Ethylene glycol diacetate

Ethylene Glycol Diacetate Market Dynamics Intelligence and Forecast Analysis

I. Recent Market Quotation Dynamics
| Date | Trader | Origin/Delivery Location | Price (CNY/ton) | Specification Details |
|------------|------------------------------|-------------------|----------------|---------------------------|
| 2026-07-28 | Suzhou Senfeida Chemical Co., Ltd. | Jiangsu Province/Suzhou City | 13,300 | National Standard |
| 2026-07-28 | Shandong Yushuo Chemical Co., Ltd. | Shandong Province/Jinan City | 6,300 | National Standard / Purity: 99.6% / 99.9% / 99% |
| 2026-07-28 | Shandong Yushuo Chemical Co., Ltd. | Shandong Province/Jinan City | 6,000 | Purity: 99.6% |
| 2026-07-27 | Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical Co., Ltd. | Hubei Province | 7,500 | Aochen Brand |
| 2026-07-27 | Nantong Zhonghe Chemical New Materials Co., Ltd. | Jiangsu Province/Nantong City | 9,000 | National Standard |

Price Volatility Characteristics:
1. Significant Regional Price Spread: The quotation in Suzhou (CNY 13,300/ton) is 111% higher than that in Shandong (CNY 6,300/ton), primarily attributable to brand premium and logistics costs.
2. Purity-Based Pricing Differentiation: High-purity products (≥99.6%) are priced between CNY 6,300–6,600/ton, whereas standard national-grade products exhibit a wide price range (CNY 6,000–9,000/ton), reflecting heightened market sensitivity to quality.
3. Short-Term Price Stabilization: From July 22 to 28, 2026, Shandong Yushuo Chemical maintained its quotation at CNY 6,300/ton for seven consecutive days, indicating a balanced supply-demand equilibrium.

II. Market Driving Factor Analysis
1. Cost-Side Support
- Declining Ethylene Glycol Prices: Following a spike to CNY 8,065/ton in the first half of 2026—driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions—diethylene glycol prices are expected to retreat in the second half, with average prices projected to fall to CNY 6,000–9,000/ton. As ethylene glycol is the primary raw material, its price decline will weaken cost support for ethylene glycol diacetate.
- Cost Advantage of Ethane-Based Production Route: Companies such as Satellite Chemical leverage ethane-to-ethylene routes to lower production costs; any recovery in ethylene glycol pricing from this route may transmit downstream, indirectly constraining ethylene glycol diacetate prices.

2. Supply-Demand Structural Shifts
- Supply Side:
Stable capacity release from producers including Shandong Yushuo Chemical, coupled with expansion by new entrants such as Nantong Zhonghe Chemical New Materials, is driving upward supply growth.
Reduced Import Dependence: Enhanced utilization rates of domestic ethylene glycol capacity are substituting part of import demand, thereby mitigating raw material supply volatility for ethylene glycol diacetate.
- Demand Side:
Concentrated Downstream Capacity Commissioning: On July 16, Fangxin (Anhui) Resin commenced trial operation of its 500,000-ton unsaturated polyester resin facility; additional polyester industry projects are also progressing, boosting solvent demand.
Postponed Peak Season Expectation: Prior high raw material prices suppressed downstream procurement; with current low inventory levels, restocking activity is anticipated during August–September.

3. Substitute Competition
- Price Volatility of Ethylene Glycol Diacetate (EGDA): EGDA prices declined from CNY 6,866.67/ton in June to CNY 6,425/ton, rebounding to CNY 6,633.33/ton on July 2—indicating broad-based recovery in solvent market demand. However, given application overlap with ethylene glycol diacetate, competitive pricing pressure may cap upside potential for ethylene glycol diacetate.

III. Future Trend Forecast
1. Price Range Outlook
- Short Term (Within 1 Month): Supported by downstream restocking demand, mainstream quotations in Shandong may rise modestly to CNY 6,500–6,800/ton, though acceptance of higher prices remains limited.
- Medium Term (3–6 Months): Should diethylene glycol prices fall below CNY 6,000/ton as anticipated, reduced production costs could drive ethylene glycol diacetate average prices down to CNY 6,000–6,500/ton.
- Long Term (1 Year): With further expansion of domestic ethylene glycol capacity and improved raw material supply stability, the long-term price center for ethylene glycol diacetate is expected to shift downward to CNY 5,500–6,000/ton.

2. Risk Factors
- Geopolitical Disruption: Recurrent Middle East tensions may re-escalate crude oil and ethylene glycol prices, interrupting the downward cost trend.
- Demand Underperformance: Delays in downstream resin and polyester project commissioning could exacerbate supply-demand imbalance and accelerate price declines.
- Stricter Environmental Regulations: Upgraded VOC (Volatile Organic Compound) emission standards for solvent producers may increase compliance costs and push up market quotations.

IV. Operational Recommendations
- Producers: Optimize raw material procurement strategies—e.g., secure long-term supply contracts for low-cost ethane feedstock—and strengthen collaboration with downstream resin enterprises to increase long-term contract share.
- Traders: Monitor arbitrage opportunities arising from the Shandong–Suzhou price spread and leverage regional logistics advantages to minimize inventory risk.
- End Users: Build inventory in phased batches ahead of the August peak season to avoid cost inflation from concentrated purchases; concurrently explore partial substitution with alternatives such as EGDA.