Citric acid

Lemon Acid: Recent Commodity Market Intelligence Report

I. Price Dynamics
- Base Price: According to Shengyisi data, the benchmark price of anhydrous citric acid on April 27, 2026, stood at RMB 5,483.33 per metric ton, representing a 2.25% increase from the beginning of the month.
- Regional Quotations: Significant price variations exist across regions, brands, and specifications. For instance, food-grade citric acid is quoted at RMB 6,800 per metric ton in Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province; RMB 6,500 per metric ton in Wuhan City, Hubei Province; whereas certain industrial-grade citric acid products in Zhengzhou City, Henan Province, are priced as low as RMB 3,600 per metric ton.

II. Supply-Demand Situation
- Supply Side: China is the world’s largest producer of citric acid, with output reaching 2.18 million metric tons in 2025 — an 8.46% year-on-year increase. This production expansion is primarily supported by China’s stable and low-cost corn feedstock supply and globally competitive fermentation technologies.
- Demand Side:
- Domestic Demand: Domestic demand totaled 474,000 metric tons in 2025, up 2.16% year-on-year, driven mainly by growth in the food, pharmaceutical, and daily chemical industries.
- Export Demand: Exports reached 1.263 million metric tons in 2025, up 1.38% year-on-year; however, export value declined by 2.07% year-on-year. In January–February 2026, exports amounted to 216,700 metric tons, rising 2.51% year-on-year, while export value decreased marginally by 0.02% year-on-year. The decline in export value is primarily attributable to intensified global market competition.

III. Market Structure
- Competitive Landscape: The industry exhibits high concentration, with leading enterprises — including Shandong Yingxuan Industrial Co., Ltd., Laiwu Taihe Biochemical Co., Ltd., and Jiangsu Guoxin Xielian Energy Co., Ltd. — dominating the market. These firms leverage economies of scale to reduce costs and strengthen competitiveness.
- Export Markets: Key export destinations include India, Russia, and Mexico. India remains China’s largest overseas market for citric acid, accounting for 23,500 metric tons of exports in January–February 2026.

IV. Policy and Trade Environment
- Trade Barriers: On April 15, 2026, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued its final determination in the third sunset review of anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) orders on Chinese citric acid and citrate salts. The review upheld AD duties of up to 156.87% and CVD rates ranging from 52.22% to 166.34%, resulting in combined effective duties exceeding 300%, severely impeding Chinese citric acid access to the U.S. market.
- Policy Support: The Chinese government places high priority on the healthy development of the citric acid industry and has introduced a series of supportive policies — including listing citric acid production in the \"Catalogue for Guiding Industrial Restructuring\" as an encouraged activity, and issuing the \"Guiding Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of the Citric Acid Industry\" — to advance technological upgrading and green development.

Analysis and Assessment

I. Price Trend
- Short-Term Outlook: Citric acid prices may continue to fluctuate weakly near cost levels, influenced by raw material costs, supply-demand dynamics, and trade environment constraints.
- Long-Term Outlook: While technological progress and capacity optimization could gradually lower production costs, intense market competition and persistent trade barriers may constrain significant price increases.

II. Supply-Demand Relationship
- Supply: Domestic output is expected to keep expanding, yet export market restrictions may intensify domestic supply pressure.
- Demand: Domestic demand is projected to grow steadily; however, export demand may remain subdued due to ongoing trade barriers.

III. Market Structure
- Competition: Leading enterprises are consolidating their market positions through scale advantages and technological superiority, placing mounting competitive pressure on small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
- Exports: With the U.S. market effectively closed, enterprises must accelerate efforts to develop new markets — such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East — to reduce overreliance on any single market.

Forecast

I. Price Forecast
- Citric acid prices are expected to continue oscillating near cost levels in the near term. However, as new markets are developed and production capacity optimized, prices are likely to gradually stabilize and recover.

II. Supply-Demand Forecast
- Supply: Domestic output will maintain growth, though the growth rate may moderate.
- Demand: Domestic demand is forecast to rise steadily, while export demand is expected to gradually rebound as diversification into new markets gains traction.

III. Market Trends
- Technological Innovation: Enterprises will intensify R&D investment to drive innovation in strain selection, process optimization, and separation/purification technologies — thereby enhancing production efficiency and product quality.
- Green Development: Amid increasingly stringent environmental regulations, enterprises will expedite green manufacturing transformation — reducing energy consumption and emissions to achieve sustainable development.
- Market Diversification: Companies will proactively explore emerging markets to mitigate overdependence on any single region, thus strengthening resilience against external shocks.