1-Butanol

Market Intelligence Analysis of n-Butanol in Recent Commodity Markets

I. Market Price Dynamics
- Recent Price Trend: In late June 2026, the market price of n-butanol exhibited a downward trend. On June 26, Shandong Lihuayi Chemical’s n-butanol quotation stood at RMB 6,300 per ton, down RMB 100 per ton from the previous trading day; Luxi Chemical’s quotation was RMB 6,400 per ton, also down RMB 100 per ton; and Wanhua Chemical’s executed price in North China was RMB 6,500 per ton, down RMB 300 per ton.
- Price Fluctuation Range: Over the past three months, the highest n-butanol price reached RMB 8,933.33 per ton, while the lowest fell to RMB 6,400 per ton; the three-month average price was RMB 7,624.73 per ton.

II. Supply-Demand Analysis
- Supply Side:
- China’s n-butanol capacity is projected to undergo structural expansion in 2026, with new capacity coming online from enterprises including Fujian Zhongjing Petrochemical, Taizhou Xinpuchem, and Guangxi Huayi.
- Stricter environmental regulations may trigger temporary production curtailments at some small- and medium-sized facilities, causing short-term localized supply constraints.
- Overall capacity utilization in 2026 is expected to hover around 86%, indicating moderate and controllable supply growth.
- Demand Side:
- Traditional end-use sectors—including waterborne coatings and plasticizers—continue to provide stable demand support.
- Emerging applications are experiencing explosive growth: demand for battery materials in electric vehicles (EVs), biodegradable plastics, and electronic-grade n-butanol for semiconductor manufacturing is rising significantly, becoming core drivers of demand growth.
- Overall demand growth in 2026 is anticipated to outpace supply growth, shifting the industry from “supply-demand equilibrium” to “structural tight equilibrium”; localized supply shortages may emerge during the peak demand seasons of Q2 and Q3.

III. Market Drivers
- Policy Factors:
- The “Special Action Plan for High-Quality Development of Key Chemical Products (2025–2027)” designates n-butanol as a critical basic organic chemical intermediate and sets a target of no less than 92.6% domestic self-sufficiency rate by 2025, reinforcing supply-chain resilience requirements.
- Newly approved projects must comply with Tier-1 energy efficiency standards, capping comprehensive energy consumption at 432 kg standard coal per ton of product—thus accelerating technological upgrades across the industry.
- VOCs emission limits have been tightened to 55 mg/m3, promoting widespread adoption of combined catalytic oxidation + adsorption recovery processes.
- Technological Factors:
- Localization of high-selectivity catalysts—e.g., the Ni-Mo-P/Al?O? hydrogenation catalyst developed by Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences—has reduced production costs.
- Integration of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) with green electricity (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng’s Yulin CCUS demonstration project) enhances green competitiveness.
- Downstream value chain extension into high-value-added fields—such as butanol-based biodiesel additives—broadens profit margins.

IV. Market Outlook
- Price Forecast:
- n-Butanol prices in 2026 are expected to follow a pattern of “bottoming out in Q1, rising from Q2, and sustaining at elevated levels in H2”, with the annual price center projected to rise 5–8% year-on-year versus 2025; the core price range is forecast at RMB 5,400–6,200 per ton.
- Tight supply-demand balance in H2—coupled with green-process premiums and growing export demand—may push prices above RMB 6,500 per ton.
- Supply-Demand Forecast:
- China’s n-butanol output in 2026 is expected to exceed 3.3 million tons; export volume is projected to increase further, primarily targeting Southeast Asian and Central & Eastern European markets—including Vietnam, India, and Turkey.
- Industry concentration will further intensify: the top five producers—Wanhua Chemical, Sinopec Group, Hengli Petrochemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Yankuang Lunan Chemical—will account for over 57% of total capacity, strengthening their competitive advantages through integrated operations, technological upgrades, and diversified feedstock sourcing.

V. Risks and Opportunities
- Risk Factors:
- Propylene supply disruptions or extreme weather events affecting logistics could exacerbate price volatility.
- Higher project approval thresholds now require applicants to demonstrate reliable feedstock supply, independent technological capability, and green certification—only such qualified enterprises can access preferential credit support from financial institutions.
- Opportunity Areas:
- Deepening import substitution in high-end solvents, particularly strong growth in demand for electronic-grade n-butanol.
- Expanding automotive coatings for new-energy vehicles, driving a 5.3% year-on-year increase in demand for butyl acrylate.
- Accelerated replacement of conventional plasticizers with eco-friendly alternatives, elevating demand for n-butanol-derived intermediates.