2-Butanol

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence1. **Price Trends**- The market price of sec-butanol in China has recently shown narrow fluctuations. The mainstream transaction price in the East China region is in the range of 8,500 - 8,800 RMB/ton. Prices in the South China region are slightly higher, at around 8,700 - 9,000 RMB/ton. Prices in the North China region are relatively lower, at 8,300 - 8,600 RMB/ton. Compared with last week, the overall price fluctuation range is 100 - 200 RMB/ton.- In the international market, the price of sec-butanol in Asia is influenced by regional supply and demand. The price in Southeast Asia is stable at 1,100 - 1,150 USD/ton (CFR). Prices in Europe and the US are relatively stable, with the price in the US at 1,200 - 1,250 USD/ton (FOB).2. **Supply Situation**- The operating rate of domestic sec-butanol production enterprises is maintained at around 70% - 75%. Some enterprises have reduced output due to equipment maintenance or raw material supply issues. For example, a large production enterprise in Shandong has reduced its output by approximately 15% recently due to a tight supply of n-butene, which has had a certain impact on the supply in the local and surrounding markets.- In terms of imports, the recent import volume of sec-butanol is relatively stable, at around 2,000 - 3,000 tons per month. The main sources of imports are Southeast Asian countries, and imported goods have supplemented part of the domestic market demand.3. **Demand Situation**- Demand in downstream industries is showing differentiation. The solvent industry is one of the main consumption areas for sec-butanol. Recently, the operating rate in the solvent industry has increased, leading to increased demand for sec-butanol. In particular, with the arrival of the peak season, procurement volumes in fields such as coatings and inks have risen.- Demand in the chemical intermediate field is relatively stable, with some enterprises purchasing as needed to maintain normal production. However, some small enterprises, affected by capital and orders, have low procurement enthusiasm, limiting the growth in demand for sec-butanol.4. **Cost Aspects**- The price of the raw material n-butene has recently risen slightly, with an increase of 50 - 100 RMB/ton. The tight supply of n-butene is the main reason for the price increase, which to some extent increases the production cost of sec-butanol and provides certain support for the price of sec-butanol.- In terms of energy costs, prices of energy sources such as coal and natural gas have fluctuated little, having a minor impact on the production cost of sec-butanol.Analysis and Judgment1. **Supply Side**: Although the operating rate of domestic production enterprises has fluctuated, the overall supply remains relatively stable. The supplementation from imported goods also makes the market supply relatively sufficient. However, the reduced output of some enterprises may cause local supply tightness.2. **Demand Side**: The growth in demand from the solvent industry is currently the main supporting factor for the sec-butanol market. However, demand growth in the chemical intermediate field is limited, and the low procurement enthusiasm of small enterprises means that the overall demand growth may not be significant.3. **Cost Side**: The rise in the price of the raw material n-butene has increased the production cost of sec-butanol. Enterprises may transfer the cost pressure by raising product prices, but considering the market demand situation, the price increase may be limited.Forecast1. **Price Aspect**: In the short term, the market price of sec-butanol will continue to maintain a state of narrow fluctuations. The price fluctuation ranges in East China, South China, and North China may be 8,400 - 8,900 RMB/ton, 8,600 - 9,100 RMB/ton, and 8,200 - 8,700 RMB/ton, respectively. If the price of the raw material n-butene continues to rise or demand from the solvent industry further increases, prices may rise slightly, but the increase is expected not to exceed 300 RMB/ton.2. **Supply Aspect**: The operating rate of domestic production enterprises is expected to remain stable, and import volumes will not change significantly. The overall market supply will maintain the current level. However, attention should be paid to the impact of equipment maintenance and raw material supply situations of some enterprises on local supply.3. **Demand Aspect**: Demand from the solvent industry is expected to continue to grow, driving an overall increase in sec-butanol demand. However, demand growth in the chemical intermediate field still faces certain pressure. It is expected that within the next month, the market demand for sec-butanol will increase by approximately 5% - 8%.