Hydrogen chloride in ethanol

HCl Ethanol Product Market Dynamics Intelligence (Last 1 Month)

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I. Market Quotation Dynamics

| Time | Data Source | Quotation Status |
|------|----------|----------|
| 2026-11-09 | SunSirs | Published baseline price dynamics; specific values not publicly disclosed |
| 2026-11-10 | SunSirs | Published baseline price dynamics (covering both HCl ethanol and HCl ethanol solution varieties) |
| 2026-11-11 | SunSirs | Published baseline price dynamics, continuing the previous day's monitoring |
| October 2026 | ChemicalBook | 30-day high: 44,000 RMB/ton; 30-day low: 15,000 RMB/ton; Current price: 44,000 RMB/ton; Increase: 193.33% |

**Historical Reference Prices (Nov 2025 – Feb 2026)**:

| Period | 1st-5th | 6th-10th | 11th-15th | 16th-20th | 21st-25th | 26th-31st |
|------|-------|--------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| Nov 2025 | 44,000 | 44,000 | 44,000 | 44,000 | 44,000 | 44,000 |
| Dec 2025 | 44,000 | 44,000 | 44,000 | 44,000 | 29,500 | 22,250 |
| Jan 2026 | 15,000 | 26,600 | 44,000 | 44,000 | — | — |
| Feb 2026 | 36,750 | 44,000 | — | — | 29,500 | 44,000 |

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II. Supply-Side Intelligence

1. **Capacity Landscape**: HCl ethanol is a coupled product of chlor-alkali and organic chemical industries, primarily produced by reacting by-product hydrogen chloride from chlor-alkali enterprises with ethanol. The Shandong region is the main production area (e.g., Shandong Hongyang Chemical).
2. **Raw Material Cost Support**: Fluctuations in upstream liquid chlorine and ethanol prices directly impact the cost of HCl ethanol. Recently, the operating rate of the chlor-alkali industry has remained at high levels, ensuring sufficient supply of by-product hydrogen chloride. However, ethanol prices remain uncertain due to dual influences from grain-based and petrochemical routes.
3. **Tightening Environmental Constraints**: Policies on the resource utilization of \"three wastes\" in chemical parks and the strengthening of full-lifecycle supervision of hazardous chemicals are leading to the elimination of some small-scale, outdated capacities. Industry concentration is expected to increase.

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III. Demand-Side Intelligence

1. **Downstream Applications**: HCl ethanol is mainly used in organic synthesis intermediates, pharmaceutical intermediates, food additives (hydrolyzed vegetable protein), and metal cleaning.
2. **Seasonal Demand**: Q4 is a traditional peak season for chemical demand, with procurement volumes in the pharmaceutical and food additive sectors showing a recovery.
3. **Expansion into Semiconductor Sector**: The trend of upgrading high-purity hydrogen chloride to electronic grade (6N) is evident. However, HCl ethanol, in its solution form, primarily serves the traditional chemical and pharmaceutical markets.

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IV. Price Trend Analysis

| Dimension | Judgment |
|------|------|
| Short-term (1-2 weeks) | SunSirs has published quotation dynamics for three consecutive days (11/9-11/11), indicating active market trading and high-frequency price monitoring. Prices are expected to remain in a high-level range with fluctuations in the short term. |
| Medium-term (1-3 months) | Prices rebounded from a low of 15,000 RMB/ton at the beginning of 2026 to 44,000 RMB/ton, an increase of 193%. Currently in the high range for the year, pressure for a pullback is increasing. |
| Key Support | Raw material ethanol costs, stability of chlor-alkali by-product hydrogen chloride supply, and environmental production restrictions. |
| Key Pressure | Seasonal decline in downstream demand, release of new production capacity, and competition from substitute products. |

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V. Analytical Judgment and Forecast

**Judgment**:
- The current price of HCl ethanol is in the high range for 2026 (44,000 RMB/ton), with a significant increase compared to the low point at the beginning of the year. The market has fully digested the previous cost push.
- High-frequency quotation publications by SunSirs over the last month indicate high market attention and active trading, but there are a lack of driving factors for a significant breakthrough.
- The industry is transitioning from a \"traditional chemical intermediate\" to an \"efficient carrier of chlorine resources.\" Long-term structural benefits exist, but the short term is characterized by fluctuations.

**Forecast**:
| Time Period | Price Prediction | Probability |
|--------|----------|------|
| Late Nov 2026 | Fluctuation in the range of 42,000-45,000 RMB/ton | 60% |
| Dec 2026 | Slight pullback to 40,000-43,000 RMB/ton | 55% |
| Q1 2027 | Depending on changes in ethanol and liquid chlorine costs, expected range of 38,000-44,000 RMB/ton | 50% |

**Risk Warnings**:
- If upstream liquid chlorine prices drop significantly or ethanol supply exceeds demand, prices may rapidly fall below 35,000 RMB/ton.
- If environmental policies are further tightened, leading to the suspension of some production capacities, prices may break through 45,000 RMB/ton.