Carbon

Recent Dynamics of the Market for Activated Carbon
1. Raw Material Prices - Coal: The price of thermal coal has generally shown a stable trend with slight increases in recent times. In some regions, due to tight supply, prices have risen by 5-10 yuan/ton. The price of high-quality anthracite remains relatively stable, but transportation costs have increased due to factors such as weather, indirectly affecting the production cost of activated carbon. - Wood-based Raw Materials: The supply in the timber market is basically stable, with small price fluctuations. However, stricter environmental policies in some regions have imposed restrictions on wood processing enterprises, potentially affecting the subsequent supply of raw materials for wood-based activated carbon.
2. Production Status - Operating Rates: The overall operating rate of domestic activated carbon enterprises remains around 70-75%. Large enterprises maintain stable production with operating rates above 80%, while small and medium-sized enterprises experience significant fluctuations in operating rates due to environmental and financial factors, with some intermittently shutting down. - New Capacity: A few enterprises have plans for new activated carbon capacity recently, but the release of this capacity is slow due to constraints such as environmental approval. It is expected that the impact on market supply in the short term will be limited.
3. Market Demand - Water Treatment Sector: With increasing environmental requirements, the demand for activated carbon in the water treatment industry continues to grow. Especially in industrial wastewater treatment and municipal sewage treatment projects, the procurement volume of activated carbon is steadily increasing, with some regions experiencing a situation where demand outstrips supply. - Air Purification Sector: Influenced by smog weather and increased attention to indoor air quality, the market demand for activated carbon used in air purification is strong. The demand for activated carbon in household air purifiers and car air purifiers continues to rise. - Food and Beverage Sector: The demand for activated carbon in the food and beverage industry remains steadily growing, mainly used for decolorization, refining, and purification of sugar solutions, alcoholic beverages, and drinks.
4. Import and Export Situation - Imports: The volume of activated carbon imports has slightly decreased recently, mainly because domestic demand is partially met by domestic capacity, and the competitiveness of imported products has weakened due to international market fluctuations and exchange rate impacts. - Exports: The activated carbon export market performs well, with a continuous increase in export volume. Mainly exported to Southeast Asia, Europe, and other regions, benefiting from the improvement in the quality of domestic activated carbon and its price advantage.
5. Price Trends - Coal-based Activated Carbon: Prices generally show a stable upward trend, with the price of ordinary coal-based activated carbon increasing by 50-100 yuan/ton, while the price increase for high-end coal-based activated carbon is relatively smaller, rising by 20-50 yuan/ton. - Wood-based Activated Carbon: Prices fluctuate less and remain basically stable. However, influenced by raw material and transportation costs, some enterprises have intentions to raise prices.

Analysis and Judgment
1. Supply Side: Raw material prices are stable with a slight upward trend. Specifically, the rise in coal prices and increased transportation costs will push up the production costs of activated carbon. Although there are plans for new capacity, the release of this capacity is limited in the short term, and overall supply growth is slow.
2. Demand Side: Continued growth in demand for activated carbon in water treatment, air purification, and food and beverage sectors provides strong support for the market. Especially under the promotion of environmental policies, demand in the water treatment and air purification sectors is expected to expand further.
3. Competition Side: The domestic activated carbon market is highly competitive, with enterprises competing on product quality, price, and service. Large enterprises hold a certain market share due to their scale advantages and brand influence, while small and medium-sized enterprises seek development through differentiated competition.
4. Import and Export Side: The decrease in import volume and increase in export volume are conducive to balancing domestic supply and demand, alleviating domestic supply pressure, and enhancing the international competitiveness of domestic activated carbon enterprises.

Forecast
1. Price Forecast: In the short term, influenced by rising costs and growing demand, activated carbon prices will continue to show a stable upward trend. It is expected that the price of coal-based activated carbon will increase by 50-150 yuan/ton, and the price of wood-based activated carbon will increase by 20-100 yuan/ton. In the long run, price trends will depend on raw material prices, market demand, and the release of capacity.
2. Market Supply and Demand Forecast: With the continuous promotion of environmental policies and the growth of downstream industry demand, the demand for activated carbon will continue to remain strong. On the supply side, although there is new capacity, the release speed is slow due to environmental and other factors, and the market supply and demand will remain in a tight balance.
3. Industry Development Trend Forecast: In the future, the activated carbon industry will develop towards green, environmentally friendly, and efficient directions. Enterprises will increase R&D investment, improve product quality and performance, and develop new activated carbon products to meet the needs of different fields. Meanwhile, industry consolidation will accelerate, with large enterprises expanding their scale through mergers and acquisitions to increase market concentration.