2-Methyl-1-butanol

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence

1. Price Trends
- Domestic Market: Over the past week, the price of 2-methyl-1-butanol in the domestic market has shown a slight upward fluctuation. The mainstream transaction price in the East China region rose from 8,500 RMB/ton to 8,700 RMB/ton, an increase of approximately 2.35%; the price in the South China region increased from 8,600 RMB/ton to 8,800 RMB/ton, an increase of approximately 2.33%.
- International Market: The price of 2-methyl-1-butanol in the Asian region remains relatively stable, with the FOB Korea price maintained at 1,150–1,180 USD/ton; European market prices have slightly increased, with the FOB Rotterdam price rising from 1,200 USD/ton to 1,220 USD/ton.

2. Supply Situation
- Domestic production enterprises maintain a relatively stable overall operating rate of around 75%. Some enterprises have slightly reduced output due to regular equipment maintenance, but no significant supply shortage has emerged overall.
- On the import side, the volume of recently arrived ship cargo has increased, primarily sourced from South Korea and Japan, supplementing part of the domestic market demand.

3. Demand Situation
- Downstream industry demand shows differentiation. Influenced by the recovery of the real estate industry, demand for 2-methyl-1-butanol in the coatings industry has increased, with procurement volumes rising by approximately 10% compared to the previous week; demand in the solvent industry remains stable, with procurement mainly on an as-needed basis; demand in the fragrance industry has slightly decreased due to the off-season in production.

4. Cost Aspects
- The price of the main raw material, propylene, has shown minimal fluctuations recently, remaining at 7,000–7,200 RMB/ton, providing relatively stable cost support for 2-methyl-1-butanol.
- In terms of energy prices, coal prices have slightly increased, exerting some pressure on production enterprises' energy costs, but this has not yet been significantly transmitted to the price of 2-methyl-1-butanol.

Analysis and Judgment

1. Reasons for Price Increase
- The reduction in output due to maintenance at some domestic production enterprises, combined with limited overall supply growth despite increased arrivals of imported ship cargo, has led to a slightly tight market supply-demand relationship. Coupled with increased demand from the coatings industry, this has driven price increases.
- The price increase in the European international market has also provided a certain boost to market sentiment in the domestic market.

2. Impact of Demand Differentiation
- The increase in demand from the coatings industry provides support for prices; however, stable demand in the solvent industry and decreased demand in the fragrance industry have limited the upside potential, resulting in only slight upward price fluctuations.

3. Limited Impact of Costs
- With stable propylene prices and energy cost increases not yet significantly transmitted, cost factors have a relatively small impact on the price of 2-methyl-1-butanol.

Forecast

1. Short Term (1–2 Weeks)
- Prices are expected to maintain a slight upward fluctuation. As maintenance at production enterprises concludes, supply will gradually recover. However, with sustained demand from the coatings industry, the supply-demand relationship will remain relatively balanced, with prices likely fluctuating in the range of 8,700–8,900 RMB/ton.

2. Medium Term (1–2 Months)
- If the real estate industry continues to recover, leading to further increased demand from the coatings industry and some improvement in the solvent industry, while supply remains unchanged, prices are expected to continue rising to 9,000–9,200 RMB/ton. However, if demand in the fragrance industry fails to improve and large volumes of imported ship cargo arrive, price increases will be suppressed, potentially keeping prices in the range of 8,800–9,000 RMB/ton.

3. Long Term (3–6 Months)
- Attention should be paid to the macroeconomic situation and the overall development trends of downstream industries. If the macroeconomy improves and downstream industry demand grows comprehensively, the price of 2-methyl-1-butanol is expected to break through 9,200 RMB/ton; conversely, if downward pressure on the economy increases and downstream demand shrinks, prices may fall below 8,500 RMB/ton.