Vinyl acetate

Recent Market Intelligence Report on Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM)\
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I. Price Dynamics (July 24–28, 2026)\
| Region/Company | Specification | Quoted Price (RMB/ton) | Price Trend |\
|------------------|--------------------------|----------------|--------------|\
| Shandong Junfeng New Materials | Industrial Grade, ≥99.9% purity | 6,000 | Stable |\
| Shandong Beilu Hengsheng Chemical | Industrial Grade, ≥99.9% purity | 7,000 | Stable |\
| Shandong Yeyang Chemical | First Grade, 99.9% purity | 5,000 | Stable |\
| Shandong Qiangsen Chemical | First Grade, 99.9% purity | 5,000 | Stable |\
| Shandong Hongyang Chemical | National Standard, 99% purity | 7,300 | Stable |\
| Shandong Aite Chemical | 99% purity, 180 kg/drum | 6,500 | Stable |\
| Shandong Xima Supply Chain | Premium Grade, 99.9% purity | 5,200 | Stable |\
| Nantong Zhonghe Chemical | Premium Grade, 99.9% purity | 5,300 | Stable |\
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**Regional Price Spread**:\
- The price spread between the highest quotation in Shandong Province (Shandong Hongyang Chemical at RMB 7,300/ton) and the lowest (Shandong Yeyang Chemical / Shandong Qiangsen Chemical at RMB 5,000/ton) reaches RMB 2,300/ton—primarily attributable to differences in production processes (ethylene-based vs. calcium carbide-based) and product purity.\
- Nantong Zhonghe Chemical’s quotation in Jiangsu Province (RMB 5,300/ton) is below the average price in Shandong, reflecting logistics cost advantages in the East China region.\
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II. Market Driving Factor Analysis\
1. **Optimization of Production Capacity Structure**\
- The share of ethylene-based production capacity has increased from 25% in 2021 to nearly 50% in 2026, making it the dominant process route. Ethylene-based VAM offers high purity (≥99.9%), meeting stringent requirements for premium downstream applications such as EVA and VAE emulsions—thereby driving price differentiation.\
- Calcium carbide-based capacity has contracted under mounting environmental regulation pressure; however, some producers—including Shandong Yeyang Chemical—have maintained competitiveness through technological upgrades, sustaining low-price positioning.\
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2. **Diverging Downstream Demand**\
- **Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA)**: Accounts for ~45% of total VAM demand; annual output remains stable at 750,000–850,000 tons, providing baseline demand support.\
- **EVA Resin**: Demand share surged from 40%). Inter-regional logistics cost differentials may exacerbate price volatility.\
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3. **Raw Material Price Linkage**\
- Ethylene accounts for ~60% and acetic acid ~20% of VAM production costs. Fluctuations in international crude oil prices (affecting ethylene costs) or tightening supply of calcium carbide (for calcium carbide-based routes) may transmit upward pressure to final VAM pricing.\
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IV. Outlook (Q3–Q4 2026)\
1. **Price Range Forecast**\
- Mainstream quotations are expected to remain within RMB 5,000–7,500/ton. Prices for ethylene-based VAM—supported by robust premium-demand—are likely to center around RMB 6,500–7,500/ton; calcium carbide-based VAM faces cost-driven floor support near RMB 5,000/ton.\
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2. **Demand Structure Evolution**\
- EVA demand share is projected to surpass 30%, becoming the primary price driver. Expansion of photovoltaic-grade EVA capacity—including new facilities by Lianhong New Materials and Sinopec Sierbang—will boost demand for high-purity VAM, accelerating industry transition toward differentiated competition.\
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3. **Capacity Ramp-Up Schedule**\
- Guangxi Huayi’s 300,000-ton/year plant, commissioned in H1 2026, has already contributed incremental supply. In H2 2026, attention should focus on progress of planned projects in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. Any delays in new capacity commissioning could provide short-term price support.\
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4. **Policy Impact**\
- Under China’s “dual carbon” (carbon peak & carbon neutrality) goals, calcium carbide-based production may face stricter energy consumption controls, accelerating industry consolidation. Ethylene-based producers must monitor cost pass-through effects from the national carbon trading market.