석유에테르

Petroleum Ether Market Dynamics Intelligence

I. Price Trends
1. Domestic Market:
- East China: The mainstream transaction price for petroleum ether (60-90°C) ranges from 6,200 to 6,500 RMB/ton, up approximately 2.3% week-on-week, primarily driven by fluctuations in upstream crude oil prices and regional supply tightness.
- South China: Prices range from 6,300 to 6,600 RMB/ton, up 1.8% month-on-month, due to short-term supply tightness caused by delayed port arrivals.
- North China: Prices remain stable at 6,100 to 6,400 RMB/ton, with some enterprises offering slight discounts due to inventory pressure.

2. International Market:
- Asia: FOB Korea petroleum ether prices are quoted at USD 820-850/ton, up 3.5% from the beginning of the month, influenced by Middle East geopolitical risks and USD exchange rate fluctuations.
- Europe: CIF Rotterdam prices are stable at USD 900-930/ton, with steady demand but prices supported by energy costs.

II. Supply and Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side:
- Domestic capacity utilization is approximately 75%, up 2 percentage points from the previous month, but actual production growth is limited due to production halts for maintenance and environmental inspections at some refineries.
- Imports decreased by 12% month-on-month, mainly because Southeast Asian suppliers prioritized the European and American markets, leading to tight supply in Asia.

2. Demand Side:
- The solvent industry accounts for 60% of demand, with procurement volumes up 8% month-on-month due to the peak season in the coatings and ink industries.
- Demand in the pharmaceutical intermediate industry remains stable, but growth has slowed to 3% as some enterprises switch to substitutes due to cost pressures.
- Export markets are active, with cumulative exports from January to August up 15% year-on-year, primarily shipped to India and Southeast Asia.

III. Costs and Profits
1. Raw Material Costs:
- Crude oil prices (WTI) remain in the range of USD 85-90/barrel, with naphtha prices rising in tandem, increasing petroleum ether costs by approximately 200 RMB/ton.
- High natural gas prices are increasing production cost pressures for some gas-based enterprises.

2. Industry Profits:
- Gross profit margins for enterprises in East China are approximately 12%, down 1 percentage point month-on-month, as rising raw material costs could not be fully passed on to downstream customers.
- Gross profit margins in South China remain around 15% due to larger price increases, but high prices are suppressing some demand.

IV. Relevant Policies and Events
1. Domestic Policies:
- The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has strengthened VOCs emission controls, requiring rectification for some solvent enterprises, which may temporarily suppress demand.
- Expectations of VAT rate adjustments are rising; if implemented, this would reduce enterprise tax burdens, but the timeline remains unclear.

2. International Events:
- Escalating Middle East geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium for crude oil supply, supporting petroleum ether prices.
- Weakening expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes and a decline in the USD index are favorable for commodity prices.

V. Analysis and Forecast
1. Short-term (1-2 weeks):
- Prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with mainstream prices in East China likely to range between 6,300 and 6,600 RMB/ton, supported by tight supply and crude oil costs.
- Demand will continue to be driven by the peak season, but high prices may suppress some non-rigid procurement.

2. Medium-term (1-3 months):
- As domestic refinery maintenance ends, supply is expected to increase, potentially causing prices to fall slightly to 6,000-6,300 RMB/ton.
- Active export markets will buffer domestic supply pressure, limiting the downside potential for prices.

3. Long-term (3-6 months):
- If crude oil prices remain high, strong cost support will push the petroleum ether price center upward to 6,500-6,800 RMB/ton.
- Attention should be paid to the enforcement of environmental policies and the impact of substitute price fluctuations (e.g., ethanol, acetone) on demand.

VI. Risk Warnings
1. Escalating geopolitical conflicts could lead to crude oil supply disruptions, driving prices sharply higher.
2. Stricter domestic environmental policies could lead to an unexpected decline in solvent industry demand.
3. A rebound in the USD index could suppress commodity prices.