Tetrachloroethylene

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence

1. **Price Trends**
- The domestic market price of tetrachloroethylene (PCE) has recently shown a narrow range of fluctuations. The mainstream transaction price in the East China region is in the range of 5,200 - 5,400 RMB/ton, with a slight fluctuation of 50 - 100 RMB/ton compared to the previous week. Prices in the North China region are in the range of 5,100 - 5,300 RMB/ton, with a similar fluctuation range to that in East China.
- In the international market, PCE prices in the United States remain relatively stable, with FOB prices maintained at 850 - 900 USD/ton. Prices in Europe have risen slightly, with CIF prices increasing from the previous 900 - 950 USD/ton to 920 - 970 USD/ton.

2. **Supply Situation**
- Some domestic production facilities are operating stably, with utilization rates maintained at around 75% - 80%. Among them, a major enterprise in Shandong is operating at full capacity, with products meeting domestic demand and also being exported. Some enterprises in Jiangsu have reduced their utilization rates due to equipment maintenance, but the impact on overall market supply is limited.
- Regarding imports, recent PCE import volumes have decreased. Due to rising international shipping costs and price increases by some foreign suppliers, domestic traders' enthusiasm for imports has been dampened. It is estimated that this month's import volume will decrease by 10% - 15% compared to last month.

3. **Demand Situation**
- Demand for PCE from the downstream dry-cleaning industry is relatively stable. With the arrival of winter, dry-cleaning business volume has increased, leading to a corresponding rise in PCE procurement, but the increase is modest, estimated at 5% - 8%.
- The refrigerant industry is another major consumption sector for PCE. Currently, the refrigerant market is in its traditional off-season, and enterprises are procuring PCE on an as-needed basis, with no significant demand growth. However, some enterprises have engaged in a certain degree of stockpiling to prepare for potential production peaks in the future.

4. **Inventory Situation**
- Domestic social inventory of PCE is overall at a moderate level. Production enterprises face little inventory pressure, maintaining inventory levels of 10 - 15 days. Trader inventories are relatively high; some traders are actively stocking up to capture market share, with inventory levels ranging from 20 - 30 days.

Analysis and Judgment

1. **Reasons for Price Fluctuations**
- The narrow fluctuations in domestic prices are mainly influenced by supply and demand dynamics. The supply side is overall stable, with limited impact from some enterprise maintenance. On the demand side, demand from the dry-cleaning industry has increased slightly, while demand from the refrigerant industry remains flat. The basic balance between supply and demand has led to a small price fluctuation range.
- The rise in international prices is mainly driven by increased demand in Europe and production cuts by some suppliers, leading to tight supply and pushing prices up. Stable prices in the United States indicate that the local market's supply and demand situation remains relatively stable.

2. **Impact of Supply and Demand Dynamics**
- In terms of supply, domestic production utilization rates are high, and although import volumes have decreased, overall supply can still meet market demand. However, if import volumes continue to decrease, it may put some pressure on market supply.
- In terms of demand, demand from the dry-cleaning industry is expected to maintain stable growth as winter continues. However, demand from the refrigerant industry is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term, resulting in insufficient overall demand growth momentum.

Forecast

1. **Price Trend Forecast**
- In the short term, domestic PCE market prices will continue to show a narrow range of fluctuations. Due to the basic balance between supply and demand and the lack of significant bullish or bearish factors, the price fluctuation range is expected to be 5,100 - 5,500 RMB/ton.
- In the medium term, if international market prices continue to rise, it may lead to increased domestic import costs, thereby pushing up domestic prices. However, considering the limited growth in domestic demand, the price increase will not be excessive, expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 5,800 RMB/ton.

2. **Supply and Demand Forecast**
- In terms of supply, domestic production utilization rates are expected to remain stable, while import volumes may fluctuate based on changes in international market prices and shipping costs. If international prices remain at high levels, import volumes may further decrease.
- In terms of demand, demand from the dry-cleaning industry will continue to show stable growth. Demand from the refrigerant industry is expected to enter a peak season next spring, at which time PCE demand will increase. Overall demand is expected to show a trend of slow growth.