Dioctyl phthalate

I. Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. Price Trends
- Domestic DOP (Di-Octyl Phthalate) prices have recently exhibited an upward trend amid fluctuations. In the East China region, mainstream quotes have risen from 9,800-9,900 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to the current 10,200-10,300 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 4%. In the South China region, prices have increased from 9,700-9,800 RMB/ton to 10,100-10,200 RMB/ton, with a rise of about 4.1%.
- Internationally, DOP prices in Asia have followed the upward trend of the domestic market. The FOB Korea price has increased from 1,150-1,160 USD/ton to 1,180-1,190 USD/ton. In Europe, prices have also seen a slight increase due to energy costs and supply tightness, with the FCA Northwest Europe price rising from 1,250-1,260 EUR/ton to 1,280-1,290 EUR/ton.
2. Supply Situation
- The operating rate of domestic DOP plants has fluctuated. Some manufacturers have suspended operations due to equipment maintenance or raw material supply issues. For example, a major plant in Shandong Province halted production for one week due to insufficient n-octanol supply, reducing market supply by approximately 5%. However, new plants have also come online; for instance, a new facility in Jiangsu Province successfully commenced operations, adding approximately 50,000 tons/year of capacity, which has somewhat alleviated the supply tightness.
- On the import front, recent arrivals of shipped cargo have increased. However, overall import volumes have seen limited growth due to higher international market prices and rising transportation costs. Monthly import volumes are estimated to be around 10,000-12,000 tons.
3. Demand Situation
- Demand from the downstream PVC glove industry remains stable, with procurement volumes for DOP maintaining relative consistency, accounting for approximately 30% of total DOP demand. With the onset of winter, demand for PVC pipes has increased in certain regions, driving growth in DOP demand in the pipe sector, which accounts for about 25% of demand.
- Demand in the coatings and inks industries has also shown signs of recovery, with procurement volumes gradually increasing. These two sectors combined account for approximately 20% of demand. However, some small downstream enterprises, facing cost pressures, have limited acceptance of high-priced DOP and are purchasing cautiously.
4. Raw Material Market
- N-Octanol: As a primary raw material for DOP, n-octanol prices have continued to rise. The mainstream price in East China has increased from 8,800-8,900 RMB/ton to 9,300-9,400 RMB/ton, a rise of approximately 5.6%. The increase in raw material prices provides significant cost support for DOP.
- Phthalic Anhydride: Phthalic anhydride market prices have also risen. The price of ortho-process phthalic anhydride has increased from 7,800-7,900 RMB/ton to 8,100-8,200 RMB/ton, a rise of about 3.8%, further pushing up DOP production costs.

II. Analysis and Judgment
1. Cost Push: The rise in prices of raw materials, specifically n-octanol and phthalic anhydride, is the primary driver of recent DOP price increases. Increased costs have compelled DOP producers to raise product prices to maintain profit margins. It is expected that raw material prices will remain high in the short term, providing strong support for DOP prices.
2. Supply and Demand Dynamics: Although new plants have come online, the suspension of operations by some manufacturers has led to a reduction in supply. Meanwhile, downstream demand has recovered in multiple sectors, resulting in a slightly tight supply-demand balance, which is another factor driving DOP price increases. However, limited downstream acceptance of high-priced goods may curb excessive price increases.
3. Market Sentiment: Bullish sentiment is currently strong in the market. Traders and downstream enterprises have a certain level of restocking demand, which has increased market trading activity and further supported DOP prices.

III. Forecast
1. Price Trends: DOP market prices are expected to continue an upward trend amid fluctuations in the short term. Prices in East China are projected to break through 10,400 RMB/ton, while prices in South China may reach 10,300-10,400 RMB/ton. However, as prices continue to rise, downstream resistance may intensify, causing the rate of price increase to gradually narrow.
2. Supply: As suspended manufacturers gradually resume production and new plants stabilize their operations, market supply will increase, and the supply tightness is expected to ease.
3. Demand: Downstream industry demand is expected to remain relatively stable. However, high DOP prices may prompt some downstream enterprises to seek substitutes or reduce procurement volumes, limiting room for demand growth.
4. Long-Term Outlook: From a medium-to-long-term perspective, if raw material prices stabilize or decline, DOP prices are expected to follow suit. If raw material prices remain at high levels, DOP prices will maintain relatively high levels supported by costs, but upside potential will be constrained by demand.