Diethanolamine

Recent Market Dynamics

1. Price Trends
- Domestic Market: The price of diethanolamine (DEA) has shown a slight upward fluctuation recently. In the East China region, the mainstream transaction price ranges from 11,500 to 12,000 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 300–500 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In the South China region, prices range from 11,800 to 12,300 RMB/ton, with an increase of 200–400 RMB/ton.
- International Market: DEA prices in Asia have also risen. The FOB Korea price stands at 1,500–1,550 USD/ton, up by 50–80 USD/ton from previous levels. In Europe, prices have increased due to higher energy costs and tight supply, with the CIF Rotterdam price ranging from 1,800 to 1,850 EUR/ton, reflecting an increase of approximately 80–100 EUR/ton.

2. Supply Situation
- Domestic Capacity: Some domestic DEA producers have scheduled maintenance recently. For instance, a plant in East China plans to shut down for equipment maintenance for 10–15 days next week, which is expected to reduce market supply by approximately 1,000–1,500 tons.
- Imports: The volume of imported shipments arriving domestically has decreased, primarily due to rising international shipping costs and adjustments in export policies in certain countries. The monthly import volume is projected to decline by 15%–20% compared to the previous month.

3. Demand Situation
- Downstream Industries: In the surfactant sector, with the increasing demand for winter cleaning products, DEA, as a key raw material, has seen rising demand. Some surfactant manufacturers have increased their procurement volumes, up by 10%–15% compared to the previous month. In the pesticide intermediate sector, with the approaching spring farming season, demand for DEA in pesticide production is gradually increasing. Demand is expected to grow by 12%–18% over the next two months.
- Regional Demand: East China and South China, as the primary consumption regions for DEA, have shown significant demand growth. East China, with its concentrated chemical industry, has broad applications for DEA across multiple downstream sectors, accounting for approximately 40% of total domestic demand. South China, being close to ports and active in import-export trade, has substantial demand for imported DEA, accounting for about 30% of total demand.

Analysis and Judgment

1. Reasons for Price Fluctuations
- Supply Side: Maintenance by domestic enterprises and reduced imports have led to tighter market supply, which is a primary driver of the price increase. The reduction in supply has tightened the supply-demand balance, revealing seller-market characteristics and pushing prices upward.
- Demand Side: Increased demand from downstream industries, particularly in the surfactant and pesticide intermediate sectors, has provided strong support for price increases. This heightened demand has enhanced the market's absorption capacity, further exacerbating supply tightness.

2. Market Supply-Demand Dynamics
- The current market situation is characterized by supply falling short of demand. On the supply side, domestic maintenance and reduced imports have decreased availability; on the demand side, growth in downstream industries has driven demand up. This imbalance is expected to persist in the short term.

Forecast

1. Price Trend Forecast
- Short Term (1–2 Weeks): DEA prices are expected to continue rising, although the rate of increase may slow down. The impact of domestic plant maintenance on supply remains ongoing, and downstream demand growth will sustain for some time, making it difficult to quickly alleviate supply tightness. Prices in East China may rise to 12,000–12,500 RMB/ton, while South China prices may reach 12,300–12,800 RMB/ton. Internationally, the FOB Korea price may increase to 1,550–1,600 USD/ton, and the CIF Rotterdam price may rise to 1,850–1,900 EUR/ton.
- Medium Term (1–2 Months): As domestic maintenance periods conclude, supply will gradually recover, and import volumes may also increase, alleviating supply tightness to some extent. However, downstream demand will continue to grow due to factors such as spring farming. Prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels with limited upside potential. Domestic prices may oscillate between 12,000 and 12,800 RMB/ton, while international prices will adjust within corresponding ranges based on regional supply and demand conditions.

2. Market Supply-Demand Forecast
- Supply Side: After domestic maintenance ends, production will gradually return to normal, with monthly output expected to increase by 1,000–1,500 tons. Regarding imports, as shipping costs stabilize and export policies adjust, import volumes are expected to gradually recover starting next month, with a projected monthly increase of 15%–20%.
- Demand Side: Demand in the surfactant sector may decline after the peak winter cleaning season, but demand in the pesticide intermediate sector will continue to grow during the spring farming period. Overall, demand is expected to remain on an upward trajectory over the next 1–2 months, although the growth rate may slow compared to earlier periods.