iodoxyl

# D40 (National Standard 40 Blending Agent) Market Dynamics Intelligence Report

**Reporting Period: Mid-October 2026 – November 12, 2026**

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## I. Price Trend Overview

| Date | Quoting Entity | Price (CNY/ton) | Remarks |
|------|----------------|-----------------|---------|
| Nov 3 | Jinan Angxin Chemical | 9,800 | Jinan, Shandong |
| Nov 3 | Shandong Hongyang Chemical | 8,000 | Shandong |
| Nov 3 | Shandong Fushengyong Trading | 7,200 | Jinan, Shandong |
| Nov 4 | Jinan Angxin Chemical | 9,800 | Jinan, Shandong |
| Nov 4 | Shandong Jinshengrun Chemical | 8,600 | Jinan, Shandong |
| Nov 4 | Shandong Fushengyong Trading | 7,200 | Jinan, Shandong |
| Nov 10 | Domestic (Entity unspecified) | 8,600 | — |
| Nov 10 | Shandong Fushengyong Trading | 7,200 | Jinan, Shandong |
| Nov 12 | SunSirs Benchmark Price | 8,900 | Official Guidance Price |

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## II. Core Data Profile

- **Annual High**: 8,900 CNY/ton (Benchmark price on Nov 12, representing the annual peak)
- **Annual Low**: 7,500 CNY/ton
- **Annual Median**: 8,200 CNY/ton
- **Annual Average**: 8,180.78 CNY/ton
- **Distance to Peak**: 0 (Current price is at the annual peak)
- **Distance to Bottom**: 1,400 CNY/ton
- **Daily Change**: 0.00% (Nov 12 price remains flat compared to the start of the month)
- **Warning Signals**: 2-year overvaluation, 3-year overvaluation

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## III. Market Dynamics Analysis

1. **Significant Price Differentiation and Widening Regional Spreads**

From the quotes between Nov 3 and Nov 10, a substantial price spread of **7,200–9,800 CNY/ton** (a range of 2,600 CNY/ton) was observed for D40 in the Shandong region. Jinan Angxin Chemical consistently quoted at the high end of 9,800 CNY/ton, while Shandong Fushengyong Trading remained stable at the low end of 7,200 CNY/ton. This reflects:

- **Notable Brand Premiums and Channel Differences**: Varying pricing strategies, customer tiers, and logistics costs among different traders lead to significant price disparities.
- **High Weight of Premium/Discount Factors (C-value)**: Logistics costs, brand price gaps, and regional price differences carry substantial weight in D40 pricing.

2. **Stabilization at High Levels with Emerging Concerns**

The SunSirs benchmark price on Nov 12 was fixed at 8,900 CNY/ton, remaining flat compared to the start of the month. While this appears stable on the surface, it conceals three underlying signals:

- **Benchmark Price Has Reached the Annual Peak**: With the distance to the peak at zero, there is no room for further upward movement, indicating the price is at a \"ceiling\" level.
- **Warning Lines Triggered**: The signals of \"2-year overvaluation\" and \"3-year overvaluation\" indicate that D40 prices have remained in a high range for consecutive years, accumulating correction risks.
- **Actual Transaction Prices (7,200–8,600 CNY/ton) Are Generally Below the Benchmark**: This suggests that actual market trading enthusiasm is lower than the optimistic expectations implied by the benchmark price, raising concerns of \"high prices but low volume.\"

3. **Supply-Side Landscape**

Quoting entities are concentrated in the Jinan, Shandong region (Jinan Angxin, Shandong Fushengyong, Shandong Jinshengrun, Shandong Hongyang), indicating high geographic concentration of production. As Shandong is the core production area for D40 blending agents, its capacity release and inventory levels will directly influence national price trends.

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## IV. Trend Assessment and Forecast

| Dimension | Assessment |
|-----------|------------|
| **Short-term (1–2 weeks)** | The benchmark price of 8,900 CNY/ton is likely to remain flat, but actual transaction prices may continue to fluctuate within the 7,200–8,600 CNY/ton range; high quotes are unlikely to be sustained. |
| **Medium-term (1–3 months)** | Given the dual warnings of \"2-year and 3-year overvaluation\" and the fact that the annual average is only 8,180 CNY/ton, **correction pressure is significant**. Prices are expected to regress toward the median range of 8,000–8,200 CNY/ton. |
| **Risk Alert** | If concentrated supply releases occur in the main Shandong production area or downstream demand weakens, prices could rapidly decline toward the annual low of 7,500 CNY/ton. |

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## V. Operational Recommendations

1. **Buyers**: It is not advisable to stockpile large quantities at current high prices. It is recommended to procure based on actual needs and build inventory in batches, waiting for prices to regress toward the average before replenishing stock.
2. **Traders**: High quotes (9,800 CNY/ton) should be approached with caution due to the risk of \"high prices but low volume.\" Consider offering discounts to facilitate transactions and accelerate capital turnover.
3. **Key Indicators to Monitor**: Closely track changes in the daily change rate of the SunSirs benchmark price, operating rates in the Shandong production area, and downstream blending demand data. A negative daily change rate will serve as a clear signal of downward price movement.