Сульфат калия (VI)

Recent Market Dynamics and Intelligence
1. Price Trends
- The domestic market price of potassium sulfate shows a general trend of stability with localized increases. The average ex-factory price for 52% powder mannheim potassium sulfate ranges from 3,200 to 3,300 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 50 to 100 RMB/ton compared to previous periods. The ex-factory price for 50% powder processed potassium sulfate is mostly in the range of 3,100 to 3,200 RMB/ton, also showing a certain degree of upward adjustment.
- Price differences exist across different regions. Due to earlier demand activation, prices in Northeast China are relatively higher, with the ex-factory price for 52% powder reaching around 3,350 RMB/ton. In contrast, prices in South China remain relatively stable, with the mainstream ex-factory price for 50% powder hovering around 3,150 RMB/ton.

2. Supply Situation
- The overall capacity utilization rate of potassium sulfate production facilities remains stable. Some enterprises have slightly increased their utilization rates due to sufficient orders, with the industry average currently around 65% to 70%.
- The price of raw material potassium chloride remains firm, and supply is tight. This provides strong cost support for potassium sulfate producers. Some enterprises, facing cost pressures, are controlling their order acceptance volume, leading to a slight tightness in spot market supply.

3. Demand Situation
- In terms of agricultural demand, as the spring fertilizer preparation season approaches, downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are gradually increasing their purchases of potassium sulfate, particularly showing strong demand for high-concentration potassium sulfate products.
- In terms of industrial demand, demand for potassium sulfate from industries such as titanium dioxide remains stable, but overall incremental growth is not significant.

4. Inventory Situation
- The overall inventory levels of potassium sulfate enterprises are not high. Large enterprises maintain inventories of around 10,000 to 20,000 tons, while small and medium-sized enterprises mostly hold a few thousand tons. Consequently, the overall market inventory pressure is relatively low.

Analysis and Judgment
1. Cost Support: The high price and tight supply of raw material potassium chloride keep the production cost of potassium sulfate elevated. To ensure profit margins, enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain high prices, which is one of the main factors driving the price increase.
2. Demand Pull: The gradual release of spring fertilizer preparation demand and active procurement by compound fertilizer enterprises provide strong support for the potassium sulfate market, driving market prices upward.
3. Restricted Supply: Although the capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, enterprises are controlling their order acceptance volume due to cost and order factors. This tightness in spot market supply further exacerbates the upward trend in prices.

Forecast
1. Short-term (1-2 weeks): The market price of potassium sulfate will continue to show a trend of stability with slight increases. As spring fertilizer preparation demand is further released, enterprises will have sufficient orders. Under the support of costs and tight supply, prices still have room for slight increases. The average ex-factory price for 52% powder is expected to rise to 3,350-3,400 RMB/ton.
2. Medium-term (1-2 months): If the price of raw material potassium chloride remains high and spring fertilizer preparation demand does not decrease, the market price of potassium sulfate is likely to remain at a high level. However, attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm and inventory changes of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises. If their inventory accumulates to a certain extent, it may exert a certain inhibitory effect on prices.
3. Long-term (more than 3 months): As the spring fertilizer preparation period ends, agricultural demand will gradually weaken. If there is no significant increase in industrial demand, the market price of potassium sulfate may face some downward pressure. However, considering raw material costs and enterprise production costs, the extent of the price correction will be limited, and the price will generally fluctuate within a relatively reasonable range.