Propylamine

Market Dynamics Intelligence on n-PropylamineI. Price Trends1. **Domestic Market**: Over the past week, the mainstream transaction price of n-Propylamine in the East China region fluctuated between 12,500 and 13,000 CNY/ton, representing an increase of approximately 3.2% compared to the same period last month. This rise is primarily driven by the upward trend in raw material propylene prices and regional supply tightening.2. **International Market**: The CFR China price in the Asian region remains at USD 1,750–1,800/ton, while the FOB Rotterdam price in Europe is stable at EUR 1,950–2,050/ton. Overall, international market fluctuations are smaller than those in the domestic market.II. Supply and Demand Dynamics1. **Supply Side**: - Domestic capacity utilization is approximately 78%, down 2 percentage points from last week, mainly due to maintenance shutdowns of some facilities in the Shandong region, which are expected to continue until the end of this month. - Import volumes have decreased by 15% month-on-month, primarily due to supply tensions in Europe leading to export allocation adjustments, with Asian market supplies prioritized to meet local demand.2. **Demand Side**: - The downstream pesticide industry has entered its traditional peak season, with demand for n-Propylamine increasing by 12% month-on-month. Demand for herbicide intermediates accounts for over 60% of the total. - Demand in the pharmaceutical intermediate sector remains stable, but affected by environmental policies, the operating rate of some small-scale enterprises has decreased, resulting in limited overall demand growth.III. Costs and Profits1. **Raw Material Costs**: Propylene prices rose 5.8% week-on-week to 7,200 CNY/ton, while liquid ammonia prices remained stable at 3,200 CNY/ton. Raw material costs account for over 75% of the total production cost of n-Propylamine.2. **Industry Profits**: Based on current prices, the industry average gross margin is approximately 15%, down 2 percentage points from last month, mainly due to profit margin compression caused by rising raw material costs.IV. Inventory Levels1. **Production Enterprise Inventory**: Sample enterprise inventory days have dropped to 7 days, the lowest level in the past three months, primarily due to supply tightening and concentrated restocking by downstream customers.2. **Port Inventory**: East China port inventory is approximately 2,800 tons, a 10% decrease month-on-month, mainly due to reduced import volumes and regional source allocation.V. Relevant Policies and Events1. Domestic environmental inspection teams have been stationed in major chemical provinces such as Shandong and Jiangsu, leading to production restrictions or shutdowns for rectification at some enterprises, which has a short-term impact on regional supply.2. The preliminary ruling on the EU anti-dumping investigation into n-Propylamine is expected to be announced next month. Domestic export enterprises are in a wait-and-see mode, temporarily suspending the signing of new orders.VI. Analysis and Judgment1. **Short-term Drivers**: Strong raw material propylene prices, concentrated supply-side maintenance, and peak-season demand support from the downstream pesticide industry are expected to keep prices on a firm trend.2. **Risk Points**: The intensity of environmental policy enforcement, the timing of imported cargo arrivals, and downstream acceptance of high prices.VII. Price Forecast1. **Domestic Market**: It is expected that n-Propylamine prices will fluctuate in the range of 12,800–13,300 CNY/ton next week. If propylene prices continue to rise, prices may break through 13,500 CNY/ton.2. **International Market**: Asian region prices may follow with a slight increase influenced by the domestic market. European market prices will remain at high levels due to supply tensions, but the magnitude of the increase will be limited.3. **Long-term Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, with the end of domestic facility maintenance and the commissioning of new production capacity, prices may face downward pressure. However, changes in environmental and export policies need to be closely monitored.