N-циклогексил-2-бензотиазолсульфенамид

Market Intelligence on Rubber Accelerator CBSI. Price Trends- **Domestic Market**: Over the past week, the mainstream transaction price of rubber accelerator CBS (N-cyclohexyl-2-benzothiazyl disulfide) fluctuated in the range of 28,500-30,000 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 2.3% compared to the previous week, primarily driven by rising raw material costs and tightening supply.- **International Market**: The FOB China port price is approximately 4,100-4,300 USD/ton, up 5.1% from last month, supported by recovering demand in Southeast Asia and the depreciation of the RMB.II. Supply and Demand Dynamics1. **Supply Side**: - The operating rates of major domestic producers (such as Komei Chemical and Yanggu Huatai) are maintained at 75%-80%. Some enterprises have reduced production due to environmental restrictions or equipment maintenance, leading to a decrease in market spot supply. - The price of the raw material cyclohexylamine increased by 3.8% within the week, while sulfur prices remained at high levels, passing cost pressure to downstream sectors.2. **Demand Side**: - The operating rate of the tire industry has recovered to 68%-70%. Demand for truck and bus tires (TBR) is stronger than for passenger car tires (PCR), driving increased consumption of accelerator CBS. - Export orders increased by 12% month-on-month, primarily flowing to Southeast Asia and South America, with sustained overseas restocking demand.III. Costs and Profits- Raw material costs account for approximately 75% of total costs. The collective rise in prices of cyclohexylamine, sulfur, and aniline has increased the production cost of CBS by approximately 800 RMB/ton.- The average industry gross margin has been compressed to 12%-15%, with some small and medium-sized enterprises pausing order acceptance due to cost pressures.IV. Inventory Levels- Domestic social inventory has dropped to 12,000 tons, a decrease of 18% from last month, reaching a three-year low. This has intensified the reluctance of traders to sell.- Factory inventory turnover days have shortened to 10-12 days, exacerbating the tight supply situation.V. Correlation with Related Products- The price of the substitute accelerator NS (MBTS) also rose by 3.5%. However, CBS maintains stronger rigid demand in the high-end tire sector due to its performance advantages.- Natural rubber prices are trending upward amid volatility, providing cost support for the synthetic rubber and additive markets.VI. Analysis and Assessment1. **Short-term Drivers**: - High raw material costs and supply-side contraction provide dual support. Combined with downstream tire manufacturers' essential restocking, prices are likely to rise rather than fall. - The growth in export orders alleviates domestic supply pressure, but the depreciation of the RMB may increase the cost of imported raw materials.2. **Risk Points**: - The tire industry is entering the traditional off-season (July-August), which may slow down demand growth. - Changes in the strictness of environmental policies will affect enterprise operating rates, introducing uncertainty on the supply side.VII. Price Forecast- **Next 1 Week**: CBS prices are expected to remain firm, with mainstream transaction prices potentially breaking through 30,500 RMB/ton, representing a 1%-2% increase.- **Next 1 Month**: If raw material prices remain high and there is no significant increase in supply, prices could rise to 31,500-32,000 RMB/ton. If tire factory operating rates decline, prices may correct to the 29,500-30,500 RMB/ton range.VIII. Recommendations- **Downstream Users**: It is advisable to moderately increase safety stock to mitigate the risk of further cost increases.- **Traders**: Monitor factory production schedules, carefully manage inventory turnover, and avoid holding excessive inventory at high price levels.- **Producers**: Optimize raw material procurement strategies by locking in some costs through long-term contracts, while closely monitoring environmental policy developments.