Di-N-Octyl Phthalate

Dioctyl Phthalate (DOP) Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Dynamics Intelligence
(A) Price Information
1. Regional Price Disparities
- On June 22, 2026, Jinan Jiri Chemical Co., Ltd. (Jinan, Shandong Province) quoted RMB 7,100/ton for Qilu-brand DOP (99% purity); on the same day, Liaocheng Jinxinda New Materials Co., Ltd. (Liaocheng, Shandong Province) quoted RMB 6,900/ton for domestic DOP.
- Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials Co., Ltd. (Suzhou, Jiangsu Province) quoted RMB 8,150/ton for domestic DOP (99% purity); Nanjing Runsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (Nanjing, Jiangsu Province) quoted RMB 9,200/ton for Qilu plasticizer and RMB 9,150/ton for domestic DOP.
- Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical Co., Ltd. (Wuhan, Hubei Province) quoted RMB 7,500/ton for domestic DOP; Bengbu Yushun Chemical Co., Ltd. (Bengbu, Anhui Province) quoted RMB 9,200/ton for its Yushun-brand DOP (ester content ≥99%).
- On June 8, 2026, spot prices in South China stood at RMB 9,250/ton, down RMB 75/ton (?0.80%) from the previous day; up RMB 25/ton (+0.27%) week-on-week; and down RMB 775/ton (?7.73%) month-on-month.
2. Price Volatility Trend
- Overall, DOP prices across regions showed significant volatility in June 2026: Shandong Province ranged between RMB 6,900–7,900/ton; Jiangsu Province ranged between RMB 8,150–9,200/ton; Hubei Province hovered around RMB 7,500/ton; and Anhui Province remained near RMB 9,200/ton.

(B) Supply-Demand Situation
1. Supply Side
- China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of DOP. As of end-2024, there were 21 DOP producers in China. In 2024, new production capacity came online, including facilities operated by Suzhou Anli, Inner Mongolia Hairunchangsheng, and Jining Zhengxin. DOP capacity is expected to remain stable through 2026, with output projected to be flat and operating rates maintained at approximately 50–60%.
2. Demand Side
- DOP is primarily used in manufacturing flexible PVC plastic products, with demand concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong provinces. Key application sectors include PVC film, PVC artificial leather, plastic footwear, and wire & cable—accounting for over 80% of total DOP consumption. Among these, PVC film and wire & cable applications hold relatively higher shares. China’s apparent DOP consumption declined by 5.9% year-on-year in 2024.

(C) Trade Situation
1. Imports
- In 2024, China’s DOP import volume decreased by 50.0% year-on-year. General trade ranked first among import modalities, accounting for 60.1% of total imports; followed by processing trade with imported materials, which accounted for 20.8%. DOP imports continue to originate predominantly from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, China—collectively representing 84.7% of China’s total DOP imports.
2. Exports
- In 2024, China’s DOP export volume increased by 73.1% year-on-year. In 2023, major global DOP exporters included mainland China, Malaysia, and Vietnam, with mainland China accounting for approximately 25.7% of total global DOP exports.

II. Analysis and Judgment
(A) Reasons for Price Volatility
1. Regional Supply-Demand Imbalance: Divergent regional supply-demand fundamentals drive price disparities—for instance, relatively oversupplied conditions in Shandong contribute to lower local pricing, whereas robust demand in Jiangsu supports comparatively higher prices.
2. Competitive Market Dynamics: Intense competition among numerous producers prompts some enterprises to lower prices to capture market share, thereby exerting downward pressure on overall market prices.
3. Macroeconomic and Industry Trends: Global economic growth, evolving consumer preferences, and industry development trends influence DOP demand. Increasingly stringent environmental regulations restrict DOP usage in certain applications, while growing competitive pressure from alternative plasticizers dampens demand growth and weighs on pricing.

(B) Impact of Supply-Demand Relationship
1. Stable Supply but Low Operating Rates: Although DOP production capacity remains unchanged, operating rates are sustained at only 50–60%, indicating that market supply is neither abundant nor critically constrained.
2. Weak Demand Growth: The year-on-year decline in DOP apparent consumption—particularly sluggish growth in core end-use sectors—exerts downward pressure on market prices.

(C) Evolution of Trade Patterns
1. Declining Imports: The sharp reduction in DOP imports reflects expanded domestic production capacity and improved self-sufficiency, reducing reliance on foreign supply.
2. Expanding Exports: Rapid export growth demonstrates China’s competitiveness in the global DOP market and simultaneously signals relatively subdued domestic demand.

III. Forecast
(A) Price Outlook
1. Short Term: DOP prices are likely to maintain regional divergence in the near term—prices in overcapacity regions such as Shandong may remain low or experience further modest declines, whereas prices in high-demand areas like Jiangsu may stabilize or fluctuate within a narrow range.
2. Long Term: Stricter environmental regulations and intensifying competition from substitutes will constrain DOP demand growth, exerting sustained downward pressure on prices. However, significant spikes in raw material costs or severe supply disruptions could trigger temporary price rebounds.

(B) Supply-Demand Evolution
1. Supply: DOP production capacity is expected to remain stable going forward, with operating rates likely staying at 50–60%, ensuring broadly balanced supply conditions.
2. Demand: Growth in core application sectors is anticipated to remain sluggish; however, emerging applications and consumption upgrades may gradually shift demand structure.

(C) Trade Trends
1. Imports: China’s DOP import volumes are expected to remain at historically low levels, with sourcing patterns remaining relatively stable.
2. Exports: Export volumes are projected to sustain growth, although the pace may moderate depending on international demand dynamics and trade policy developments.