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China, the United States, and Germany are the leading exporters of diethylene glycol, collectively accounting for over 50% of global exports in recent years; major importers include India, South Korea, and Mexico, with India consistently ranking as the top destination. Imports by India and South Korea have grown steadily since 2022, while Diethylene glycol prices have remained relatively stable amid moderate demand expansion in polyester resin and plasticizer production.
Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. **Price Trends**
- The domestic market price of diethylene glycol (DEG) has shown a narrow fluctuation pattern. The mainstream market price in the East China region fluctuates between 5,800 and 6,000 RMB/ton, the price in the South China region is between 5,900 and 6,100 RMB/ton, and the price in the North China region is between 5,750 and 5,950 RMB/ton.
- Compared to the same period last week, the price in the East China region increased slightly by approximately 50 RMB/ton, the price in the South China region remained basically flat, and the price in the North China region decreased slightly by 30 RMB/ton.
2. **Supply Situation**
- The overall operating rate of domestic DEG production units remains stable, maintaining a range of 75% - 80%. Some manufacturers are undergoing scheduled maintenance, but the scale of maintenance is small, having limited impact on overall supply.
- Regarding imports, the volume of arriving shipments has increased recently, leading to a rise in port inventory. As of now, the port inventory in the East China region is approximately 35,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons compared to last week.
3. **Demand Situation**
- The operating rate of the downstream unsaturated polyester resin industry remains at 60% - 65%, with steady demand for DEG. Some resin enterprises are purchasing on an as-needed basis to maintain normal production inventory.
- The antifreeze industry has entered its traditional off-season, leading to a decrease in demand for DEG. However, some enterprises continue to maintain a certain level of procurement in anticipation of potential future demand.
- Other downstream industries, such as coatings and inks, show little change in demand, with overall purchasing rhythms remaining stable.
4. **Cost Aspect**
- The price of the main raw material, ethylene glycol (EG), has fluctuated minimally recently, providing relatively stable cost support. Crude oil prices have oscillated within a certain range, having limited impact on EG costs, and consequently, no significant push or suppression effect on DEG costs.
Analysis and Judgment
1. **Supply Side**: Domestic operating rates are stable, and increased import arrivals have led to rising port inventories. The overall market supply is ample, which exerts some downward pressure on prices.
2. **Demand Side**: Downstream demand performance is divergent. Un saturated resin demand is steady, antifreeze demand has decreased, and other sectors remain stable. Overall, there is insufficient momentum for demand growth to provide strong support for prices.
3. **Cost Side**: The price of raw material EG is stable, and crude oil prices are oscillating. There are no significant changes on the cost side, resulting in minimal impact on DEG prices. In summary, the current market supply-demand pattern is relatively loose, and prices lack upward momentum.
Forecast
1. **Short-term (1 - 2 weeks)**: The market price of DEG is expected to continue its narrow fluctuation pattern, with a price range of 5,700 - 6,100 RMB/ton. The situation of ample supply and slow demand growth is unlikely to change, and market trading atmosphere may remain bland.
2. **Medium-term (1 - 2 months)**: If the operating rate of the downstream unsaturated resin industry improves, or if the antifreeze industry enters the stocking period ahead of schedule, increased demand may drive a modest price rise, albeit with limited gains, expected in the range of 6,000 - 6,300 RMB/ton. Conversely, if demand remains sluggish, prices may further decline to 5,600 - 5,900 RMB/ton.
3. **Long-term (3 - 6 months)**: Attention should be paid to macroeconomic conditions and industry policy changes. If the macroeconomic outlook improves and overall chemical industry demand increases, DEG prices may see an upward trend, potentially breaking through 6,300 RMB/ton. If the macroeconomic environment is sluggish, prices may remain at relatively low levels.
Diethylene glycol is a colorless, odorless, viscous liquid with low volatility and a boiling point of approximately 245 °C. It is a bifunctional aliphatic alcohol (a diol) and belongs to the class of glycol ethers, commonly used as a chemical intermediate and solvent. Its primary industrial applications include serving as a precursor in the synthesis of plasticizers (e.g., for cellulose esters), unsaturated polyester resins, and morpholine derivatives. It is widely employed in coatings, inks, adhesives, and as a humectant and solvent in hydraulic brake fluids and natural gas dehydration systems.
Humectant for tobacco, casein, synthetic sponges, paper products, in cork compositions, book-binding adhesives.
This chemical is included in Basic Chemicals. See more about what is Diethylene glycol and Diethylene glycol SDS information.
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