Ammonium persulfate

Recent Market Dynamics of Ammonium Persulfate

I. Price Trends
- Domestic Market: In recent times, the domestic market price of ammonium persulfate has shown a stable-to-strong trend. In major producing regions such as Shandong and Jiangsu, ex-factory prices have increased by approximately 3% to 5% compared to last month, with premium products experiencing slightly higher increases. The primary drivers are rising raw material costs and reduced supply due to plant maintenance by some manufacturers.
- International Market: Prices in the international market have also risen. In Asia, Southeast Asian market prices have followed the lead of Chinese export prices, increasing by 2% to 4%. In Europe and America, prices have seen relatively larger increases of 5% to 7% due to tight supply.

II. Supply Situation
- Domestic Supply: Some domestic ammonium persulfate producers have recently undergone plant maintenance. For instance, a large enterprise in Henan shut down for about 10 days, leading to a reduction in overall market supply. However, other enterprises have maintained normal production, with operating rates staying between 70% and 80%.
- International Supply: Globally, major producing countries such as the United States and Japan have seen some enterprises reduce output or shut down due to stricter environmental requirements and increased production costs, resulting in a tight global supply of ammonium persulfate.

III. Demand Situation
- Domestic Demand: Downstream industry demand has performed well. In the electronics sector, driven by 5G infrastructure development, demand for ammonium persulfate as an etchant continues to grow. In the paper industry, the usage of ammonium persulfate as a bleaching agent has also increased. Additionally, demand in the water treatment sector remains stable.
- International Demand: In the international market, the electronics industry in Southeast Asia is developing rapidly, leading to strong demand for ammonium persulfate. In Europe and America, driven by environmental policies, demand in the water treatment sector is gradually increasing.

IV. Cost Aspects
- Raw Material Costs: The prices of main raw materials for ammonium persulfate, sulfuric acid and ammonia water, have both risen recently. Sulfuric acid prices have increased significantly due to rising upstream sulfur prices and environmental production restrictions. Ammonia water prices have also gone up due to tight supply. The rise in raw material costs provides strong support for ammonium persulfate prices.

V. Trade Situation
- Export Situation: As a major exporting country for ammonium persulfate, China has seen an increase in export volume recently. Driven by strong international demand and relatively advantageous domestic prices, export orders have increased, with main destinations being Southeast Asia, Europe, and America.
- Import Situation: Domestic import volume is relatively low, with high-end products mainly imported from countries like Japan and South Korea to meet the needs of specific domestic industries. Recent import prices have also risen due to the impact of increasing international market prices.

Analysis and Judgment
- Short-term Outlook: Influenced by rising raw material costs, reduced supply, and strong demand, the market price of ammonium persulfate will continue to maintain a stable-to-strong trend. The ongoing maintenance of domestic enterprises has not yet ended, making it difficult to alleviate the tight supply situation in the short term. Meanwhile, continuous improvement in downstream industry demand will provide strong support for prices.
- Long-term Outlook: As domestic enterprises complete their plant maintenance, supply will gradually increase. However, growing international market demand and persistently high raw material costs will to some extent limit the downward space for prices. It is expected that the market price of ammonium persulfate will remain at a relatively high level in the long term, with relatively small fluctuations.

Forecast
- Price Forecast: Over the next month, the domestic market price of ammonium persulfate is expected to rise by an additional 2% to 3% from current levels; international market price increases may range from 3% to 5%. Subsequently, as supply increases, the rate of price increase will gradually narrow, but the overall level will remain high.
- Supply and Demand Forecast: On the supply side, production will gradually recover after domestic enterprises complete their maintenance, but the tight international supply situation will remain unchanged in the short term. On the demand side, downstream industry demand will continue to grow, especially the sustained strong demand from the electronics and water treatment sectors.
- Trade Forecast: China's export volume will continue to grow, and export prices will rise in line with international market prices. Regarding imports, the demand for high-end products will persist, but import volumes may fluctuate due to price factors.