Calcium chloride

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence on Calcium Chloride

I. Price Trends
1. Domestic Market:
- Industrial-grade calcium chloride (74% content): Price range of 800-1000 RMB/ton, up 3%-5% from last month, primarily driven by rising raw material costs for hydrochloric acid and limestone.
- Food-grade calcium chloride (94% content): Price range of 1500-1800 RMB/ton, with stable prices; demand is minimally affected by seasonal fluctuations in the downstream food processing industry.

2. International Market:
- Southeast Asia CFR price: 120-140 USD/ton, up 2% from last month due to regional supply tightness caused by reduced Chinese exports.
- Europe FOB price: 150-170 USD/ton, remaining flat, with demand supported by winter de-icing agent needs.

II. Supply and Demand
1. Supply Side:
- Domestic capacity utilization: Approximately 75%, unchanged month-on-month, with some enterprises suspending production due to environmental restrictions.
- Imports: October import volume decreased by 10% month-on-month, mainly due to rising international shipping costs suppressing procurement willingness.

2. Demand Side:
- Industrial sector: Accounts for 60% of demand, primarily used for de-icing agents, desiccants, and refrigerants, with robust demand in northern regions during winter.
- Food sector: Accounts for 20% of demand, showing stable growth, mainly used as a coagulant for tofu and an additive for beverages.
- Agricultural sector: Accounts for 15% of demand, used for soil improvement and fruit tree frost protection, with weakening seasonal demand.

III. Costs and Profits
1. Raw Material Costs:
- Hydrochloric acid price: Up 8%, due to reduced supply from lower operating rates in the chlor-alkali industry.
- Limestone price: Up 5%, affected by environmental policies restricting mine extraction.

2. Production Profits:
- Gross margin for industrial-grade calcium chloride: Approximately 15%, down 2 percentage points month-on-month, due to lagged cost pressure transmission.
- Gross margin for food-grade calcium chloride: Approximately 25%, remaining stable, as high-end products carry higher added value.

IV. Relevant Policies and Events
1. Environmental Policies:
- Enhanced environmental inspections in major production areas such as Shandong and Hebei, leading to production suspensions and rectifications at some enterprises, causing short-term supply contraction.
2. Logistics Impact:
- Snowstorms in northern regions have disrupted road transportation, resulting in local inventory tightness and pushing prices upward.

V. Analysis and Judgment
1. Short-term (1-2 weeks):
- Prices are supported by costs and supply tightness; industrial-grade calcium chloride prices are expected to continue a slight increase (2%-3%), while food-grade prices will remain stable.
2. Medium-term (1-3 months):
- Prices may remain high with volatility due to the winter demand peak and environmental production restrictions, but caution is needed regarding the risk of decreased downstream acceptance of high prices.
3. Long-term (3-6 months):
- Falling raw material costs and the release of new production capacity (expected to come online in Q1 2024) may suppress prices; attention should be paid to changes in supply-demand balance.

VI. Forecast
1. Price Ranges:
- Industrial-grade calcium chloride: 850-1050 RMB/ton domestically, 125-145 USD/ton internationally.
- Food-grade calcium chloride: 1550-1850 RMB/ton domestically, 155-175 USD/ton internationally.
2. Risk Warnings:
- Extreme weather affecting logistics efficiency;
- Significant fluctuations in raw material prices;
- Adjustments to export policies (e.g., tariff changes).