Propanal

Recent Market Dynamics of n-Propyl Aldehyde

1. Price Trends
- Domestic Market: The price of n-propyl aldehyde has shown a slight upward fluctuation recently. The main transaction price in the East China region is 12,000–12,500 CNY/ton, representing an increase of approximately 200–300 CNY/ton compared to last week; prices in the South China region range from 12,200–12,600 CNY/ton, with an increase of 150–250 CNY/ton.
- International Market: Prices in Asia have risen in line with the domestic market. The FOB Korea price is 1,650–1,700 USD/ton, up 20–30 USD/ton from last week. European market prices remain relatively stable but show a slight upward trend influenced by the global market atmosphere, with the FOB Rotterdam price at 1,750–1,800 USD/ton.

2. Supply Situation
- Domestic production rates are maintained at around 75%–80%. Some companies have experienced slight fluctuations in output due to equipment maintenance or raw material supply issues. For instance, a major producer reduced its weekly output by approximately 10% due to tight propylene supply.
- Imports: The volume of recently arrived cargo has increased, but the overall import proportion of domestic supply remains small, at approximately 15%–20%. Import sources are mainly from South Korea and Japan, with stable product quality securing a certain share in the high-end market.

3. Demand Situation
- Overall downstream demand is growing. The operating rates of primary downstream industries such as n-propanol and n-propyl acetate have increased. The n-propanol industry operating rate is 70%–75%, up about 5 percentage points from last month, increasing demand for n-propyl aldehyde. The n-propyl acetate industry operating rate is 65%–70%, and procurement has risen due to seasonal demand growth.
- Export Market: Export orders for n-propyl aldehyde have increased recently, primarily to Southeast Asia, with export volume up approximately 15% week-on-week, providing support to domestic market prices.

4. Cost Factors
- The price of propylene, the main raw material for n-propyl aldehyde, has continued to rise. The propylene market price in East China is 7,000–7,200 CNY/ton, up 200–300 CNY/ton from last week. This increase in raw material costs has pushed up the production costs of n-propyl aldehyde, driving its price higher.
- Energy costs, including coal and natural gas, remain relatively stable and have a minimal impact on the production cost of n-propyl aldehyde.

Analysis and Judgment

1. Reasons for Price Increase
- Cost push is a primary driver. The rise in propylene prices directly increases production costs for n-propyl aldehyde, leading companies to raise product prices to maintain profitability.
- Growing demand also supports prices. Increased operating rates in downstream industries have boosted demand for n-propyl aldehyde, while rising export orders have tightened the market supply-demand balance, further driving prices up.

2. Market Supply-Demand Balance
- Domestic n-propyl aldehyde supply currently meets demand. However, considering fluctuations in some enterprises' output and increased export orders, supply is slightly tight. If supply cannot keep pace with continued downstream demand growth, the supply-demand imbalance may intensify.

Forecast

1. Price Trend Forecast
- Short-term: Prices still have room to rise. Propylene prices are expected to remain high, providing strong cost support. With sustained downstream demand growth and stable export orders, the market supply-demand relationship will remain tight. Prices are expected to rise to 12,500–13,000 CNY/ton (East China region).
- Medium-to-long term: If propylene prices fall or downstream demand growth slows, n-propyl aldehyde prices may correct. However, given the current overall supply-demand structure and industry trends, the downward correction is expected to be limited, with prices fluctuating in the 11,500–12,500 CNY/ton range (East China region).

2. Supply-Demand Forecast
- Supply: As equipment maintenance ends and raw material supply issues are resolved, domestic n-propyl aldehyde output is expected to gradually increase. Import volumes are not expected to grow significantly, keeping overall supply relatively stable.
- Demand: Downstream demand will continue to grow, particularly for n-propanol and n-propyl acetate industries, sustaining increased demand for n-propyl aldehyde. The export market will also maintain certain growth. The overall market supply-demand relationship is expected to remain in a tight balance.