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In 2023–2024, China, South Korea, and India were the leading exporters of lead (CAS 7439-92-1), while the United States, Germany, and the Netherlands ranked among the top importers globally. These countries collectively accounted for a substantial share of both export and import volumes, reflecting established refining capacity and industrial demand in batteries and construction sectors. Lead prices remained relatively stable through 2023 but edged upward in early 2024 amid tightening supply from key mining regions and sustained battery-related demand, contributing to modest growth in export values despite flat volume trends.
1# Lead Recent Commodity Market Dynamics Intelligence
I. Price Trends
- Futures Market: On July 27, 2026, the closing price of the lead main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 15,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% from the previous trading day. The opening price was 15,680 yuan/ton, with a high of 15,735 yuan/ton and a low of 15,590 yuan/ton. On July 28, the lead main contract price rose slightly to 15,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29%.
- Spot Market: On July 27, spot prices for 1# lead in various parts of China showed a downward trend. In Tianjin, the lowest, highest, and average prices for 1# lead were all 15,400 yuan/ton, representing a decrease of 175 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price for Hunan Nonferrous Metals' 1# lead was 15,435 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The average price for Foshan spot 1# lead was 15,650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The average price for Changjiang spot 1# lead was 15,600 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton from the previous day.
- Monthly Average Price: The monthly average price for 1# lead ingots in July 2026 was 15,797.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 445.56 yuan/ton (2.74%) from the previous month.
II. Market Supply and Demand
- Supply Side: Both primary lead and recycled lead supply face pressure. High inventories are weighing on lead prices, with LME lead inventory approaching 50-year highs. Large companies such as Glencore plan to increase production, further intensifying market expectations of oversupply.
- Demand Side: The battery industry has entered a traditional off-season, with weak downstream purchasing willingness and limited demand absorption. Although the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry continues to drive growth in demand for lead-acid batteries, overall demand growth is insufficient to offset the excess supply.
III. Relevant Events
- Lead Exceedance Incident: The Macao Municipal Affairs Bureau and the Medicines Administration reported that a batch of \"Royal FrieslandCampina 1 Infant Formula\" samples tested positive for excessive lead content, sparking concerns about lead pollution. Although this incident is directly related to the food sector, it may indirectly influence market expectations regarding regulations on lead and its compounds.
- Industry Transformation: Jiaoyun Shares officially changed its name to \"Jiushi Dynamic Entertainment,\" transitioning from auto parts manufacturing to a comprehensive cultural, sports, tourism, and transportation operation platform. It acquired top-tier event IPs such as Formula 1 and the ATP Finals, along with core venue resources. While not directly linked to the lead market, this reflects industrial restructuring trends that may impact the long-term demand for traditional industrial metals like lead.
Analysis and Judgment
I. Short-Term Price Trends
- Lead prices will remain weakly volatile in the short term. The dual weakness in supply and demand persists, with high inventories and off-season demand being the main factors suppressing prices. Although the futures market showed a slight rebound, continued declines in spot market prices indicate weak market confidence.
II. Medium-Term Influencing Factors
- Environmental Policies: Increasingly strict global environmental regulations may restrict lead mining and smelting activities, reducing market supply. However, in the short term, the direct impact of environmental policies on lead prices is limited, primarily affecting the market through changes in expectations.
- New Energy Vehicles: The booming new energy vehicle industry continues to drive growth in demand for lead-acid batteries, providing new growth points for the lead market. However, the impact of NEVs on lead demand will take time to materialize and may be offset by competing technologies such as lithium-ion batteries.
III. Long-Term Trends
- The lead market faces long-term structural adjustment pressures. With rising environmental awareness and policy support, traditional application areas for lead-acid batteries are gradually being phased out. Meanwhile, demand growth in emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and energy storage may not be sufficient to offset the decline in traditional sectors. Therefore, the lead market needs to identify new development directions and growth drivers.
Forecast
I. Short-Term Forecast
- Lead prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with a price fluctuation range between 15,400 yuan/ton and 16,200 yuan/ton. The dual weakness in supply and demand, along with high inventories and off-season demand, will continue to suppress prices.
II. Medium-to-Long-Term Forecast
- In the medium to long term, lead price trends will depend on the degree of improvement in supply-demand dynamics and the growth of demand in emerging sectors. If environmental policies continue to tighten, restricting lead mining and smelting, it could reduce supply and push prices higher. Additionally, demand growth in new energy vehicles and energy storage may provide new support for the lead market. However, if the decline in traditional application areas accelerates too quickly or if demand growth in emerging sectors falls short of expectations, lead prices may face downward pressure.
Lead is a dense, malleable, bluish-gray metal that is solid at room temperature and exhibits low volatility; it melts at 327.5 °C and boils at 1749 °C. It is classified as a post-transition metal and elemental heavy metal. Lead serves primarily as a raw material in the production of lead–acid batteries, radiation shielding, and lead-based alloys for bearings and solder. It is also used in the manufacture of certain pigments (e.g., lead chromates), stabilizers for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and specialty glass, including optical and radiation-protective glass. Its applications are concentrated in energy storage, construction materials, automotive components, and industrial shielding.
Lead is one of the oldest metals known to civilization. The uses of some of its alloys and salts have been documented early in history. The element derived its symbol Pb from the Latin word plumbium. The metal is rarely found in nature in its native form; however, it is found in several minerals, such as galena (PbS), anglesite (PbSO4), minium (Pb3O4) and cerussite (PbCO3). Its concentration in the earth’s crust is 12.5 mg/kg and in sea water 0.03mg/L.Lead has numerous applications as metal, alloys and compounds. The major applications of the metal and its alloys such as solder are as materials of construction for pipe lines, plumbing fixtures, wires, ammunition, containers for corrosive acids and shield against short-wavelength radiation. Another major application is in storage batteries in which both the metal and its dioxide are used. Several lead compounds, such as lead chromate (chrome yellow), lead sulfate (white lead), lead tetroxide (red lead), and the basic carbonate are used in paints.
Occurring naturally in the earth’s crust, lead is a heavy bluish-gray metal that is lustrous when freshly cut. It is rarely found as a pure metal but rather is complexed with other elements to form lead compounds. Found in ore with copper, zinc, and silver, lead is found in mineral form as galena (PbS), anglesite (PbSO4), and cerussite (PbCO3). It is easily malleable, smelted, and can be added to other metals to form alloys. Resistant to air and water corrosion, it does not mix easily with many solvents but will react with hot acids such as nitric and sulfuric. It has 4 naturally occurring isotopes as well as 17 that have been produced experimentally. Burning with a bluish-white flame, powdered lead displays pyrophoricity and releases toxic fumes when burned.
This chemical is included in Other. See more about what is Lead and Lead SDS information.
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