Coal quality granular carbon

1. **Price Trends** - The price range for coal-based granular charcoal in major domestic markets is 8,500–11,000 RMB/ton, representing a 3%–5% increase compared to last month, with some high-end products seeing an 8% rise. - Export market prices (e.g., Southeast Asia, Middle East) have been raised to USD 1,300–1,500/ton (FOB), driven by increased shipping costs and a recovery in international demand. 2. **Supply and Demand Changes** - **Supply Side**: In major production regions such as Shanxi and Ningxia, tightened environmental policies have led to production cuts of 30%–50% for some enterprises, reducing market supply by approximately 15%. - **Demand Side**: - Domestic: Demand in the water treatment sector increased by 10% (due to the summer water usage peak), while demand in the chemical industry (e.g., pharmaceutical intermediates, solvent recovery) remains stable. - Export: Countries such as India and Vietnam have seen a 20% year-on-year increase in demand for coal-based granular charcoal due to upgrades in power infrastructure. 3. **Cost Drivers** - The price of raw material anthracite coal has risen by 8%–10% month-on-month. Combined with increased transportation costs (due to higher diesel prices), this has pushed the production cost of coal-based granular charcoal up by approximately 500–800 RMB/ton. 4. **Inventory Levels** - Production enterprise inventory turnover days have shortened to 10–15 days (normal level: 20–25 days). Distributor inventories are low, and the willingness to restock is strengthening. Analysis and Judgment 1. **Short-term Support Factors** - Continued supply-side production restrictions, coupled with high raw material costs, limit the downside room for prices. - Concentrated delivery of export orders supports firm domestic market prices. 2. **Potential Risks** - Downstream industries show divergent acceptance of high prices; water treatment enterprises may switch to alternatives (e.g., wood-based activated carbon), suppressing demand growth. - Policy uncertainty: If environmental production restrictions are eased, a recovery in supply could lead to a price correction. Forecast 1. **Price Trends** - Next 1 month: Prices are expected to remain high with fluctuations, in the mainstream range of 8,800–11,200 RMB/ton. Export prices may break through USD 1,550/ton. - Within 3 months: If raw material costs fall or supply increases, prices may correct by 5%–8%. Conversely, if demand remains strong, the price increase could expand to 10%. 2. **Market Opportunities** - High-end products (e.g., iodine value ≥1,000 mg/g) have strong bargaining power due to high technical barriers and are recommended for priority attention. - For export markets, focus on infrastructure project demand in Southeast Asia and arrange long-term contract orders in advance. 3. **Risk Warnings** - Closely monitor fluctuations in raw coal prices and adjustments to environmental policies to guard against risks of lagged cost transmission or sudden supply increases.