demulsifier

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence Report on Demulsifiers

I. Price Trends
1. Domestic Market:
- East China: Demulsifier prices remain stable in the range of 12,000–13,500 CNY/ton. Some high-end products have seen a slight increase of 500 CNY/ton due to rising raw material costs.
- North China: Mainstream prices are maintained at 11,500–12,800 CNY/ton. Prices for low-end products have dropped by 200 CNY/ton due to increased supply.
- South China: Driven by demand, prices have slightly increased to 12,500–14,000 CNY/ton, representing an increase of approximately 3%.

2. International Market:
- Southeast Asia: CFR prices are stable at USD 1,800–2,000/ton, with steady demand and sufficient supply.
- Europe and the US: FOB prices are maintained at USD 2,200–2,500/ton. Some suppliers have raised their quotes by 5% due to energy cost impacts.

II. Supply and Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side:
- Domestic capacity utilization is approximately 75%, remaining flat month-on-month. Supply has tightened slightly as some enterprises have suspended operations for maintenance due to environmental inspections.
- Import volumes have decreased by 10% month-on-month, primarily due to rising international shipping costs and export restrictions from certain countries.

2. Demand Side:
- Demand from the oil extraction industry remains stable, accounting for 60% of total demand. Increased winter crude oil extraction activities have boosted demand.
- Demand from the chemical industry has increased by 5% month-on-month, mainly driven by rising demand for wastewater treatment in refining and chemical enterprises.
- Export demand is weak, decreasing by 8% month-on-month, primarily due to intensified international market competition.

III. Cost Dynamics
1. Raw Material Prices:
- Ethylene oxide prices are stable at 7,200–7,500 CNY/ton, remaining flat month-on-month with sufficient supply.
- Polyether prices have slightly increased to 10,500–11,500 CNY/ton, an increase of approximately 2%, due to rising propylene prices.

2. Energy Costs:
- Coal prices have increased by 5% month-on-month, while natural gas prices remain stable. Energy costs have a limited impact on demulsifier production.

IV. Policy and Environmental Dynamics
1. Domestic environmental policies are becoming stricter. Some enterprises have suspended operations for rectification due to non-compliance with emission standards, affecting the supply side to some extent.
2. International demand for eco-friendly demulsifiers is increasing, enhancing the export potential of high-end products.

V. Analysis and Judgment
1. Short-term (1–2 weeks):
- Price Trends: Domestic market prices will remain largely stable, with minor fluctuations in local areas due to supply and demand differences. International market prices will remain at high levels, supported by energy costs.
- Supply and Demand Relationship: Supply has tightened slightly due to environmental inspections, while demand remains stable, resulting in a balanced supply and demand situation.

2. Medium-term (1–3 months):
- Price Trends: Domestic prices may rise slightly due to raw material costs and demand pull. International market price increases will be limited due to intensified competition.
- Supply and Demand Relationship: Demand will increase with rising oil extraction activities, while supply will gradually recover, easing supply and demand contradictions.

VI. Forecasts
1. Price Forecasts:
- Domestic Market: Prices are expected to remain in the range of 11,500–14,000 CNY/ton. High-end products may exceed 14,000 CNY/ton due to cost push.
- International Market: CFR prices are expected to remain stable at USD 1,800–2,050/ton. FOB prices may rise to USD 2,300–2,600/ton due to energy cost impacts.

2. Supply and Demand Forecasts:
- Supply Side: Domestic capacity utilization is expected to gradually recover to 80%. Import volumes may increase slightly due to international market fluctuations.
- Demand Side: Demand from the oil extraction industry will continue to grow, while demand from the chemical industry will remain stable. Export demand will remain weak due to international competitive pressures.

3. Risk Warnings:
- Raw Material Price Volatility Risk: Prices for ethylene oxide and polyether are influenced by international markets and may fluctuate significantly.
- Environmental Policy Risk: Ongoing domestic environmental inspections may lead to production suspensions for some enterprises.
- International Market Competition Risk: Low-cost products from Southeast Asia and the Middle East may impact the domestic market.