Tetrachloroethylene

Recent Market Dynamics of Tetrachloroethylene

I. Price Trends
1. Domestic Market:
- East China Region: The market price of tetrachloroethylene has shown a slight upward fluctuation recently, with mainstream transaction prices ranging from 5,800 to 6,000 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 200 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the month.
- South China Region: Prices closely follow those in East China, with mainstream transaction prices ranging from 5,900 to 6,100 RMB/ton, while some high-end quotes reach 6,200 RMB/ton.
- North China Region: Prices remain relatively stable, with mainstream transaction prices ranging from 5,700 to 5,900 RMB/ton, although there are signs of a slight upward trend recently.

2. International Market:
- Asian Market: Influenced by increased demand from China, tetrachloroethylene prices in Asia have risen. The FOB Korea price is between 780 and 800 USD/ton, up by approximately 20 USD/ton from previous levels.
- European and American Markets: Prices remain relatively stable, but due to global supply chain tensions, some regions are experiencing supply shortages, creating potential upward pressure on prices.

II. Supply and Demand
1. Supply Side:
- Domestic Production: The operating rate of domestic tetrachloroethylene producers remains stable recently. However, some enterprises have seen slight declines in output due to environmental inspections or equipment maintenance.
- Import Situation: Import volumes have increased, primarily from Asian countries such as South Korea and Japan, to bridge domestic supply gaps.

2. Demand Side:
- Downstream Industries: Tetrachloroethylene is mainly used in the production of refrigerants, dry cleaning agents, and metal degreasers. With the arrival of the peak season for refrigerant demand in summer, the demand for tetrachloroethylene has increased.
- Export Market: Some domestic enterprises are actively expanding international markets, leading to growth in export volumes, which has further driven domestic demand.

III. Costs and Profits
1. Raw Material Costs: The primary raw materials for tetrachloroethylene are chlorine gas and ethylene. Recently, chlorine gas prices have remained stable, while ethylene prices have risen slightly, providing support to tetrachloroethylene costs.
2. Production Costs: Influenced by rising raw material costs and increased environmental protection investments, the production costs of tetrachloroethylene have increased.
3. Profit Levels: Despite rising costs, the profit levels of tetrachloroethylene producers have remained stable or slightly improved due to price increases and growing demand.

IV. Relevant Policies and Impacts
1. Environmental Policies: Recently, the state has strengthened environmental supervision of the chemical industry. Some enterprises failing to meet environmental standards have been ordered to suspend operations for rectification, leading to reduced market supply.
2. Trade Policies: The international trade situation is complex and volatile. However, the current impact on tetrachloroethylene imports and exports is limited. Future policy changes require close attention.

V. Analysis, Judgment, and Forecast
1. Short-Term Analysis:
- Price Trend: Influenced by tight supply and demand dynamics and cost support, the price of tetrachloroethylene is expected to continue a slight upward trend in the short term.
- Supply and Demand: On the supply side, output may decrease slightly due to environmental inspections and equipment maintenance. On the demand side, driven by the peak season for refrigerant demand in summer, demand will continue to increase.

2. Medium- to Long-Term Forecast:
- Price Trend: As the peak season for refrigerant demand ends, the demand for tetrachloroethylene may decline. However, limited downward price movement is expected due to cost support and tight supply. Prices are likely to remain at a high level with fluctuations.
- Supply and Demand: In the long term, with continuous advancements in domestic tetrachloroethylene production technology and gradual capacity release, the tight supply situation is expected to ease. On the demand side, driven by downstream industry development and expansion of export markets, demand is expected to grow steadily.
- Risk Warning: Risks such as changes in the international trade situation, adjustments in environmental policies, and fluctuations in raw material prices need to be monitored for their potential impact on the tetrachloroethylene market.