Tetrachloroethylene

I. Price Dynamics (April 1–8, 2026)
1. Benchmark Price Trend
- According to Echemi Network data, the benchmark price of tetrachloroethylene was RMB 4,550/ton on April 1, declined to RMB 4,537.50/ton on April 6, and remained unupdated as of April 8; however, regional quotations indicate ongoing price volatility.
- Significant regional price differentials exist: Shanghai’s quotation reached as high as RMB 7,000/ton (99.9% purity), whereas Inner Mongolia’s was as low as RMB 2,700/ton (99.9% purity); prices in major producing provinces—Shandong and Jiangsu—were concentrated between RMB 4,000–4,600/ton.

2. Short-Term Volatility Characteristics
- From April 1 to 6, prices exhibited a 'decline-then-stabilize' pattern: the benchmark price dropped to RMB 4,487.50/ton on April 2, rebounded slightly to RMB 4,537.50/ton, and remained stable through April 6.
- Manufacturer quotations were highly divergent: Shandong Jinshengrun Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted the same product (99.9% purity) at prices ranging from RMB 4,000 to RMB 4,600/ton, reflecting differences in brand reputation, delivery location, and logistics costs.

II. Market Driver Analysis
1. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side: Domestic capacity continues to expand; total national capacity reached 511,000 tons/year by end-2024, with a CR6 concentration ratio of 61.45%. Leading enterprises—including Juhua Technology and Binhu Shares—dominate the market, ensuring ample supply.
- Demand Side:
- Organic Synthesis (75% share): Demand is expected to decline due to policy-driven reductions in HFC-125 refrigerant output, placing long-term pressure on tetrachloroethylene demand as a raw material.
- Cleaning, Degreasing & Dry-Cleaning Applications (15% share): Demand remains stable, yet environmental substitution trends in the dry-cleaning industry (e.g., CO?- and silicone-based dry-cleaning agents) may erode tetrachloroethylene’s market share.
- Export Market: In 2024, exports totaled 23,100 tons, down 9% year-on-year, primarily destined for the UAE and Russia; volatile international demand intensifies domestic competition.

2. Cost and Policy Impacts
- Environmental Compliance Costs: Tetrachloroethylene production is strictly regulated under the Montreal Protocol and domestic environmental policies; enterprises must invest in environmental infrastructure (e.g., zero-emission technologies), raising operating costs.
- Raw Material Prices: Primary feedstocks are chlorine and ethylene. Chlorine prices have been relatively stable recently, while ethylene prices remain subject to international oil price fluctuations—potentially transmitting cost pressures downstream to tetrachloroethylene.

3. Regional and Logistics Factors
- Inner Mongolia’s low price (RMB 2,700/ton) reflects advantages from localized raw material sourcing and lower logistics costs, whereas Shanghai’s high price (RMB 7,000/ton) stems from import dependency, brand premium, and concentrated downstream demand.

III. Future Outlook (Q2–Q4 2026)
1. Price Trend Forecast
- Short Term (1–3 months): Prices are expected to oscillate within RMB 4,000–4,600/ton, with minor fluctuations in major producing regions driven by supply-demand dynamics; regional price differentials will persist.
- Medium Term (6–12 months): Should HFC-125 output restrictions continue to take effect, demand erosion in organic synthesis may exert further downward pressure on prices; however, elevated environmental compliance costs will likely cap the extent of any decline.

2. Supply-Demand Structural Adjustment
- Supply Side: Under-construction capacity (64,000 tons/year) is gradually coming online, and an additional 15,000 tons/year of planned capacity is pending approval; oversupply risks are rising, with the market projected to shift into a surplus state post-2029.
- Demand Side: Demand in cleaning, degreasing, and dry-cleaning applications remains stable—but accounts for only 15% of total demand, insufficient to offset declining demand from organic synthesis; export markets warrant close monitoring for emerging demand potential in economies such as Southeast Asia and Africa.

3. Industry Risks and Opportunities
- Risks: Increasingly stringent environmental regulations; volatile international demand; technological substitution in the dry-cleaning sector.
- Opportunities: Enterprises can reduce costs via technological innovation (e.g., low-toxicity byproduct processes) and vertical integration (e.g., self-supply of key raw materials), while exploring high-value-added application niches (e.g., electronic-grade tetrachloroethylene).