Ammonium Persulfate

# Ammonium Persulfate (APS) Commodity Market Dynamics Intelligence

---

## I. Recent Market Price Trends

| Indicator | Data/Situation |
|-----------|----------------|
| Mainstream Quotation Range | 12,000–16,500 CNY/ton (Industrial Grade, 98% purity) |
| Recent Price Trend | Volatile and weak, down approximately 200–500 CNY/ton compared to the previous month |
| Regional Price Spread | East China is slightly higher than North and South China by 300–800 CNY/ton |
| Transaction Activity | Moderate to low; downstream procurement is primarily for rigid demand, with weak inventory stocking intent |

---

## II. Upstream Raw Material Cost Side

| Raw Material | Recent Trends | Impact on APS Cost |
|--------------|---------------|--------------------|
| Ammonium Sulfate | Prices remain at low levels (approx. 600–800 CNY/ton), with ample supply | Weak cost support |
| Sulfuric Acid | Acid prices in East China have slightly retreated, remaining at mid-to-low levels for the year | Reduced cost-side pressure |
| Liquid Ammonia/Synthetic Ammonia | Limited price fluctuations, running weakly due to the off-season for nitrogen fertilizers | Insufficient indirect cost support |
| Electricity Cost | Electrolysis processes are affected by industrial electricity rates, which are currently stable | No significant change on the cost side |

**Comprehensive Assessment**: The raw material end is generally weak, causing the cost support for APS production to shift downward, providing room for price declines.

---

## III. Supply-Side Dynamics

- **Production Capacity**: Major domestic producers are concentrated in Hebei, Shandong, and Jiangsu. Total capacity exceeds 200,000 tons/year. Operating rates are maintained in the 60%–75% range, with some enterprises voluntarily reducing loads due to insufficient orders.
- **New Capacity**: No significant new units have been commissioned in the past six months; the industry supply landscape remains stable.
- **Environmental Impact**: Environmental inspections have tightened in some regions, leading to intermittent shutdowns of individual small and medium enterprises, but the impact on total supply is limited.
- **Export Situation**: Overseas order demand is average. Inquiries from Southeast Asian and Indian markets have decreased, and export volumes have slightly declined year-on-year.

---

## IV. Demand-Side Dynamics

| Downstream Sector | Demand Status |
|-------------------|---------------|
| **Polymerization (Emulsion Polymerization, Acrylics, etc.)** | Demand is stable but weak; recovery in the real estate and coatings industries has fallen short of expectations, resulting in limited pull-through |
| **PCB Electronic Chemicals (Etchants)** | Consumer electronics demand is sluggish; PCB industry operating rates are low, putting pressure on demand |
| **Oil Extraction (Fracturing Additives)** | Oil prices are volatile; the pace of domestic shale oil development has slowed, keeping demand stable but with no incremental growth |
| **Organic Synthesis/Bleaching** | Traditional demand is stable but small in volume, providing limited overall pull |
| **New Energy (Lithium Batteries, Solar)** | Small-scale application in battery material processing; still in the cultivation phase with no large-scale volume yet |

---

## V. Industry Policy and Macro Environment

- The chemical industry as a whole is in a destocking cycle, with market confidence remaining cautious.
- Safety production supervision continues, with stricter requirements for the storage and transportation of highly oxidizing chemicals, increasing costs in the circulation process.
- There are no major changes in export tax rebates or trade policies, but fluctuations in international shipping costs affect export profits.

---

## VI. Analysis and Judgment

1. **Short-term (1–3 months)**: The dual-weakness pattern of supply and demand will persist. With insufficient raw material cost support, prices are expected to remain in a low-level volatile range, with the mainstream market operating between 11,500–16,000 CNY/ton. Downside space is limited, but rebound momentum is insufficient.
2. **Medium-term (3–6 months)**: If downstream demand in coatings and electronics improves marginally, combined with production cuts during maintenance seasons at some enterprises, supply and demand may tighten slightly, potentially leading to a mild price recovery of 200–500 CNY/ton.
3. **Core Contradiction**: The demand side lacks clear incremental drivers, capacity utilization is low, and the industry is in a passive destocking phase characterized by \"production based on sales.\"

---

## VII. Forecast and Recommendations

| Time Horizon | Price Forecast | Operational Recommendations |
|--------------|----------------|------------------------------|
| 1 Month | Weak volatility, 12,000–15,500 CNY/ton | Downstream users can replenish inventory modestly at low prices; traders should control inventory levels |
| 3 Months | Stabilization or slight recovery, 12,500–16,000 CNY/ton | Monitor downstream operating rate data; if demand warms up, inventory can be increased appropriately |
| 6 Months | Mild recovery, 13,000–17,000 CNY/ton | Production enterprises should focus on cost lines; loss-making enterprises may reduce production to support prices |

**Risk Warnings**:
- Significant fluctuations in upstream sulfuric acid and liquid ammonia prices will directly disturb the cost end.
- Concentrated inventory replenishment by downstream users or breakthroughs in new application areas (such as the scaling of semiconductor-grade demand) could trigger short-term price spikes.
- Stricter environmental policies leading to regional supply contraction require continuous tracking.