P-Anisidine

# p-Anisidine Commodity Market Dynamics Intelligence (Mid-October to November 12, 2026)

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## I. Recent Price Trends Overview

### 1.1 Enterprise Quotation Details (November 9–10)

| Date | Delivery Location | Manufacturer | Specification | Quotation (CNY/ton) |
|------|-------------------|--------------|---------------|---------------------|
| Nov 10 | Shandong Province | Zhongsu Supply Chain Management (Shandong) Co., Ltd. | 99% | 18,800 |
| Nov 10 | Jiangsu Province/Suzhou | Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials Co., Ltd. | 99% | 18,800 |
| Nov 10 | Shandong Province | Shandong Jiaming Chemical Co., Ltd. | 99% | 22,000 |
| Nov 9 | Shandong Province | Shanghai Muqiangsen International Trading Co., Ltd. | 99% | 2,000 |
| Nov 9 | Shandong Province | Zhongsu Supply Chain Management (Shandong) Co., Ltd. | 99% | 18,800 |
| Nov 9 | Jiangsu Province/Suzhou | Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials Co., Ltd. | 99% | 18,800 |
| Nov 9 | Shandong Province | Shandong Jiaming Chemical Co., Ltd. | 99% | 22,000 |

### 1.2 SunSirs Benchmark Price Dynamics

From October 17 to November 10, SunSirs continuously released daily commodity price dynamics for p-anisidine. The benchmark price is generated based on big data and the SunSirs price model, covering two modes: the settlement price for a specified date and the average settlement price for a specified period. The adjustment coefficient K accounts for credit period costs, while the premium/discount C covers logistics, brand, and regional price differentials.

### 1.3 Price Anomaly Alert

It is particularly noted that in Q1 2026, the domestic mainstream industrial-grade ex-factory price (tax-inclusive) was **86,000–92,500 CNY/ton**, and the landed cost for imported goods was **98,200–105,600 CNY/ton**. However, enterprise quotations in early November dropped sharply to the range of 18,800–22,000 CNY/ton, with Shanghai Muqiangsen quoting only 2,000 CNY/ton. This is suspected to be due to data anomalies, special promotions, or non-standard product quotations, representing an order-of-magnitude discrepancy from the Q1 benchmark price. Caution is advised when verifying these figures.

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## II. Market Supply and Demand & Industry Landscape

### 2.1 Global Market Size

In 2024, the global p-anisidine market sales reached **USD 124 million**, projected to increase to **USD 157 million** by 2031, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of **3.5%**. The Chinese market is changing rapidly and is a significant global consumer and production base.

### 2.2 Increasing Industry Concentration

Starting from January 2026, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment implemented the *Dynamic Filing System for Production Licenses of Key Organic Pollutants*, accelerating the exit of small and medium-sized capacities. The **top five enterprises now hold a combined market share of 73.4%**, significantly enhancing their bargaining power. The price center has shifted up by approximately **4.2%** compared to Q4 2025.

### 2.3 Raw Material and Cost Pressures

- **Raw Materials**: The p-nitroanisole and iron powder reduction process accounts for 89% of domestic capacity. In Q1 2026, the average price of p-nitroanisole was 53,800 CNY/ton, up 6.7% year-on-year, with tight supply of upstream nitrochlorobenzene.
- **Energy**: The unit price of industrial steam in North China increased to 285 CNY/ton, pushing up comprehensive energy consumption costs by approximately 1,100 CNY/ton.
- **Compliance**: The *GB/T 42912-2026 Standard for Residual Limits of Benzene-series Chemical Products* requires aniline impurities to be ≤50 ppm, increasing equipment depreciation and amortization by approximately 750 CNY/ton.

### 2.4 Product Grading and Price Differentials

| Grade | Purity Standard | Ex-factory Price Range (CNY/ton) |
|-------|-----------------|----------------------------------|
| Industrial Grade | ≥98.0% (HPLC) | 86,000–92,500 |
| Pharmaceutical Grade | ≥99.5% (USP-NF 44) | 128,000–136,000 |
| Electronic Grade | ≥99.99% (Metal ions <10 ppb) | 245,000–268,000 |

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## III. Analysis and Judgment

### 3.1 Short-term Price Judgment: Oscillating Downward Amid Data Distortion

There is a significant gap between early November quotations (18,800–22,000 CNY/ton) and the Q1 benchmark price (86,000–92,500 CNY/ton). Combined with the continuous release of daily price dynamics by SunSirs, the current market exhibits a **polarized** trend:

- **Mainstream Regular Channels**: Supported by rigid factors such as environmental production restrictions, rising raw material costs, and compliance costs, prices are likely to remain in the high range above 80,000 CNY/ton.
- **Non-standard/Leftover/Anomalous Data Channels**: Some quotations may reflect inventory clearance, special orders, or platform data entry errors, and do not have universal reference value.

Shandong Jiaming Chemical consistently quotes 22,000 CNY/ton, forming a price differential of approximately 17% with Zhongsu Supply Chain and Jiangsu Xinsu at 18,800 CNY/ton, reflecting regional and brand premium differences.

### 3.2 Medium-term Trend: Cost-driven Firmness

Three rigid cost factors—rising raw materials (+6.7%), increased energy costs (+1,100 CNY/ton), and upgraded compliance requirements (+750 CNY/ton)—jointly construct a price floor. Under the oligopolistic structure with 73.4% industry concentration, the pricing power of leading enterprises is further strengthened, making a **significant price plunge highly unlikely**.

### 3.3 Significant Regional Differentiation

- **East China**: Cluster effects create a price trough, with a Q1 average price of 87,300 CNY/ton.
- **North China**: Environmental production restrictions push up quotes by 5.1%, reaching 91,800 CNY/ton.
- **Southwest China**: The green hydrogenation route has a cost advantage of approximately 3,200 CNY/ton, but its share of sellable volume is less than 6%.

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## IV. Forecasts and Recommendations

| Dimension | Judgment |
|-----------|----------|
| **Short-term (1–2 weeks)** | Prices will oscillate narrowly in the high range. Quotations at the 18,800 CNY/ton level require verification of authenticity. Mainstream transaction prices are expected to remain at 85,000–93,000 CNY/ton. |
| **Medium-term (1–3 months)** | Tight supply of raw material nitrochlorobenzene and continuous release of environmental compliance costs are expected to shift the price center up by 2%–4%. |
| **Long-term (2027–2031)** | The global market will grow steadily with a CAGR of 3.5%. Optimization of Chinese production capacity and the promotion of green processes will reshape the competitive landscape. |

**Operational Recommendations**:
1. Buyers should use the SunSirs benchmark price as an anchor, comprehensively calculating landed costs by incorporating the K value (credit period) and C value (logistics/regional factors).
2. Be vigilant of abnormally low quotations; always verify product grade, purity test reports, and supply qualifications.
3. Monitor the subsequent enforcement intensity of the *Dynamic Filing System for Production Licenses of Key Organic Pollutants*, as the pace of small and medium capacity exit will directly impact supply elasticity.