Potassium carbonate

Potassium Carbonate Market Dynamics Intelligence and Analytical Forecast (July 8, 2026)

I. Recent Price Dynamics
1. Benchmark Price Trend
- June 18–21, 2026: Benchmark price remained stable at RMB 7,800/ton.
- June 22–30, 2026: Benchmark price decreased to RMB 7,775/ton, a decline of 0.32%.
- July 1–7, 2026: Benchmark price further declined to RMB 7,700/ton, with a single-day drop of 0.96% on July 2.

2. Enterprise Quotation Divergence
- Low-price Segment: Qinghai Salt Lake Group enterprises quoted RMB 6,600–6,990/ton (e.g., Shandong Jinshengrun Chemical Co., Ltd.; Jinan Jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd.).
- Mid-price Segment: Wento Group enterprises quoted RMB 7,000–7,450/ton (e.g., Shandong Yuanhexingsheng Chemical Co., Ltd.; Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical Co., Ltd.).
- High-price Segment: Enterprises in Jiangsu/Shanghai regions quoted RMB 7,800–8,100/ton (e.g., Changzhou Aozun Chemical Co., Ltd.; Shanghai Shijian Industrial Co., Ltd.).

II. Key Driving Factor Analysis
1. Cost-End Pressure
- Fluctuations in potassium chloride prices directly affect potassium carbonate production costs. Tight potassium chloride supply in the first half of 2025 drove upward pressure on potassium carbonate prices; however, current port inventories have rebounded to 1.95 million tons, easing the previously tight supply situation and weakening cost support.

2. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side: Domestic capacity utilization has risen to 90%; output reached 1.08 million tons in 2025—nearly matching domestic consumption of 1.05 million tons—resulting in a near-tight equilibrium. Leading enterprises such as Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Co., Ltd. have reduced costs through economies of scale, placing smaller manufacturers under intense pricing pressure.
- Demand Side:
Agricultural Sector: Summer fertilizer demand is dominated by high-nitrogen formulations; autumn fertilizer procurement has not yet commenced, and compound fertilizer plant operating rates remain low at only 25%–30%, reflecting weak downstream purchasing intent.
Industrial Sector: Demand from glass and ceramic industries remains stable; meanwhile, import dependency for electronic-grade potassium carbonate is declining (imports fell 22.4% year-on-year in 2023), accelerating domestic substitution.

3. Policy and Trade Impacts
- Stricter environmental regulations are accelerating the elimination of outdated production capacity, raising industry concentration to CR5 = 58%.
- Import sources are shifting toward the Middle East (imports from Israel and Jordan increased by over 50%), reducing geopolitical disruption risks—though high-end products still rely significantly on imports.

III. Short-Term (1–3 Months) Forecast
1. Price Trend: Benchmark price may decline further to the RMB 7,600–7,650/ton range.
- Supportive Factors: Autumn fertilizer demand will gradually commence in August, lifting compound fertilizer plant operating rates to an estimated 40%–50%, thereby stimulating restocking activity.
- Pressuring Factors: Port inventories are expected to rise above 2.0 million tons, ensuring ample supply; traders continue to offload inventory to avoid losses.

2. Regional Price Spread: Low-priced products from Qinghai Salt Lake Group may penetrate East and South China markets, forcing local producers to cut prices and launch promotional campaigns.

IV. Medium-Term (3–6 Months) Forecast
1. Price Recovery Window: Prices may rebound to RMB 7,800–8,000/ton during September–October.
- Demand Drivers: Full-scale commencement of autumn fertilizer application is expected to boost compound fertilizer consumption by 5.1% year-on-year; demand for electronic-grade potassium carbonate is projected to surge by 41.8% due to expanded new-energy battery manufacturing capacity.
- Supply Constraints: Winter brine freezing in Qinghai may reduce output by 10%–15%; additionally, scheduled maintenance at Qinghai Salt Lake Potash’s facilities could cause temporary supply tightening.

2. Structural Differentiation: Prices for high-purity grades (≥99.5%) may rise by RMB 200–300/ton more than standard industrial-grade products.

V. Long-Term (1+ Years) Outlook
1. Capacity Expansion and Substitution Risks
- Qinghai Salt Lake Potash plans to add 100,000 tons of new capacity in 2026; however, ongoing competition between potassium and sodium resources may constrain long-term price levels.
- Should CO? mineralization carbon-capture coupled potassium production technology overcome engineering bottlenecks, it could account for 10%–15% of newly added capacity by 2030, reducing production costs to RMB 3,850/ton and fundamentally reshaping the industry’s cost curve.

2. Policy Orientation: Government policies promoting agricultural slow-release fertilizers will drive structural shifts in industrial-grade product demand; the share of high-value-added products is projected to increase from 15% in 2025 to 30% by 2030.

VI. Risk Alerts
1. Extreme Weather: Production disruptions in Qinghai Salt Lake during winter months could trigger sharp short-term price spikes.
2. Trade Frictions: Changes in Middle Eastern export policies may destabilize import supply chain reliability.
3. Technological Breakthroughs: Accelerated commercialization of CO? mineralization carbon-capture technology may hasten industry consolidation and restructuring.