Ethylene glycol diacetate

Market Intelligence on Ethylene Glycol DiacetateI. Price Trends1. **Domestic Market**: Over the past week, mainstream market prices for ethylene glycol diacetate have shown a narrow-range fluctuation. The average spot price in the East China region has fluctuated between 8,500 and 8,700 yuan/ton. Prices in the South China region are slightly higher by 200-300 yuan/ton, while prices in the Northern market are slightly lower due to logistics costs.2. **International Market**: FOB China main port prices remain stable at USD 1,100-1,150/ton. CFR Southeast Asia prices are approximately USD 1,180-1,220/ton. Prices in European and American markets have slightly decreased to USD 1,300-1,350/ton due to weak demand.II. Supply and Demand Dynamics1. **Supply Side**: - Domestic operating rates are maintained at 75%-80%. Major production facilities (such as certain plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang) are operating stably, with no new maintenance plans scheduled. - Import volumes have decreased by 12% month-on-month, as international suppliers prioritize supplying the European and American markets, leading to tighter supply in Asia.2. **Demand Side**: - Downstream coatings and ink industries have entered the traditional off-season, with procurement volumes down 8% month-on-month. However, demand in the solvent sector remains rigid. - New export orders have decreased by 15% year-on-year due to slow digestion of overseas inventories.III. Costs and Profits1. **Raw Material Costs**: - Ethylene glycol prices, influenced by crude oil fluctuations, averaged 4,500-4,600 yuan/ton over the past week, representing a 2% month-on-month increase. - Acetic acid prices have continued to fall due to oversupply, with mainstream prices in East China dropping to 2,800-2,900 yuan/ton, a 5% month-on-month decrease.2. **Production Profit**: The industry average gross margin remains at 500-600 yuan/ton, slightly compressed compared to last month, but still within a reasonable range.IV. Inventory and Logistics1. **Inventory Levels**: Total domestic social inventory is approximately 28,000 tons, down 3,000 tons month-on-month. Inventory pressure at East China ports is relatively low.2. **Logistics Impact**: Snow and rain weather in the Northern region have reduced transportation efficiency, causing delivery delays of 1-2 days in local areas.V. Policy and Industry Trends1. Stricter environmental protection policies are posing production restriction risks to some small and medium-sized enterprises due to non-compliance with exhaust gas treatment standards.2. Industry associations are calling on enterprises to strengthen safety production management to avoid regional supply disruptions caused by accidents.Analysis and Judgment1. **Short-term (1-2 weeks)**: Prices are expected to maintain a narrow-range fluctuation, supported by raw material ethylene glycol costs and rigid downstream procurement. The expected fluctuation range is 8,500-8,800 yuan/ton.2. **Medium-term (1-2 months)**: If demand from the coatings industry does not improve significantly, combined with the replenishment of imported supply, prices may face downward pressure, with a target price range of 8,200-8,400 yuan/ton.3. **Long-term (3-6 months)**: Attention should be paid to crude oil price trends and the recovery of overseas demand. If cost-side increases coincide with a rebound in export orders, prices could rebound to over 9,000 yuan/ton.Risk Warnings1. Risk of significant fluctuations in raw material ethylene glycol prices;2. Risk of unexpected decline in downstream industry demand;3. Risk of export obstacles due to international trade friction.