Carbon

I. Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. Raw Material Price Fluctuations
- Coal prices have shown a slight upward trend recently, especially high-quality anthracite, which is one of the main raw materials for activated carbon production. The increase in coal prices has raised the production costs of activated carbon.
- Wood prices remain relatively stable, but in some regions, wood supply has tightened slightly due to environmental protection policies, potentially impacting activated carbon production that relies on wood as a raw material.
2. Supply Situation
- The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic activated carbon production enterprises remains around 70%-80%. Large enterprises maintain stable production and can fulfill orders on time; however, the capacity utilization rates of some small and medium-sized enterprises fluctuate due to environmental inspections, equipment maintenance, and other factors, leading to uncertainty in market supply.
- On the import side, the volume of imported activated carbon has decreased due to rising international logistics costs and adjustments in export policies of certain countries. The supply of high-end activated carbon products is particularly tight.
3. Demand Situation
- Demand for activated carbon in the water treatment industry is growing steadily. With increasingly strict environmental requirements, water treatment plants are continuously increasing their procurement of activated carbon to improve water quality treatment efficiency.
- Demand in the air purification field is robust. Specifically, in the indoor air purification market, driven by consumers' heightened attention to healthy environments and the recovery of the real estate market boosting renovation demand, sales of activated carbon for air purification have risen significantly.
- Demand in the food and pharmaceutical industries is also growing, mainly used for decolorization, purification, and other process stages, with high quality requirements for activated carbon.
4. Price Trends
- The overall market price of activated carbon has shown a stable upward trend recently. The price of ordinary coal-based activated carbon has increased by 200-500 RMB per ton, representing a 3%-8% rise; the price of wood-based activated carbon has increased by 300-800 RMB per ton, representing a 4%-10% rise. Price increases for high-end activated carbon products are even more pronounced, with some prices rising by over 1,000 RMB per ton.

II. Analysis and Judgment
1. Cost Push: The rise in coal prices and the potential tightening of wood supply have directly increased the production costs of activated carbon, which is a key factor driving the increase in activated carbon prices. To maintain profit margins, producers have had to raise product prices.
2. Supply Constraints: Fluctuations in the capacity utilization rates of domestic small and medium-sized enterprises and the reduction in imported activated carbon have led to a decrease in overall market supply. Against the backdrop of growing demand, this supply shortage has further driven up activated carbon prices.
3. Demand Pull: Steady growth in demand for activated carbon across water treatment, air purification, food, and pharmaceutical industries, particularly the robust demand in the air purification sector, has provided strong support for the activated carbon market, pushing prices upward.

III. Forecast
1. Short-term (1-3 months): Activated carbon market prices are expected to continue a stable upward trend. Raw material prices are unlikely to drop significantly in the short term, and the tight supply situation will persist. Meanwhile, robust demand will jointly support prices. However, the pace of price increases may slow down, as downstream enterprises have a limited tolerance for high prices.
2. Medium-term (3-6 months): If coal prices continue to rise or if wood supply issues are not effectively resolved, the production costs of activated carbon will further increase, potentially leading to continued price increases. However, as the market gradually absorbs the price increases and some enterprises may expand production to increase supply, the pace of price growth may be curbed.
3. Long-term (6+ months): In the long run, the price trend of activated carbon will depend on the stability of raw material supply, changes in environmental policies, and the development of downstream industries. If environmental policies continue to drive the development of water treatment and air purification industries, keeping demand for activated carbon growing, prices are likely to remain at a high level. Conversely, if raw material supply increases significantly or new alternative products emerge, activated carbon prices may face downward pressure.