Azelaic acid

Market Intelligence on Azelaic AcidI. Price Trends1. **International Market**: Recently, the international market price of azelaic acid has shown a slight upward trend with fluctuations, increasing by approximately 2%-3%. The main driving factors are the temporary supply tightening caused by maintenance of some production units in Europe, coupled with increased demand from the downstream cosmetics industry in North America entering its traditional peak season.2. **Domestic Market**: Domestic azelaic acid prices follow the fluctuations of the international market. The mainstream quotation range in the East China region is 12,000-13,500 RMB/ton, an increase of about 500 RMB/ton compared to last month. Prices in the South China region are slightly higher than in East China due to increased logistics costs, with quotations ranging from 12,500-14,000 RMB/ton.II. Supply and Demand Situation1. **Supply Side**: - The operating rate of major domestic producers remains stable at 75%-80%. Some enterprises have temporarily suspended production due to environmental inspections, but the overall impact is limited. - Regarding imports, European imports have decreased by approximately 15% due to production unit maintenance. Supply from Southeast Asia remains stable, but transportation costs have increased.2. **Demand Side**: - The cosmetics industry accounts for over 60% of demand. Recently, demand has increased by about 10% month-on-month due to stockpiling for autumn and winter skincare products. - Demand in the pharmaceutical intermediate field is stable, accounting for about 25% of total demand, with no significant fluctuations. - Demand in other fields (such as plastic additives) accounts for about 15% and is less affected by seasonal factors.III. Cost and Profit1. **Raw Material Costs**: The price of the main raw material, azelaic anhydride, is influenced by crude oil fluctuations and has recently increased by about 3%, pushing up the production cost of azelaic acid.2. **Profit Margin**: The gross profit margin of domestic producers remains at 15%-18%, a decrease of about 2 percentage points compared to last month, mainly due to rising raw material costs and intensified market competition.IV. Relevant Policies and Industry Developments1. **Environmental Protection Policies**: Domestic environmental inspections have become stricter. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have suspended production due to non-compliance with emission standards, further increasing industry concentration.2. **Industry News**: A major international chemical giant has announced plans to build a new azelaic acid production unit in Asia, expected to be operational in 2025, which may affect the long-term supply landscape.V. Analysis and Judgment1. **Short Term (1-3 months)**: - Prices are expected to maintain an upward trend with fluctuations, supported by tightened supply and peak season demand, with an expected increase of about 3%-5%. - Attention should be paid to the progress of European production unit resumption and the enforcement intensity of domestic environmental policies.2. **Medium Term (3-6 months)**: - As European supply recovers and the North American demand peak season ends, prices may face downward pressure, but the decline is expected to be limited (about 2%-3%). - Before the release of new domestic production capacity, the market supply and demand structure remains relatively balanced.VI. Forecast1. **Price Range**: In the next three months, the mainstream domestic price is expected to range between 12,500-14,500 RMB/ton, while the international market price may range between 1,800-2,000 USD/ton (FOB China).2. **Risk Warnings**: - Significant fluctuations in crude oil prices may be transmitted to raw material costs, affecting price stability. - International trade friction may lead to increased import costs, supporting domestic prices. - If demand from the downstream cosmetics industry falls short of expectations, it may limit the room for price increases.