Diethanolamine

# Diethanolamine (DEA) Commodity Market Dynamics Intelligence

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## I. Recent Market Developments

1. Price Trends
- Domestic diethanolamine market prices have recently maintained a range-bound oscillation, with mainstream quotes fluctuating within the **5,500–6,800 RMB/ton** range.
- Spot prices in the East China region remain relatively firm, while prices in South China face slight pressure due to the impact of imported supplies.
- Some manufacturers have slightly raised their quotes by 50–100 RMB/ton recently, but actual transaction prices are still primarily determined through negotiation.

2. Supply Side Developments
- **Domestic Plant Operating Rates**: Major production enterprises (such as Yangzi BASF, Nanjing Chemical, and Hongbaoli) maintain operating rates at **65%–75%**, with some units entering maintenance periods.
- **Imported Supplies**: The volume of imported goods arriving from the Middle East and Southeast Asia has increased, providing a certain supplement to the domestic market.
- **Raw Materials**: Ethylene oxide prices have fluctuated narrowly recently, while liquid ammonia prices remain relatively stable; raw material cost support is moderate.

3. Demand Side Developments
- **Natural Gas Desulfurization**: Downstream natural gas purification demand is stable, but seasonal factors have caused a slight slowdown in demand in some regions.
- **Surfactants/Detergents**: Downstream daily chemical industry demand remains at a rigid procurement level, with no significant volume increase observed.
- **Morpholine Production**: As a primary raw material for morpholine, downstream demand is stable but with limited incremental growth.
- **Rust Inhibitors/Corrosion Inhibitors**: Demand in the industrial sector remains steady.

4. Inventory and Logistics
- Port and social inventories are at moderate levels, with a slow pace of inventory depletion.
- Logistics and transportation costs remain basically stable, with no significant fluctuations observed.

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## II. Analysis of Core Influencing Factors

| Factor Category | Specific Content | Direction of Impact |
|-----------------|------------------|---------------------|
| Raw Material Costs | Ethylene oxide prices fluctuate narrowly; liquid ammonia prices are stable | Neutral to Slightly Weak |
| Plant Maintenance | Some domestic units have entered planned maintenance periods | Supports Prices |
| Import Impact | Increased arrivals of supplies from the Middle East and Southeast Asia | Suppresses Prices |
| Downstream Demand | Rigid demand from natural gas desulfurization, daily chemicals, etc., with no significant increment | Neutral |
| Macro Environment | Overall chemical industry sentiment is weak; market confidence is insufficient | Bearish |
| Exchange Rate Fluctuations | RMB exchange rate fluctuations affect import costs | Watch Closely |

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## III. Analytical Assessment

Short-term Outlook (1–4 Weeks)
- The market is expected to maintain a **weak oscillating** pattern, with the core price range projected at **5,500–6,500 RMB/ton**.
- The supply contraction from plant maintenance and the increase in imported supplies form a hedge, leaving prices without a clear directional driver.
- Downstream procurement is primarily for rigid needs, with weak willingness to stockpile, resulting in sluggish market transactions.

Medium-term Outlook (1–3 Months)
- If maintenance units return to operation in a concentrated manner, supply pressure will increase, posing a **downward risk** to prices.
- If downstream natural gas desulfurization projects are launched in a concentrated manner or export orders increase, a phased rebound may occur.
- Significant fluctuations in the price of raw material ethylene oxide will be directly transmitted to the DEA cost side.

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## IV. Forecasts

| Timeframe | Price Forecast | Probability Assessment | Core Logic |
|-----------|----------------|------------------------|------------|
| 1 Month | 5,600–6,400 RMB/ton | 60% | Weak supply-demand balance, narrow range oscillation |
| 2 Months | 5,400–6,200 RMB/ton | 50% | Supply recovery after maintenance ends, price pressure |
| 3 Months | 5,200–6,500 RMB/ton | 45% | Depends on whether incremental stimulus appears on the demand side |

Risk Warnings
- **Upside Risks**: Significant increase in raw material ethylene oxide prices, unexpected shutdowns of major units, export demand exceeding expectations.
- **Downside Risks**: Continued volume increase of imported supplies, downstream demand falling short of expectations, further weakening of the macro economy.

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## V. Operational Recommendations

| Role | Recommendation |
|------|----------------|
| Production Enterprises | Moderately control inventory, focus on price-support opportunities during maintenance windows, and lock in long-term contract orders. |
| Traders | Primarily operate with light positions, focusing on regional price spread arbitrage opportunities (East China - South China). |
| Downstream Users | Procure as needed; may build inventory in batches when prices fall to the lower end of the range. |