D-Glucose monohydrate

Recent Market Dynamics of Monohydrate Glucose

I. Price Trends
1. Domestic Market: Recently, the domestic price of monohydrate glucose has shown a slight upward fluctuation. The average ex-factory price in the main production area of Shandong rose from 4,200–4,300 RMB/ton last week to 4,350–4,450 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 2.3%–3.5%. Prices in Hebei, Henan, and other regions also rose synchronously, with increases ranging from 100 to 200 RMB/ton.
2. International Market: Driven by rising raw material corn costs and recovering demand, FOB quotes in Southeast Asia rose from 520–530 USD/ton to 540–550 USD/ton. CIF prices in the European market remained stable at 680–700 EUR/ton.

II. Supply and Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side:
- Domestic Operating Rates: Operating rates at enterprises in main production areas remained at 75%–80%, a 5 percentage point increase from the previous month. However, actual effective supply growth was limited due to environmental inspections and equipment maintenance at some enterprises.
- Inventory Levels: Manufacturer inventory decreased by 8% week-on-week to approximately 120,000 tons. Trader inventory levels are low, and restocking willingness has strengthened.
2. Demand Side:
- Food Industry: During the peak season for summer beverages and baking, the procurement volume for monohydrate glucose increased by 15%–20% month-on-month.
- Pharmaceutical and Chemical Industries: Demand for pharmaceutical-grade products remains stable, while demand in the chemical sector (e.g., fermentation, culture media) has seen a slight increase.
- Export Market: Orders from Southeast Asia and the Middle East have increased, with export volume up by 12% year-on-year.

III. Costs and Profits
1. Raw Material Costs: Corn prices continue to rise, with the purchase price in Northeast China exceeding 2,700 RMB/ton, a 10% year-on-year increase. This has pushed the production cost of monohydrate glucose up by approximately 200 RMB/ton.
2. Production Profits: At current prices, the gross profit margin for enterprises in main production areas has compressed to 8%–10%. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have suspended quotations due to cost pressures.

IV. Relevant Policies and Industry Dynamics
1. Policy Impact: The state has strengthened food security controls, and adjustments to subsidy policies for corn deep-processing enterprises have enhanced expectations of tight raw material supplies.
2. Industry Events: A large enterprise in Shandong plans to expand its monohydrate glucose production capacity by 100,000 tons per year, expected to come online in 2025. This may alleviate long-term supply pressures.

Analysis and Judgment
1. Short-term Driving Factors:
- Cost Push: High corn prices support monohydrate glucose prices, making it difficult for them to fall.
- Peak Demand: Restocking in the food industry combined with increased export orders provides strong short-term demand support.
2. Risk Points:
- Supply Side: Environmental inspections and equipment maintenance may lead to localized supply interruptions.
- Demand Side: If downstream industries complete their stockpiling in advance, demand may decline rapidly.

Forecast
1. Price Trends:
- Short-term (1–2 weeks): Prices will remain at a high level with fluctuations. The ex-factory price in main production areas may break through 4,500 RMB/ton.
- Medium-term (1–2 months): If corn prices continue to rise, monohydrate glucose prices may follow suit to 4,600–4,700 RMB/ton. If demand is released in advance, prices may correct slightly to 4,300–4,400 RMB/ton.
2. Supply and Demand Pattern:
- Supply: New production capacity will gradually be released after September, alleviating supply pressure. However, the short-term situation will remain a tight balance.
- Demand: Demand in the food industry is expected to continue until mid-September, and export orders may extend to the end of the year.
3. Operational Recommendations:
- Downstream Enterprises: Recommend purchasing according to actual needs and avoiding high-price hoarding. Monitor corn price fluctuations and enterprise operating dynamics.
- Traders: Can appropriately increase inventory but must control positions to prevent risks associated with price corrections.