3-Methyl-2-butenal

Market Intelligence on Isopropenyl Acetaldehyde

I. Price Trends
1. Domestic Market: Over the past week, the mainstream transaction price of isopropenyl acetaldehyde in the domestic market fluctuated within the range of RMB 18,500–19,200/ton, representing an average increase of approximately 2.3% compared to the previous week. In some regions, prices exceeded RMB 19,500/ton due to supply tightness.
2. International Market: The FOB price at major Chinese ports remained at USD 2,450–2,550/ton, marking a month-on-month increase of 1.8%. Buyer inquiry activity has increased, driven by the recovery of demand in Asia and supply chain disruptions in Europe.

II. Supply and Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side:
- Major domestic producers (such as Zhejiang NHU Co., Ltd. and Shandong Jinling Chemical) maintained operating rates between 85% and 90%. However, some units experienced short-term production cuts due to fluctuations in propylene supply.
- In Europe, two isopropenyl acetaldehyde plants announced a 20% production reduction due to high natural gas costs, widening the global supply gap.
2. Demand Side:
- Demand for downstream fragrance intermediates (such as citral and citronellal) has increased significantly. The operating rate in the domestic fragrance industry has risen to 78%, up 5 percentage points year-on-year.
- Demand in the pesticide intermediate sector remains stable, but export orders increased by 12% month-on-month as overseas inventory levels were depleted.

III. Cost and Profitability
1. Raw Material Costs: Affected by crude oil fluctuations, the average price of propylene rose by 3.2% to RMB 7,200/ton over the past week, directly increasing the production cost of isopropenyl acetaldehyde by approximately RMB 400/ton.
2. Industry Profitability: Based on current prices, the average gross profit margin in the industry is maintained at 18%–20%, down by 2 percentage points from the previous month. However, leading enterprises have secured profit margins through long-term contract orders.

IV. Inventory and Logistics
1. Inventory Levels: Domestic port inventory has decreased to 12,000 tons, the lowest level in the past three months. Factory inventory turnover days have shortened to 7–10 days.
2. Logistics Impact: Typhoon weather in the Yangtze River Delta region caused delays in loading and unloading at some ports, but this did not have a substantial impact on overall supply.

V. Analysis and Outlook
1. Short-Term Drivers: The combination of reduced European supply and the peak domestic demand season is expected to keep prices firm. However, fluctuations in propylene prices may limit the magnitude of the increase.
2. Medium-Term Risks: Attention should be paid to the downstream fragrance industry's willingness to accept high raw material prices. If the growth rate of orders slows down, prices may face downward pressure.
3. Policy Impact: Stricter environmental inspections in China may limit the release of capacity from smaller producers, further consolidating the market position of leading enterprises.

VI. Price Forecast
1. Domestic Market: Prices are expected to range between RMB 19,000–19,800/ton over the next two weeks. If propylene prices exceed RMB 7,500/ton, there is a possibility that isopropenyl acetaldehyde prices could surge to RMB 20,000/ton.
2. International Market: FOB prices are expected to follow the upward trend, reaching USD 2,550–2,650/ton. However, caution is needed regarding the downside risk associated with the seasonal decline in European demand.
3. Key Milestones: The concentrated inventory replenishment by the domestic fragrance industry in mid-October may mark a phase-wise peak in prices, followed by a period of consolidation and volatility.