Ethyl propionate

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence for Ethyl Propionate

I. Price Trends
1. Domestic Market:
- East China: Mainstream transaction prices range from 12,000 to 12,500 RMB/ton, an increase of 200-300 RMB/ton compared to last week, representing a rise of approximately 1.6% to 2.5%.
- South China: Prices range from 12,200 to 12,700 RMB/ton, up by 250-350 RMB/ton from the previous week, representing an increase of approximately 2.0% to 2.9%.
- North China: Quoted prices range from 11,800 to 12,300 RMB/ton, up by 150-250 RMB/ton within the week, representing a rise of approximately 1.3% to 2.1%.
2. International Market:
- Asia: FOB Korea prices are between 1,650 and 1,700 USD/ton, an increase of 30-50 USD/ton from the previous period, representing a rise of approximately 1.8% to 3.0%.
- Europe: FOB Rotterdam prices are between 1,750 and 1,800 EUR/ton, up by 20-40 EUR/ton within the week, representing an increase of approximately 1.1% to 2.3%.

II. Supply and Demand Situation
1. Supply Side:
- Production operations of some domestic ethyl propionate manufacturers have remained stable recently, with operating rates maintained at 75% to 80%, largely unchanged from last week. However, some enterprises have reduced production loads due to tight raw material supplies, leading to a slight decrease in overall market supply.
- On the import front, the volume of recently arrived cargo has been limited, and some shipments have experienced delayed customs clearance due to inspection and quarantine issues, further exacerbating the tight market supply situation.
2. Demand Side:
- Coatings Industry: With the arrival of the spring renovation peak season, demand for coatings has increased, correspondingly boosting procurement volumes for ethyl propionate. Order volumes from some major coating enterprises have increased by 10% to 15% compared to last week, driving demand for ethyl propionate.
- Fragrance Industry: Overall demand in the fragrance market remains stable. As an important fragrance intermediate, ethyl propionate demand shows a steady growth trend. Some fragrance manufacturers have increased their procurement of ethyl propionate to meet order requirements.

III. Cost Factors
1. Raw Material Propionic Acid: Propionic acid market prices have continued to rise recently. Mainstream prices in East China range from 8,500 to 9,000 RMB/ton, up by 300-400 RMB/ton from last week. The increase in propionic acid prices has directly raised production costs for ethyl propionate, providing strong support for its price.
2. Raw Material Ethanol: Ethanol market prices have also risen. Industrial-grade ethanol prices in Shandong range from 7,000 to 7,200 RMB/ton, up by 100-200 RMB/ton within the week. The rise in ethanol prices has further pushed up production costs for ethyl propionate.

IV. Related Policies and Industry Trends
1. Environmental protection policies are becoming increasingly stringent, imposing stricter requirements on production emissions from chemical enterprises. Some ethyl propionate manufacturers face production halts for rectification or production restrictions due to non-compliance with environmental standards, affecting market supply.
2. News of new capacity plans has emerged within the industry, but it is expected that effective supply will not be formed in the short term, resulting in limited impact on the current market.

Analysis and Judgment
1. Supply: Due to reduced production loads by some enterprises and delayed customs clearance of imported goods, market supply has decreased, and the tight supply situation is unlikely to ease in the short term.
2. Demand: Growing demand from the coatings and fragrance industries provides strong support for the ethyl propionate market, with the demand side performing well overall.
3. Cost: Rising prices of raw materials propionic acid and ethanol have increased cost pressures, pushing ethyl propionate prices upward.
4. Policy: Stricter environmental policies have limited production at some enterprises, further exacerbating supply tightness.

Forecast
1. Price Trends: Ethyl propionate prices are expected to continue rising in the short term. Domestic market prices are projected to break through 12,500 to 13,000 RMB/ton, with international market prices also following the upward trend.
2. Supply-Demand Relationship: The tight supply situation will persist for a period. As some enterprises resume normal production and imported goods are gradually cleared in the later stage, supply pressure may ease somewhat, but growing demand will continue to support the market.
3. Market Risks: Attention should be paid to factors affecting the market, such as raw material price fluctuations, changes in environmental policies, and the progress of new capacity deployment. Significant drops in raw material prices or early deployment of new capacity could exert downward pressure on ethyl propionate prices.