3-Pentanone

3-Pentanone Market Intelligence Report (July 8, 2026)

I. Recent Price Trends
| Date | Main Quotation in Shandong Region (CNY/ton) | Representative Enterprise | Specification | Remarks |
|------------|---------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|-----------|----------------------------------------|
| 2026-07-06 | 25,000 | Shandong Hongyang Chemical Co., Ltd. | 98% | Senfeida brand; valid for 3 days |
| 2026-07-06 | 23,000 | Shandong Zhihengda Import & Export Co., Ltd. | 98% | Domestic origin; valid for 3 days |
| 2026-06-30 | 22,500 | Shandong Yihuo Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. | 98% | Senfeida brand; valid for 1 day |
| 2026-06-19 | 22,500 | Shandong Yihuo Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. | 98% | Senfeida brand |

Price Volatility Characteristics:
– Quotations in the Shandong region fluctuated within the range of CNY 22,500–25,000 per ton. On July 6, prices rose by CNY 2,500/ton (11.1% increase) compared to June 30, primarily driven by a price hike from Shandong Hongyang Chemical.
– The price gap between Senfeida-branded and domestic-origin products widened to CNY 2,000/ton (CNY 25,000 vs. CNY 23,000), indicating a pronounced brand premium effect.

II. Regional Market Comparison
| Province | Latest Quotation (CNY/ton) | Date | Remarks |
|----------|----------------------------|------------|----------------------------------------|
| Shandong | 22,500–25,000 | 2026-07-06 | Primary production base; price divergence observed |
| Shanghai | 23,000 | 2026-06-18 | Quoted by Shanghai Hanyang Chemical Co., Ltd. |

Regional Discrepancy Analysis:
– As the main production base, Shandong’s prices are generally lower than those in Shanghai. However, following Shandong Hongyang’s price adjustment on July 6, the price gap narrowed to CNY 2,000/ton (CNY 25,000 vs. CNY 23,000).
– Logistics costs from Shandong to Shanghai (approximately CNY 500–800/ton) do not fully account for this price differential, suggesting that the Shanghai market incorporates brand or channel-related premiums.

III. Supply-Demand Structure Analysis
1. Supply Side:
– Key domestic suppliers include Shandong Hongyang, Shandong Yihuo, and Shandong Zhihengda, indicating a relatively high degree of production concentration.
– Shandong Yihuo reduced its quotation validity period to one day (as of June 30), reflecting suppliers’ heightened caution regarding short-term price volatility.
– Senfeida-branded supply (from Shandong Yihuo and Shandong Hongyang) commands higher pricing than domestic-origin alternatives, reinforcing brand-based market barriers.

2. Demand Side:
– Downstream applications are concentrated in agrochemicals (e.g., pendimethalin) and pharmaceuticals (e.g., oseltamivir/Tamiflu intermediates), exhibiting relatively inelastic demand.
– In December 2024, Shandong Yihuo’s quotation reached CNY 34,800/ton. Current prices represent a 35.3% decline from that historical peak but reflect an 11.1% rebound from the April 2026 low point (CNY 22,500/ton), signaling emerging demand recovery.

IV. Industry-Related Dynamics
1. Raw Material Costs:
– The predominant synthesis route for 3-pentanone is the acid-acid process (widely adopted by BASF and Eastman). Fluctuations in isoprene prices—its key raw material—directly impact production costs.
– Recent upward volatility in crude oil prices has increased isoprene costs, potentially providing further support to 3-pentanone pricing.

2. Substitutes:
– Methyl isopropyl ketone (MIPK), a functionally similar solvent, relies heavily on imports (approx. 1,500 tons/year). During periods of tight domestic 3-pentanone supply, substitution demand may rise.
– However, due to 3-pentanone’s strong application specificity in agrochemical intermediates, substitution effects remain limited.

V. Price Forecast and Risk Alerts
1. Short-Term Outlook (1–2 weeks):
– Shandong Hongyang’s recent price increase may trigger follow-on hikes across the industry; Shandong’s mainstream quotations are expected to test the CNY 25,500–26,000/ton range.
– The price differential between Senfeida-branded and domestic-origin products may widen further to CNY 2,500/ton.

2. Medium-Term Outlook (1–3 months):
– With the agrochemical sector entering its peak production season, rising downstream demand could push prices above CNY 26,000/ton.
– Caution is warranted regarding potential low-price promotional strategies by suppliers such as Shandong Yihuo, which may dampen overall market sentiment.

3. Risk Alerts:
– Significant volatility in isoprene prices could undermine cost-support logic.
– Trade frictions (e.g., adjustments in import tariffs) may disrupt regional supply-demand equilibrium.
– Stricter environmental regulations could prompt capacity reductions among smaller suppliers, exacerbating supply tightness.