46-grade anti-wear hydraulic oil

Market Intelligence on No. 46 Anti-wear Hydraulic Oil

I. Price Trends
1. Domestic Market
- East China: Over the past week, the mainstream transaction price for No. 46 anti-wear hydraulic oil has ranged from 6,200 to 6,500 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 100 to 150 RMB/ton, or 1.6% to 2.4%, compared to the previous week.
- South China: Prices range from 6,300 to 6,600 RMB/ton, up by 120 to 180 RMB/ton, or 1.9% to 2.8%, compared to the previous week.
- North China: Prices range from 6,100 to 6,400 RMB/ton, up by 80 to 130 RMB/ton, or 1.3% to 2.1%, compared to the previous week.
2. International Market
- Southeast Asia: FOB prices range from 850 to 900 USD/ton, up by 15 to 20 USD/ton, or 1.7% to 2.3%, compared to the previous week.
- Middle East: FOB prices range from 830 to 880 USD/ton, up by 10 to 15 USD/ton, or 1.2% to 1.8%, compared to the previous week.

II. Market Supply and Demand
1. Supply Side
- The operating rate of major domestic producers remains stable at 75% to 80%, unchanged from the previous week. Some manufacturers have experienced short-term production cuts due to equipment maintenance, but overall supply has not been significantly affected.
- Imports: The number of arriving vessels has decreased recently, leading to an 8% month-on-month decline in import volumes, primarily due to reduced efficiency in international logistics.
2. Demand Side
- Demand in the construction machinery sector remains robust. With the commencement of various infrastructure projects, demand for No. 46 anti-wear hydraulic oil has increased by approximately 12% compared to the previous month.
- Manufacturing demand is stable, with procurement volumes for hydraulic oil in industries such as automotive and machine tools showing a slight increase, up by approximately 5% month-on-month.

III. Cost Factors
1. Base Oil Prices
- Base oil market prices have remained stable with a slight upward trend. The price of hydroisomerized paraffinic base oil increased by approximately 200 RMB/ton, or 2.5%, compared to the previous week, strengthening cost support.
2. Additive Prices
- Additive market prices have shown minimal fluctuation. However, prices for some high-end additives have risen slightly due to supply tightness, though this has had a limited impact on the cost of No. 46 anti-wear hydraulic oil.

IV. Relevant Policies and Industry Developments
1. Environmental Policies
- With increasingly stringent national environmental requirements, some small-scale refineries have been shut down for failing to meet standards, leading to reduced supply in the base oil market and pushing prices higher.
2. Industry Exhibitions
- At recent chemical industry exhibitions, multiple hydraulic oil manufacturers showcased new products and technologies, enhancing market attention to high-end hydraulic oil products.

Analysis and Judgment
1. Reasons for Price Increases
- Cost Push: The rise in base oil prices is a primary factor driving the increase in No. 46 anti-wear hydraulic oil prices. Rising costs have prompted manufacturers to raise product selling prices.
- Increased Demand: Growth in demand from construction machinery and manufacturing sectors, particularly driven by the start of infrastructure projects, has boosted market demand for hydraulic oil. The resulting supply-demand imbalance has pushed prices up.
- Reduced Supply: Decreased import volumes and production cuts by some manufacturers have led to a reduction in market supply, further contributing to price increases.
2. Market Sentiment
- Traders and downstream users hold an optimistic outlook for the market, believing that continued demand growth and cost support will leave room for further price increases. Consequently, procurement enthusiasm remains high.

Forecast
1. Price Trends
- In the short term, prices for No. 46 anti-wear hydraulic oil are expected to continue rising. The mainstream domestic transaction price is projected to reach 6,400 to 6,700 RMB/ton next week, while international FOB prices are expected to rise to 870 to 920 USD/ton.
- In the medium term, as international logistics gradually normalize, import volumes are expected to increase. Additionally, the resumption of production by manufacturers after maintenance will boost supply, causing the rate of price increases to slow down.
2. Market Supply and Demand
- Demand: Demand from construction machinery and manufacturing sectors is expected to continue growing, although the growth rate may slow due to seasonal factors.
- Supply: As supply volumes increase, the market supply-demand imbalance will be alleviated to some extent, though the market will likely remain in a tight balance state.
3. Risk Warnings
- Attention should be paid to fluctuations in international crude oil prices, which impact base oil costs. A significant drop in crude oil prices could lead to a decline in base oil prices, thereby affecting the price of No. 46 anti-wear hydraulic oil.
- Changes in environmental policies may impact the production of small-scale refineries. If more manufacturers are shut down, base oil supply will further decrease, potentially driving prices higher.