O،O'-Bis (2-أمينوبروبيل) بولي بروبيلينجليكول

Polyetheramine Market Intelligence Report (Recent Commodity Market Dynamics)

I. Price Trend
- July 22, 2026: Spot quotation for Polyetheramine D-230 (molecular weight 230) stood at RMB 14,000–14,500 per metric ton; actual transaction prices subject to negotiation.
- July 24, 2026: Market quotations for Polyetheramine D-230 remained steady within the RMB 14,000–14,500/ton range; regional price premiums or discounts emerged in certain areas due to increased logistics costs.
- July 27, 2026: No significant price fluctuation observed; mainstream transaction prices continued to concentrate within RMB 14,000–14,500/ton, with slight upward pressure on premium-tier prices attributable to brand value.

II. Supply-Demand Structure
- Demand Side:
- July is traditionally a low-demand season; downstream procurement remains largely demand-driven. Wind power and construction sectors collectively account for over 80% of total demand; however, high-temperature weather has slowed construction progress, limiting overall incremental demand.
- Emerging sectors—including new-energy vehicles and smart home applications—show notable growth in demand, yet their combined share remains below 5%, exerting only limited supportive impact on the market.
- Supply Side:
- Domestic capacity utilization stands at approximately 75%; major production facilities in Shandong and Jiangsu provinces maintain stable operations; however, some producers have reduced operating loads due to tight supply of propylene oxide (PO), a key raw material.
- Imported volumes account for ~30% of total supply, primarily sourced from global industry leaders such as Huntsman and BASF; however, recent port arrivals have declined, resulting in regional supply tightness.

III. Cost Drivers
- Propylene Oxide (PO) Price: Since mid-July, PO prices have risen by RMB 800–1,000/ton, driven by upstream crude oil price increases stemming from geopolitical conflicts—strengthening cost support for polyetheramine and pushing up its production costs.
- Crude Oil Correlation: Escalating U.S.–Iran tensions have pushed Brent crude oil prices above USD 85/barrel. Crude oil accounts for ~45% of polyetheramine’s production cost structure, leading to pronounced cost-pass-through effects.

IV. Market Sentiment
- Bullish Factors:
- Persistent tightness in PO supply outlook; e.g., a major Shandong-based producer has increased external PO procurement, suggesting PO prices are more likely to rise than fall.
- Scheduled maintenance shutdowns at large northern producers are imminent in August, reinforcing market expectations of near-term supply contraction.
- Bearish Factors:
- Downstream resistance to higher prices has intensified; trading activity notably cooled after July 22, prompting several producers to suspend price adjustments.
- Weak seasonal demand lacks sustainability; absent new positive catalysts, prices lack momentum for sustained upside movement.

Analysis & Outlook
1. Short-Term Volatility: In late July, polyetheramine prices reflect a dual dynamic—robust cost support versus weak demand restraint—resulting in sideways consolidation within RMB 14,000–14,500/ton. Significant downside is unlikely, with the floor estimated at no lower than RMB 8,000/ton.
2. Medium-Term Trend: Should the scheduled August maintenance at northern mega-producers proceed as planned—and coupled with ongoing PO supply constraints—prices may edge upward to RMB 14,800–15,200/ton. However, downside risk persists should downstream buyers reject elevated pricing levels.
3. Long-Term Outlook: In H2 2026, rising wind turbine installation volumes and expanding new-energy vehicle demand are expected to lift polyetheramine consumption by 12–15% YoY. Nevertheless, domestic capacity expansion (an additional ~100,000 tons/year projected) may offset part of this growth, keeping the full-year average price range anchored at RMB 14,000–16,000/ton.

Forecast
1. Price Range: For August 2026, the mainstream transaction price for Polyetheramine D-230 is projected to trade between RMB 14,500–15,200/ton; under extreme conditions (e.g., PO prices exceeding RMB 12,000/ton), prices could briefly reach RMB 15,500/ton.
2. Key Risks:
- Easing of geopolitical tensions leading to crude oil price retreat, thereby weakening cost support.
- Accelerated release of new domestic capacity intensifying competitive pressure.
- Underperformance in wind power and construction sector demand, dragging down price momentum.
3. Operational Recommendations:
- End-users with essential procurement needs may consider phased inventory building upon price dips to below RMB 14,200/ton.
- Traders should closely monitor PO inventory dynamics to mitigate risks arising from sudden supply-side disruptions.
- Producers are advised to optimize production scheduling to avoid localized supply shortages triggered by maintenance activities.