1-Propanol

Propanol Market Dynamics Intelligence and Analysis Forecast

I. Price Trend
- Benchmark Price: As of July 7, 2026, the Shanghai E-Commerce Network’s (Shengyishe) benchmark price for n-propanol stood at RMB 7,400 per metric ton, down 2.63% from the beginning-of-month level of RMB 7,600 per metric ton on July 1, representing a weekly decline of approximately RMB 200 per metric ton.
- Enterprise Quotations:
- Shandong Yihe Fine Chemical Co., Ltd.: Domestic n-propanol quoted at RMB 7,600/ton;
- Shandong Qiancheng New Materials Co., Ltd. (LX Chemical): n-Propanol quoted at RMB 7,650/ton;
- Shandong Hanyue Chemical Co., Ltd.: Domestic n-propanol quoted at RMB 7,600/ton; LX Chemical n-propanol quoted at RMB 7,800/ton;
- Liaocheng Yuanze Chemical Products Co., Ltd.: Domestic n-propanol quoted at RMB 8,500/ton.
- Historical Volatility: From late June to early July 2026, n-propanol prices exhibited a downward trend. On July 2, the benchmark price declined by 2.63% compared to RMB 7,650/ton on June 22; the mean deviation shifted from positive widening to negative widening.

II. Supply-Demand Relationship
- Supply Side:
- Domestic n-propanol production facilities are operating normally overall, with ample spot supply in the market. Major suppliers include LX Chemical, Sinopec Sanyi Chemical, and Juhua Group, indicating relatively high concentration of production capacity.
- Price reductions by large manufacturers in Shandong have dampened overall market sentiment, and certain suppliers face pressure from excess supply.
- Demand Side:
- Downstream applications include propyl acetate (66%), pharmaceutical intermediates (12%), agrochemical intermediates (10%), and solvents (9%).
- Demand for propyl acetate—driven by sectors such as lithium-ion battery electrolytes for new energy vehicles and eco-friendly solvents—has yet to show clear signs of recovery; market trading activity remains subdued.

III. Market Drivers
- Cost Factors: Upstream raw materials—propylene and propane—are subject to fluctuations in oil and natural gas markets; however, no significant cost-driven price increases have occurred recently.
- Policy Impact: Since the Ministry of Commerce imposed anti-dumping duties on U.S.-origin n-propanol in 2020, import dependency has gradually decreased, and domestic capacity substitution has been notably effective.
- Industry Developments: Planned commissioning of new propyl acetate capacities—including Wujiang Chemical’s 100,000-ton plant and Zhuhai Qianxin’s 120,000-ton facility in 2025—may provide long-term demand support for n-propanol; however, the current oversupplied market situation remains unchanged in the short term.

IV. Technical Indicator Signals
- Moving Average System: On July 2, the 10-day moving average crossed below the 20-day moving average, signaling downside risk; the moving average deviation was -RMB 27.50/ton on July 4 and further widened negatively to -RMB 72.50/ton on July 6, reflecting short-term weakness.
- Price Positioning: The current price resides at a medium-to-high level within the one-year cycle (maximum: RMB 8,500/ton; minimum: RMB 5,100/ton; median: RMB 6,800/ton), with a top-level deviation of -RMB 1,100/ton.

V. Analytical Assessment
- Short-Term Outlook: Amid an oversupplied market, n-propanol market conditions remain weak; prices are expected to continue consolidating within a narrow range, with the benchmark price forecasted to fluctuate between RMB 7,300–7,600/ton throughout July.
- Key Variables:
- Whether downstream procurement volumes recover—especially in the propyl acetate sector;
- Whether unexpected production cuts or rapid inventory drawdowns occur on the supply side;
- Whether upstream propylene prices surge significantly due to summer demand seasonality or geopolitical factors.

VI. Forward Outlook
- 3–6-Month Projection: Should new propyl acetate capacities come online as scheduled, n-propanol demand is expected to gradually improve starting in Q4 2026, potentially pushing prices upward into the RMB 7,800–8,200/ton range.
- Risk Factors:
- Global economic slowdown leading to reduced demand for chemical products;
- Unexpected overexpansion of domestic n-propanol capacity triggering supply oversaturation;
- Adjustment of anti-dumping policies resulting in a rebound in imports.