1-Butanol

Market Intelligence Report on n-Butanol in the Commodity Market (Recent Update)

I. Price Trends
- Current Price: As of April 28, 2026, the national average ex-factory price for industrial-grade n-butanol stood at RMB 7,627 per metric ton, down 1.05% from the previous trading day.
- Price Volatility: Throughout April, n-butanol prices continued to decline—from RMB 8,566.67/ton on April 1 to RMB 7,627/ton on April 28—a cumulative drop of 11.08%.
- Regional Disparities: Price variations exist across regions. For instance, prices in Shandong Province remain relatively low; some producers have loosened their quotation policies, and low-price transactions have improved moderately.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side:
- Quotations from several n-butanol producers continue to soften, reflecting heightened willingness to offload inventory.
- Plant operating rates are affected by tightening environmental regulations and rising carbon compliance costs. Certain small- and medium-scale capacities may face temporary production curtailments; however, overall supply growth remains moderate and controllable.
- Demand Side:
- Downstream buyers are adopting a “buy-on-dip” strategy, leading to modest improvement in low-price transactions; however, high-price deals remain sluggish.
- Downstream sectors—including coatings and plasticizers—are currently in their seasonal lull, resulting in subdued purchasing enthusiasm and cautious new-order negotiations.

III. Market Developments
- Corporate Updates:
- Pricing adjustments by industry leaders—such as Wanhua Chemical and Luxi Chemical—are closely watched and exert notable influence on market pricing.
- Several producers—including Anqing Sunrise and Jiangsu Huachang—have lowered their n-butanol quotations, reflecting evolving supply-demand dynamics.
- Industry Policy:
- Following implementation of the \"Implementation Plan for Carbon Peak in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry,\" carbon-related operational costs for coal-based production routes have increased, raising the cost burden for traditional coal-feedstock facilities and accelerating the sector’s transition toward low-carbon technologies.
- Green-process production lines benefit from policy incentives and maintain stable output, thereby reshaping the supply-demand structure.

IV. Import-Export Situation
- Export Market:
- India has issued a positive final determination in its second sunset review of anti-dumping duties on n-butanol originating in or exported from Malaysia, South Africa, and the United States, recommending continuation of anti-dumping duties for another five years. This policy may impact exports from those countries and indirectly affect China’s n-butanol export competitiveness.
- Although China’s n-butanol export volume remains relatively small, it has shown steady growth in recent years. Robust demand in Southeast Asia and Central/Eastern Europe presents promising opportunities for further export expansion.

Analysis & Assessment

I. Price Trend Analysis
- The recent downward price trend is primarily driven by shifting supply-demand fundamentals: softening producer quotations and stronger inventory-offloading intent on the supply side, coupled with muted downstream purchasing interest and cautious order placement on the demand side.
- Fluctuations in propylene—a key raw material—also significantly influence n-butanol pricing. Propylene price volatility directly affects n-butanol’s cost base and, consequently, its market price.

II. Supply-Demand Analysis
- On the supply side, although some small- and medium-scale capacities may face temporary curtailment or restructuring pressure due to stricter environmental enforcement and carbon cost burdens, overall supply growth remains moderate and manageable. Industry leaders sustain stable output leveraging scale advantages and low-carbon technologies, thereby providing underlying price support.
- On the demand side, while traditional downstream sectors remain in seasonal slowdown, emerging applications—including coatings for new-energy vehicles and waterborne resins—are generating strong demand for high-purity n-butanol, suggesting robust future growth potential.

III. Market Trend Analysis
- Green transformation has become the core strategic imperative. With intensifying environmental regulation and mounting carbon-cost pressures, enterprises are increasingly investing in low-carbon technology R&D and innovation to advance sustainable development.
- Industrial concentration is expected to rise further. Leading enterprises will consolidate their market positions through economies of scale, low-carbon capabilities, and advanced R&D in premium products—accelerating industry consolidation beyond historical precedent.

Forecast

I. Price Trend Forecast
- In the near term, n-butanol prices are expected to remain weak, fluctuating around current levels amid ongoing supply-demand rebalancing and propylene price volatility.
- In the second half of the year, prices may rebound, supported by growing demand from emerging applications and expanding export markets. Under a supply-demand tight-balance scenario, prices could stabilize at relatively elevated levels.

II. Supply-Demand Forecast
- On the supply side, additional capacity ramp-ups and higher plant utilization rates are likely to drive continued output growth. However, stringent environmental regulations and carbon-cost pressures may force the phase-out or green transition of certain small- and medium-scale capacities.
- On the demand side, overall demand is projected to grow steadily, propelled by recovery in traditional downstream sectors and surging demand in high-value niches—particularly for high-purity, low-aldehyde-residue n-butanol.

III. Market Trend Forecast
- Green transformation and low-carbon technologies will serve as the primary drivers of industry evolution. Enterprises must intensify R&D investment and innovation in low-carbon solutions to align with sustainability imperatives.
- Industrial concentration will further increase. Leading enterprises will strengthen their dominance via scale advantages, low-carbon technological capabilities, and leadership in high-end product development—accelerating industry consolidation.