume of the year, leading to a surge of cargoes arriving at ports and continuously increasing port inventory burdens.
2. Weak domestic demand and insufficient market absorption capacity have resulted in sustained inventory accumulation.

III. Outlook
(A) Short-Term Outlook
1. Potassium chloride prices are expected to remain weak but stable in the near term. High port inventories and seasonal demand weakness jointly suppress market sentiment; any meaningful rebound will likely await the commencement of autumn fertilizer preparation activities.
2. While reduced global potash output in H2 may eventually influence domestic markets, the prevailing off-season domestic demand weakness is unlikely to reverse in the short term, making significant price increases improbable.

(B) Long-Term Outlook
1. Global new potash supply capacity is likely to remain limited, whereas demand may grow steadily driven by expanding cultivated land area and rising proportions of high-value crops. Consequently, the global potash supply-demand balance remains tight, supporting an upward-biased price trend (i.e., prices more likely to rise than fall).
2. China maintains high dependence on imported potash; therefore, international supply-demand dynamics and price fluctuations exert substantial influence on the domestic market. Should overseas suppliers sustain production cuts, domestic import costs may rise, potentially pushing up domestic potassium chloride prices.