Coke after calcination

Recent Market Dynamics Report on Calcined Petroleum CokeI. Price Trends1. Domestic Market: In recent weeks, the domestic market price of calcined petroleum coke has shown a slight upward fluctuation. In mainstream regions such as Shandong and Henan, the price of low-sulfur calcined petroleum coke ranges from 5,500 to 6,000 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 200 to 300 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, the price of medium-to-high sulfur calcined petroleum coke ranges from 4,000 to 4,500 RMB/ton, with an increase of about 150 to 200 RMB/ton.2. International Market: Influenced by global energy prices and demand, the international market price of calcined petroleum coke has generally trended steadily with upward pressure. The import price in Southeast Asia ranges from 800 to 850 USD/ton (CFR), an increase of 30 to 50 USD/ton compared to the previous month. Prices in Europe and the United States remain relatively stable, but certain regions have seen slight price adjustments due to increased transportation costs.II. Supply Situation1. Domestic Capacity: The overall production capacity of calcined petroleum coke in China remains stable. However, recent environmental protection policies have led to a decline in operating rates for some enterprises. Small-sized firms failing to meet environmental standards have been subject to production restrictions or shutdowns, resulting in a slight reduction in market supply. Nevertheless, large-scale enterprises are operating normally and can meet most of the market demand.2. Imports: The volume of imported calcined petroleum coke has increased, primarily sourced from Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Due to the relative price advantage of international markets compared to domestic ones, and to ensure the stability of raw material supply, some downstream enterprises have increased their import volumes. However, rising ocean freight costs have impacted import expenses.III. Demand Situation1. Aluminum Industry: As the primary consumer of calcined petroleum coke, the aluminum industry has seen a sustained rise in aluminum prices, leading to higher operating rates for aluminum plants and increased demand for calcined petroleum coke. In particular, the strong demand for low-sulfur calcined petroleum coke in the production of high-end aluminum products has driven up its price.2. Steel Industry: Demand from the steel industry has remained stable. Although the overall steel market has experienced significant volatility, there remains a steady procurement demand for high-quality calcined petroleum coke required in the production of certain special steels.3. Other Industries: Demand from carbon products and chemical industries has also grown, although their share of the total market remains relatively small.IV. Cost Factors1. Raw Material Prices: The primary raw material for calcined petroleum coke is petroleum coke. Recently, domestic petroleum coke prices have continued to rise due to fluctuations in crude oil prices and refinery operating rates, directly increasing the production costs of calcined petroleum coke.2. Energy Prices: The calcination process consumes substantial energy, including coal and natural gas. The recent rise in energy prices has increased production costs for calcined petroleum coke manufacturers, further compressing profit margins. Some enterprises have responded by raising product prices to pass on these cost pressures.V. Analysis and Judgment1. Short-term Outlook: Influenced by slightly reduced supply, increased demand, and rising costs, the market price of calcined petroleum coke is expected to maintain a steady upward trend. Low-sulfur calcined petroleum coke, driven by strong demand from the aluminum sector, may see relatively larger price increases.2. Medium-term Outlook: If environmental policies continue to tighten and small enterprises struggle to resume production, the market supply shortage may intensify, potentially pushing prices higher. However, attention should be paid to changes in import volumes; a significant increase in imports could exert downward pressure on domestic prices.3. Long-term Outlook: The long-term price trend of calcined petroleum coke will depend on the development of the aluminum industry and fluctuations in energy prices. If the aluminum industry continues to perform well, demand for calcined petroleum coke will remain on a steady growth path. Conversely, if energy prices stabilize or decline, it will help producers reduce costs and stabilize market prices.VI. Forecast1. Price Forecast: Over the next month, the domestic price of low-sulfur calcined petroleum coke is expected to exceed 6,000 RMB/ton, while the price of medium-to-high sulfur calcined petroleum coke may reach 4,500 to 5,000 RMB/ton. International prices are also expected to maintain a steady upward trend, with import prices in Southeast Asia potentially rising to 850–900 USD/ton (CFR).2. Supply and Demand Forecast: On the supply side, domestic production capacity is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. Import volumes may fluctuate due to cost factors, but overall supply will remain relatively tight. On the demand side, the aluminum industry will continue to dominate the market, while demand from steel and other industries will remain stable, leading to an overall growth in demand.3. Market Risk Forecast: Attention should be paid to changes in environmental policies, fluctuations in energy prices, and the development of international trade situations. Uncertainties in environmental policies may restrict production for some enterprises, rising energy prices will increase production costs, and international trade frictions may affect import volumes. These factors will all impact the calcined petroleum coke market.