Potassium chloride

Chloride Potassium Market Dynamics Report (Recent Update)

I. Price Dynamics
1. Domestic Market:
- Domestic large-scale producers’ ex-factory prices for 60% potassium chloride (powder and crystals): Qinghai Salt Lake Group and Qinghai CGN Chemical Co., Ltd. quote RMB 2,800/ton—unchanged week-on-week; ex-factory average price for 57% powder (bulk) from smaller Qinghai producers was RMB 2,650/ton—also unchanged week-on-week.
- Port prices for potassium chloride: For 60% Laos-origin white powder, the mainstream policy price (ex-warehouse pickup) stands at RMB 3,050/ton, while the non-mainstream market average price is RMB 3,250/ton—down RMB 25/ton week-on-week; for 62% white potassium chloride, the mainstream policy price is RMB 3,150/ton, and the non-mainstream market average price is RMB 3,450/ton—down RMB 40/ton week-on-week; for 60% large red granules, the mainstream policy price is approximately RMB 3,300/ton, and the non-mainstream market average price is approximately RMB 3,425/ton—both unchanged week-on-week.
- Border trade potassium chloride prices: For 62% white potassium chloride (truck-loading board basis), the mainstream policy price is RMB 3,150/ton—unchanged week-on-week; the non-mainstream market average price is also RMB 3,150/ton—down RMB 5/ton week-on-week.

2. International Market:
- Granular potassium chloride prices in Brazil have declined for the first time since December 2025; overall market procurement sentiment for potash fertilizers has cooled, with attention shifting toward nitrogenous fertilizers.
- Standard muriate of potash (MOP) market sentiment remains robust, supported by strong demand from Asia.

II. Supply-Demand Situation
1. Supply:
- Domestic potassium chloride production capacity continues to expand; leading enterprises—including Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd. and Xinjiang Guotou Luokuang Co., Ltd.—account for over 60% of total domestic capacity.
- Regarding imported potassium chloride, the execution of import contracts priced at USD 348/ton is now underway; beginning in Q2 2026, inbound volumes of imported potash are expected to rise steadily, significantly improving overall market liquidity.
- Port inventory of potassium chloride has increased: As of the second week of June 2026, port inventory stood at approximately 2.584 million tons—indicating an increase in supply availability.

2. Demand:
- The agricultural sector remains the dominant consumer of potassium chloride, accounting for over 85% of total consumption. With the deepening implementation of China’s national food security strategy and the advancement of high-standard farmland construction, demand for premium-grade potash fertilizer exhibits rigid growth.
- Industrial-grade potassium chloride usage continues to broaden across food additives, pharmaceutical raw materials, electroplating, and other sectors; however, recent market procurement willingness for potash fertilizers has weakened—particularly in granular potassium chloride markets such as Brazil, which has entered its seasonal low-demand period.

III. Market Analysis & Outlook
1. Price Trend:
- In the short term, supported by spring planting-related pre-fertilization demand and currently tight supply conditions, potassium chloride prices are expected to remain firm, with potential minor fluctuations arising from localized supply shortages.
- Looking ahead to the full year 2026, increased import supply will help alleviate peak supply tightness. Domestic potassium chloride prices are projected to follow a pattern of “high-level volatility followed by gradual, moderate softening”; however, international cost support will likely limit the extent of any decline.

2. Supply-Demand Relationship:
- Expectations of supply tightness will gradually ease, as increasing imported supplies significantly enhance market liquidity.
- On the demand side, while agricultural demand remains structurally robust, the price-dampening effect on demand will persist; meanwhile, industrial demand has softened due to seasonal low-demand conditions.

IV. Forward Outlook
1. Price Forecast:
- In H2 2026, potassium chloride prices are expected to undergo moderate, gradual softening following a period of high-level volatility; nevertheless, price fluctuations may still occur due to factors including international market pricing, ocean freight costs, and raw material input costs.
- Long-term, as domestic potassium chloride production capacity continues expanding and import dependency declines, prices are expected to gradually stabilize.

2. Supply-Demand Forecast:
- On the supply side, domestic potassium chloride production capacity will continue to grow, and imported supplies will also increase steadily—leading to progressively more ample market supply.
- On the demand side, agricultural demand will maintain rigid growth, while industrial demand may fluctuate depending on macroeconomic conditions and sector-specific development trends.