Petroleum Ether

Petroleum Ether Recent Commodity Market Dynamics Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Dynamics Intelligence
(A) Price Data
1. Benchmark Price: According to B2B Chemical Network (Shengyishe) data, the benchmark price of petroleum ether on April 6, 2026, stood at RMB 8,916.67 per metric ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.
2. Enterprise Quotations:
- On April 2, 2026: Hubei Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 8,800.00/ton for its domestically produced petroleum ether (GB Standard Petroleum Ether III); Jiangsu Nanjing Runsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 8,800.00/ton for its Shandong-sourced petroleum ether (purity 99.9%, boiling range 60–90°C); Jiangsu Changzhou Aozun Composite New Materials Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 4,800.00/ton for its domestically produced petroleum ether (purity 99.9%); Shandong Qingdao Shengze Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 6,500.00/ton for its Shandong-sourced petroleum ether (purity 99.9%, boiling range 90–120°C); and Shandong Jinan Zesheng Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 5,800.00/ton for its domestically produced petroleum ether (purity 99.9%).
- On April 1, 2026: Trader quotations indicated notable regional and product-specification variations. For example, Changzhou Aozun Composite New Materials Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 4,800.00/ton for its domestically produced petroleum ether (purity 99.9%) in Xiangfan City, Hubei Province; Jinan Zesheng Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 5,800.00/ton for its domestically produced petroleum ether (purity 99.9%) in Jinan City, Shandong Province; Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 8,800.00/ton for its GB Standard Petroleum Ether III in Jiading District, Shanghai; and Nanjing Runsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 8,800.00/ton for its domestically produced petroleum ether in Jiangsu Province.

(B) Related Market Dynamics
1. Crude Oil Market:
- Geopolitical factors exerted significant influence. On April 6, 2026, the U.S. and Iran issued statements regarding ending hostilities. Former U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. would conclude military operations against Iran within two to three weeks and potentially reach a settlement beforehand. This announcement substantially alleviated market concerns over potential Middle Eastern supply disruptions, triggering panic selling in crude oil futures. On that day, WTI crude oil fell by 2.22% to USD 109.061 per barrel; Brent crude oil declined by 1.22% to USD 107.698 per barrel. However, earlier reports indicated that another Iranian petrochemical facility had been struck by U.S. and Israeli forces. Ongoing Middle Eastern conflict has already cost Saudi Arabia over USD 10 billion, underscoring persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
- Regarding fundamental supply-demand dynamics: expectations of tightened Middle Eastern supply have eased; U.S. shale oil production remains stable. As the world’s largest crude oil importer, China’s demand growth has slowed—March’s manufacturing PMI data suggests limited economic recovery momentum. Refinery operating rates in China remain steady: major state-owned refineries operate at 78–82%, while independent (“local”) refineries run at 45–55%, indicating insufficient demand-side support.
2. Etherified Butane (ETBE Feedstock / C4) Market: The average annual price of etherified butane in 2026 is projected at RMB 4,300 per ton, down RMB 382 year-on-year. Supply is expected to increase while demand declines, gradually narrowing the supply-demand gap. Prices are likely to trend sideways with mild weakness overall, exhibiting an “M-shaped” pattern across the year—with August potentially representing the annual peak and December the annual trough.

II. Analysis and Assessment
(A) Reasons for Price Stability
The recent stability of petroleum ether’s benchmark price—unchanged since the start of the month—and the relatively narrow variation among enterprise quotations stem primarily from a temporary equilibrium between bullish and bearish market forces. On one hand, the rapid unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums led to a sharp decline in crude oil prices, weakening cost support for petroleum ether. On the other hand, no significant structural changes have occurred in petroleum ether’s underlying supply-demand fundamentals—both supply and demand remain comparatively stable—thus sustaining short-term price stability.
(B) Key Price-Determining Factors
1. Cost Factor: Crude oil constitutes a major input cost for petroleum ether production; fluctuations in crude oil prices directly affect petroleum ether’s production costs. Recent geopolitical developments have triggered substantial crude oil price volatility. Should crude oil prices continue falling, petroleum ether’s production costs will decline, exerting downward pressure on its price. Conversely, renewed geopolitical tensions leading to a crude oil price rebound would provide upward support to petroleum ether pricing.
2. Supply-Demand Factor: On the supply side, China’s refining capacity remains generally oversupplied. Etherified butane—a refinery co-product—is expected to maintain stable or slightly increasing output. Additionally, multiple new ethylene cracker and MTO (methanol-to-olefins) facilities are planned, which will boost co-produced olefinic C4 supply and gradually ease the current tightness in olefinic C4 supply—potentially influencing petroleum ether supply. On the demand side, Chinese gasoline consumption has entered a plateau phase—or may soon peak—as rapid penetration of new-energy vehicles increasingly displaces conventional gasoline. This substitution effect is progressively suppressing future demand for alkylation feedstocks and MTBE, thereby dampening demand for etherified butane and, consequently, petroleum ether.

III. Forecast
(A) Short-Term Forecast (1–2 Weeks)
Given that geopolitical risks have not been fully resolved, crude oil prices may continue fluctuating. If geopolitical tensions further ease and crude oil prices continue declining, reduced production costs combined with lackluster demand improvement could exert downward pressure on petroleum ether prices—though any decline is likely to be modest, as underlying supply-demand fundamentals remain broadly balanced. Alternatively, should geopolitical tensions re-escalate and crude oil prices rebound, petroleum ether prices may follow suit—but the magnitude of such upside movement will depend on market expectations and actual impact of geopolitical developments.
(B) Medium-Term Forecast (1–3 Months)
With the onset of the traditional summer gasoline demand season, petroleum ether demand may receive a modest seasonal boost in August. Assuming supply does not surge significantly, petroleum ether prices could stage a short-term rally, possibly reaching an annual relative high. However, entering Q4, gasoline demand typically enters its off-season; concurrently, crude oil prices are expected to trend weaker during this period—leading petroleum ether prices to gradually decline, potentially bottoming out in December—the projected annual low.
(C) Long-Term Forecast (1–2 Years)
Over the medium-to-long term, the crude oil market is expected to undergo a cyclical transition—from initial softness toward stabilization and eventual recovery—underpinned by OPEC+ production cuts providing a floor and broader macroeconomic recovery stimulating demand. This dynamic will likewise drive petroleum ether prices to first consolidate and then rebound modestly after a period of subdued adjustment. Domestic petroleum ether prices are projected to bottom out and subsequently experience mild, narrow-range upward correction during 2027–2028.