Copolymer PP Granules

Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast for Copolymer Polypropylene (PP) Granules

I. Recent Price Trends
- Price Fluctuation Range: According to publicly available data, from late June to early July 2026, the mainstream price of copolymer PP granules in the East China market ranged between RMB 7,100–7,900 per metric ton. Specifically, the price was reported at RMB 7,598/ton on June 26, dropped sharply to RMB 4,296/ton on June 29 (likely reflecting a data anomaly or pricing for a specific grade), and rebounded to a mainstream range of RMB 7,430–7,800/ton on July 2.
- Futures Market Correlation: The main contract of polypropylene futures closed at RMB 7,454/ton on July 7, up 0.79% day-on-day, indicating relatively strong short-term market sentiment; however, spot prices failed to follow suit, resulting in a widening basis.

II. Market Driving Factor Analysis
1. Weakening Cost-Side Support
- Crude Oil Price Volatility: Average international crude oil prices in 2025 declined approximately 5% year-on-year versus 2024. Brent crude futures average price is projected at USD 78/barrel in Q1 2026, weakening cost support.
- Propylene Supply Oversupply: Domestic PDH (propane dehydrogenation) capacity continues expanding. In 2024, the average propylene price fell 9.3% year-on-year. Coal-based propylene production remains costlier than oil-based routes, pressuring profitability for copolymer PP plants relying on externally procured propylene.

2. Intensifying Supply-Demand Imbalance
- Elevated Supply Pressure: China’s total PP capacity reached 38.5 million tons/year in 2024, up 11.6% year-on-year. An additional 2.2 million tons/year of new capacity came online in 2025 and is being gradually commissioned. In May 2026, impact-resistant copolymer PP inventory declined 2.01% month-on-month, yet overall inventory levels remain above historical averages for the same period.
- Structural Demand Divergence:
- Weak Segments: Injection molding and pipe applications are constrained by 32 consecutive months of negative growth in real estate new construction starts, limiting demand growth.
- Resilient Segments: Automotive lightweighting (new energy vehicle output up 8.2% year-on-year) and BOPP film demand remain robust; BOPP industry operating rates averaged 67.3% in 2024.
- Policy Impact: Starting in 2025, mandatory recycled plastic usage ratios of no less than 20% apply to key sectors including express packaging and beverage bottles. The price spread between recycled PP and virgin material has widened to RMB 2,100–2,400/ton, prompting some enterprises to adjust procurement timing and strategies.

3. Profit Distribution Divergence
- Oil-Based Route: Oil-based impact-resistant copolymer PP profit surged 1,618.02% month-on-month in December 2025 but declined 63.41% year-on-year in May 2026, reflecting heightened cost volatility.
- Coal-Based Route: Coal-based route profit fell 12.54% month-on-month in December 2025 and declined further by 2.43% year-on-year in May 2026, with persistently deteriorating economics.
- Externally Sourced Propylene Route: Profit rose 23.53% month-on-month in December 2025 but plunged 53.44% year-on-year in May 2026, demonstrating high sensitivity to raw material price fluctuations.

III. Short-Term Market Outlook (July–August 2026)
1. Price Trend
- Range-Bound Trading: Copolymer PP granule prices in the East China market are expected to trade within RMB 7,100–7,900/ton. The annual average price is forecast at ~RMB 7,450/ton—down 3.5% year-on-year versus 2024.
- Seasonal Dynamics:
- July: Prices may temporarily surge toward RMB 7,800/ton due to pre-holiday stocking demand and scheduled plant maintenance.
- August: New capacity releases—including Ningxia Baofeng’s 500,000-ton/year and Ningbo Jinfu’s 800,000-ton/year facilities—combined with the conclusion of downstream restocking, will exert downward pressure, potentially pushing prices below RMB 7,400/ton.
- September: A potential short-term rebound could be triggered if crude oil prices rally unexpectedly or high-temperature-induced power rationing leads to reduced plant loadings.
- October–December: Amid traditional off-season demand and intensified supply from recycled material, prices face downside risk toward RMB 7,100/ton.

2. Key Risk Factors
- Cost Side: Crude oil price volatility, coal price policy adjustments, and propylene supply-demand shifts.
- Supply Side: Timeliness of new capacity commissioning and execution of planned plant maintenance.
- Demand Side: Effectiveness of real estate policy stimulus, resilience of automotive consumption, and changes in export order volumes.
- Policy Side: Enforcement of mandatory recycled plastic usage ratios and intensity of environmental inspections.

IV. Medium-to-Long-Term Outlook (2027–2030)
1. Slowing Capacity Expansion: With rising industry concentration and gradual elimination of inefficient capacity, China’s net PP import dependency is projected to fall to 4.2% by 2030.
2. Demand-Led Upgrading: Application share of premium copolymer PP grades (e.g., high-transparency and high-impact variants) in medical devices and automotive components will increase, driving product structure optimization.
3. Accelerated Green Transition: Breakthroughs in bio-based PP and degradable PP research and development, coupled with tightening environmental regulations, will compel enterprises to intensify technological investment.
4. Deepening Industrial Chain Integration: Upstream and downstream players will strengthen supply chain stability via equity cooperation, long-term contracts, and other mechanisms—enhancing overall risk resilience.