Glycerol

Glycerin Market Dynamics Report (Recent Commodity Market Intelligence)

Price Trends
- Recent Quotation Volatility: On July 12, the factory price for glycerin stood at RMB 5,400/ton; on July 7, it was RMB 3,500/ton; on July 5, it surged to RMB 7,500/ton; on June 30, it dropped to RMB 3,000/ton; and on June 28, it was RMB 5,800/ton—indicating extreme price volatility.
- Regional and Brand-Specific Quotations:
- As of July 7, 2026: Qingdao Chengxin Hongfeng Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted domestic glycerin at RMB 9,000/ton; Hubei Qibajiu Chemical Co., Ltd. at RMB 3,500/ton; Shandong Langcheng Chemical Co., Ltd. at RMB 6,600/ton; and Shandong Qiangsen Chemical Co., Ltd. at RMB 7,800/ton.
- From July 13–14, 2026: Nanjing Runsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. quoted saponification-grade glycerin at RMB 9,000/ton; Shandong Hongyang Chemical Co., Ltd. at RMB 8,300/ton; Changzhou Tianheng Industrial & Trading Co., Ltd. at RMB 10,500/ton; and Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical Co., Ltd. at RMB 11,000/ton.
- Prices by Purity Level:
- As of July 9: Market price for 95% purity glycerin stood at RMB 8,150/ton; for 99.5% purity glycerin, at RMB 8,550/ton. In the East China region, industrial-grade glycerin (95% purity) had a reference price range of RMB 7,800–8,200/ton; for 99.5% purity, RMB 8,300–8,600/ton. In South China, 99.5% purity glycerin traded within a reference range of RMB 8,600–8,800/ton.

Supply and Demand Situation
- Supply Side:
- Bio-diesel blending policy upgrades in South America and Southeast Asia have increased the supply of crude glycerin—a by-product—thus potentially boosting refined glycerin output. Additionally, newly commissioned glycerin-based epichlorohydrin production capacity (installed from last year through this year) is accompanied by integrated glycerin refining facilities, further increasing refined glycerin supply. Overall, market supply is expected to be relatively ample in the second half of the year.
- Around July 15, crude glycerin pricing showed: Southeast Asian 80% crude glycerin offered at USD 720–740/ton CIF China; domestic spot prices hovered around RMB 6,000/ton, with final terms negotiated case-by-case.
- Demand Side:
- A glycerin-based epichlorohydrin plant in Qingdao commenced operation in the second half of 2025, followed by another similar facility in Inner Mongolia scheduled for commissioning in 2026—both directly elevating upstream glycerin demand. However, current demand remains weak due to seasonal lull. Nevertheless, prolonged high pricing earlier this year, coupled with rapid subsequent price declines, has resulted in inverted margins across the value chain.

Cost Factors
- Fluctuations in raw material prices—particularly palm oil—impact glycerin production costs. Earlier palm oil price movements drove corresponding changes in crude glycerin prices, thereby affecting overall glycerin cost structures. For instance, in early 2024, rising global edible oil prices pushed palm oil higher, lifting Southeast Asian 80% crude glycerin prices to RMB 2,550–2,600/ton; during March’s Ramadan pre-holiday stocking period, palm oil demand further lifted crude glycerin prices to RMB 2,900–3,000/ton. Currently, crude glycerin prices continue a gradual upward trend, providing ongoing cost support to the glycerin market.

Analysis & Assessment
- Causes of Recent Price Volatility: The sharp glycerin price fluctuations stem primarily from dynamic shifts in supply-demand balance, cost variations, and geopolitical developments. In Q1, heightened geopolitical tensions triggered broad commodity price increases; concurrent epichlorohydrin price hikes bolstered market sentiment toward glycerin, while rising overseas prices increased import costs—propelling domestic prices upward. In Q2, weakening cost support combined with sluggish demand exerted dual downward pressure, resulting in a declining price trend. Recent volatility reflects short-term supply-demand imbalances and persistent cost-driven support.
- Current Market Status: The glycerin market is currently experiencing weak demand and weak supply conditions (“dual weakness”). While physical supply remains relatively smooth, most producers—still operating at a loss—maintain firm pricing intentions. Although downstream demand remains seasonally subdued, value-chain inversion and underlying cost support are sustaining relatively resilient market sentiment.

Outlook
- Short Term (1–2 weeks): With solid cost support and widespread producer intent to maintain or raise prices, glycerin prices are likely to remain stable at elevated levels in the near term. However, given the prevailing “dual weakness” and continued availability of physical supply, downside risks persist. Price forecasts: 95% purity glycerin may trade within RMB 7,900–8,200/ton; 99.5% purity glycerin within RMB 8,200–8,500/ton.
- Medium Term (1–3 months): Historically, downstream industry demand for glycerin rises steadily from July through October, suggesting upward pressure on monthly average prices. Yet, increasing new capacity and expanded supply will likely cap upside potential. East China’s 99.5% purity glycerin monthly transaction average price is projected to fluctuate between RMB 7,200–8,800/ton.
- Long Term (3–6 months): Increased glycerin supply is anticipated in H2, with prices expected to follow seasonal demand patterns—rising initially then declining—resulting in an overall average price lower than that observed in H1.