Polyacrylamide

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence

1. **Price Trends**
- The domestic polyacrylamide market is experiencing narrow fluctuations. The mainstream quotations for anionic polyacrylamide in some regions range from 12,000 to 14,000 RMB/ton, cationic polyacrylamide from 18,000 to 22,000 RMB/ton, and non-ionic polyacrylamide from 11,000 to 13,000 RMB/ton. Compared to last week, the price fluctuation amplitude is approximately ±200–500 RMB/ton.
- Price adjustments vary among manufacturers based on their production status, inventory levels, and market strategies. Prices from some large manufacturers remain relatively stable, while smaller manufacturers are offering slight discounts to boost sales.

2. **Supply Situation**
- The industry’s overall operating rate remains around 70%–75%. The operating rates of some manufacturers have declined due to factors such as equipment maintenance and raw material supply issues, leading to a slight decrease in market supply.
- Regarding new capacity, no large-scale new installations have recently come online, keeping the market supply structure relatively stable. Although some manufacturers have expansion plans, they have not yet entered the substantive construction phase, so their impact on current market supply is minimal.

3. **Demand Situation**
- Demand in the water treatment sector is relatively stable. With increasing environmental protection requirements, the demand for polyacrylamide by wastewater treatment plants has maintained a certain growth, albeit limited. In industrial wastewater treatment, demand from sectors such as chemicals and papermaking has fluctuated due to industry profitability.
- Demand in the oil extraction sector has improved. As international oil prices have risen, oil extraction activities have increased, leading to a corresponding rise in the demand for polyacrylamide as a flooding agent. However, the overall increase in demand has not yet significantly driven the market.
- Demand in other sectors, such as papermaking and textiles, has remained largely unchanged, with normal procurement rhythms maintained.

4. **Cost Aspects**
- The price of the main raw material, acrylonitrile, has shown an upward trend recently, currently trading around 10,000–11,000 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 500–800 RMB/ton compared to last month. The rise in acrylonitrile prices has increased the production costs of polyacrylamide, providing certain support for its prices.
- Prices of other auxiliary raw materials remain relatively stable, having a minor impact on costs.

5. **Import and Export Situation**
- On the import side, the volume of imports has not changed significantly recently. Foreign product prices remain relatively high, making imports less advantageous, and domestic demand for imported goods is limited.
- On the export side, influenced by weak international market demand and trade friction, export volumes have declined. Some manufacturers have seen a reduction in export orders, shifting more products to the domestic market.

Analysis and Judgment

1. **Reasons for Price Fluctuations**: The rise in acrylonitrile prices is a primary factor driving the narrow upward movement in polyacrylamide prices. Additionally, the decrease in supply from some manufacturers due to lower operating rates has provided support for prices. However, overall demand growth is sluggish, with mixed increases and decreases across different sectors, preventing effective demand-driven price increases.

2. **Market Supply and Demand Relationship**: The current market supply and demand are basically balanced, with supply decreasing slightly and demand growing slowly. Fluctuations in supply are mainly driven by manufacturer-specific factors, while demand is constrained by industry development and the macroeconomic environment.

3. **Cost and Price Transmission**: The transmission of raw material price increases to the polyacrylamide market experiences a certain lag. Due to fierce market competition, manufacturers are cautious in raising prices. Some cost pressures are absorbed internally, resulting in price increases that are smaller than the increase in raw material costs.

Forecast

1. **Price Trends**: In the short term, polyacrylamide prices will continue to exhibit narrow fluctuations. While the high-level operation of acrylonitrile prices provides some upward momentum, the slow growth in demand will suppress further price increases. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of ±300–600 RMB/ton.

2. **Supply Situation**: As equipment maintenance at some manufacturers concludes, the industry’s operating rate is expected to gradually recover, leading to an increase in market supply. However, new capacity will not enter the market in the short term, so the fundamental supply structure will not change significantly.

3. **Demand Situation**: Demand in the water treatment sector will maintain steady growth, and demand in the oil extraction sector is expected to continue improving. However, the overall growth in demand will remain limited. Demand in other sectors will remain unchanged, with minimal impact on the market.

4. **Market Risks**: Attention should be paid to the price trends of acrylonitrile. If its price continues to rise sharply, it will further compress the profit margins of polyacrylamide manufacturers, potentially leading to production cuts or shutdowns by some manufacturers, thereby affecting market supply. Additionally, changes in the international trade environment and adjustments in environmental policies may introduce uncertainty to the market.