Anthracite

Analysis of Recent Market Dynamics for Anthracite Coal

I. Market Price Trends
1. Domestic Price Trends
- National Bureau of Statistics Data: As of mid-July 2026, the price of washed medium-sized anthracite coal stood at RMB 1,258.7 per ton, an increase of RMB 68.4 per ton (5.7%) compared to early July and a year-on-year increase of 5.7%.
- Prices in Major Producing Regions:
- Jincheng Region: Block coal prices rose by RMB 91–97 per ton week-on-week and by RMB 512–517 per ton year-on-year; pulverized coal (for blast furnace injection) prices increased by RMB 26–30 per ton week-on-week and by RMB 291–419 per ton year-on-year; sintering coal prices rose by RMB 94 per ton week-on-week and by RMB 395 per ton year-on-year.
- Yangquan Region: Block coal prices rose by RMB 178 per ton week-on-week and by RMB 626 per ton year-on-year.
- Port Prices: Jincheng pulverized coal prices at Rizhao Port increased by RMB 40 per ton week-on-week and by RMB 420 per ton year-on-year; imported Australian and Russian pulverized coal prices at Rizhao and Jingtan Ports rose by RMB 90 per ton week-on-week and by RMB 420 per ton year-on-year.
- Ministry of Commerce Monitoring Data: For the week of July 13–19, 2026, the average national anthracite coal price was RMB 888.66 per ton, down 0.2% week-on-week.

2. International Price Trends
- In 2025, China’s anthracite coal imports totaled 15.116 million tons, up 4.34% year-on-year, while import value amounted to RMB 12.18 billion, down 10.75% year-on-year; exports reached 2.932 million tons, down 11.86% year-on-year, with export value totaling RMB 3.25 billion, down 30.98% year-on-year.

II. Supply-Demand Analysis
1. Supply Side
- Production Constraints: China’s anthracite coal output shows steady yet modest growth; however, newly added capacity remains limited, technical upgrading potential is insufficient, and production costs in major producing regions remain relatively high—constraining future output expansion.
- Safety Inspections: Strict safety inspections continue across major producing regions, significantly curtailing anthracite supply, and pithead inventories continue to decline.

2. Demand Side
- Chemical Industry Demand: The urea market remains weak; fixed-bed chemical enterprises face mounting losses, yet plant utilization rates remain high—coal-fired urea facilities operate at 96.25% capacity, sustaining baseline demand for feedstock coal.
- Metallurgical Demand: Ironwater output and blast furnace operating rates at steel mills continue declining, compounded by weak profitability—reducing demand for pulverized anthracite used in metallurgy.

III. Market Sentiment and Trading Activity
- Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment has cooled slightly, with coastal coal shipping rates edging downward; nonetheless, the anthracite market remains relatively strong, with both block and pulverized coal prices rising robustly.
- Trading Activity: Major provincial coal enterprises have raised long-term contract (LTC) block coal prices at loading points by RMB 30–80 per ton; pithead sales remain active.

IV. Analysis and Assessment
1. Short-Term Outlook
- The anthracite market is expected to maintain its relatively strong performance in the near term, with prices likely to remain elevated or rise modestly. Continued stringent safety inspections in major producing regions constrain supply, while sustained feedstock demand from chemical enterprises provides underlying support—both factors jointly driving price increases.

2. Long-Term Trend
- Over the longer term, the anthracite market will be shaped by multiple interrelated factors—including production capacity constraints, rising production costs, and structural shifts in end-use demand. Limited new capacity additions and insufficient scope for technological upgrades restrict output growth potential, lending upward price support. However, weakening metallurgical demand may exert downward pressure on the market, necessitating close monitoring of downstream industry developments.

V. Forecast
1. Price Forecast
- Over the next month, anthracite prices are expected to remain at elevated levels, with minor fluctuations possible but an overall upward trend likely. Prices in major producing regions may continue rising, while port prices—subject to international market influences—may undergo adjustments but are expected to remain broadly stable.

2. Supply-Demand Forecast
- On the supply side, ongoing safety inspections in major producing regions will continue to constrain output, reinforcing a clear supply contraction trend. On the demand side, chemical sector demand is expected to remain stable and supportive, whereas metallurgical demand may weaken further. Overall, tightening supply-demand fundamentals are likely to sustain upward pricing pressure.